2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: 12 post-hype sleepers, including Shohei Ohtani and Brendan Rodgers

Don't you ... forget about them.

There was a point in time when these 12 players were a big deal. Maybe it was because of prospect status, maybe a role change, maybe something in the underlying numbers, but whatever the reason, the Fantasy Baseball-playing world took a shine to them.

But that time is past, and they've since been relegated to the pages of history. Or at least that's how we're treating them, too quick to make the leap from has-been to never-was even though most are in their mid-20s and have never had a better opportunity than they have right now.

Just because they burned you once doesn't mean they'll burn you forever. You need look no further than Kyle Tucker, Corbin Burnes, Dansby Swanson, Dominic Smith and Clint Frazier a year ago to find an instance when a post-hype sleeper panned out.

As late as these guys are going, it maybe be the purest form of sleeper there is.

Frankie Montas' apparent breakthrough in 2019, when he put together a 2.63 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 in 16 starts, was interrupted by a PED suspension, but the splitter he debuted that year was such a transformative pitch that most were giving him full credit for it anyway. So when he inexplicably cut his splitter usage last year, the resulting 5.60 ERA sent his backers scattering.

Sounds like he learned his lesson, though. "When I have that good splitter in my back pocket, why not use it more?" he said upon reporting for spring training. "I feel like in '19, that was the key." A 13-strikeout effort against Seattle to end last season should serve as a reminder how good Montas can be.

Shohei Ohtani's 2019 was so disastrous all the way around that it's not surprising Fantasy baseballers are over it. We waited almost two years for him to get back to being the two-way player we saw only briefly in 2018, and not only did his return to the mound fizzle but he forgot what he was doing at the plate as well.

After working tirelessly this offseason to right his mechanics on both sides, though, he's building buzz again, hitting long home runs while flashing a triple-digit fastball and a diving splitter. And with manager Joe Maddon talking about doing away with the stringent usage rules, it's possible we get the full Ohtani precisely when everyone's given up on the idea.

Austin Riley's hype has been in steady decline since he arrived with nine homers in 18 games two years ago. He has provided nothing of real value since then and went on to hit .239 with a .716 OPS last year. But underneath those front-facing numbers, there were signs of real improvement.

The Joey Gallo-like 36.4 percent strikeout rate from his rookie season dropped to a Tim Anderson-like 23.8 percent, which would suggest that putting the bat on the ball isn't even an obstacle for him anymore. And if you say it came at the expense of power, the rise average exit velocity would suggest otherwise. Riley profiled for Pete Alonso-level coming up through the minors, and 2020 may have been an important building block for achieving it.

After a solid but unspectacular rookie season, Nick Senzel barely got off the ground last year because of a groin injury and a bout with COVID, and then when rumors began circulating about him as a possible trade candidate this offseason, it sounded like could be the odd man out in a crowded Reds outfield. But the former No. 2 overall pick, who's still only 25, has since been named the team's starting center fielder and has already muscled a couple balls over the fence this spring. It's still a question how much power he'll develop, and injuries present a constant frustration. But with his speed and bat-to-ball skills, five-category production remains possible.

A suspension has kept Domingo German off the Fantasy baseball radar since September 2019, and given that the suspension was for domestic violence, some of us might have preferred it stay that way. But we can't ignore the reality of the 28-year-old lighting up spring training with the same arsenal that delivered 18 wins, a 4.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in 2019. He gets whiffs with all three of his pitches and keeps the ball in the strike zone, giving the Yankees little incentive to pass him over for Deivi Garcia, who still has minor-league options. If they had any intention to cut ties with German, they would have done so already.

While we're always clamoring for teams to promote their best prospects, Jo Adell is an example of one whose rapid rise served only to undermine his Fantasy appeal. Having seen him flail away against major-league pitching already, striking out at a 41.7 percent clip in his 124 at-bats last year, most of us will need some convincing before taking a flier on him again.

He remains one of the 10 best minor-leaguers, though, with big power and lots of speed, and it may take only a few more weeks of minor-league instruction (which wasn't available in a traditional sense last year, remember) for him to close that skills gap. Let's not forget Mike Trout hit .220 with a .672 OPS in his first 123 major-league at-bats.

Tarik Skubal was the more effective of the Tigers' high-profile pitcher call-ups last year, but still to the tune of a 5.63 ERA. He found some success by mixing in his changeup more in September and then went to work developing an even more effective counter to his plus-plus fastball this offseason. His time with Driveline Baseball, a data-driven development program in Seattle, pointed him to a splitter that has earned rave reviews in camp. Seeing as he managed a 10.9 K/9 rate and Trevor Bauer-like 12.9 percent swinging-strike rate while working with just one good pitch last year, a second one could be revelatory for a pitcher who had 17.4 K/9 in nine Double-A starts two years ago.

You may remember Spencer Howard as yet another high-profile pitching prospect who thudded in his big-league debut last year. You may not remember his velocity being a point of concern during that time. After all, he averaged 94.5 mph on his fastball, which is nothing to sneeze at. But it wasn't where it had been in the minors, and it turns out the culprit was some inflammation in his rotator cuff. He's more consistently topping 96 this spring, which has made for more differentiation with his changeup.

"He has a huge discrepancy," manager Joe Girardi said after Howard struck out four in two innings in his latest spring start. "We talk about it and say it's almost like it stops." 

Considering Howard's slider already had the look of a swing-and-miss pitch in 2019, any improvements to the rest of his arsenal could make him more like the guy who delivered a 2.03 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 11.9 K/9 in the minors two years ago.

Remember how much of a secret weapon this guy was supposed to be last year? How he had 42 homers and 24 steals between the majors and minors in 2019? How it was only a matter of him finding playing time in a crowded Rockies outfield? Yeah? Well, Sam Hilliard has a much clearer path to at-bats now, with Kevin Pillar out of the picture.

Things didn't turn out so well for him last year, his strikeout rate not-so-unexpectedly eating him alive, but he also didn't play consistently enough to find a groove, even against right-handers. There is no venue better suited for masking contact deficiencies than Coors Field, and if he's Plan A for center field now, the power-speed combo is as intriguing as it ever was.

One benefit of the Nolan Arenado trade is it finally freed up a spot for an up-and-comer, and unlike in past instances when we were left to guess (and usually disappointed), the Rockies have let us in on the plan this time: Ryan McMahon is moving over to third base, freeing up second for Brendan Rodgers, the former No. 3 overall pick and top prospect.

The 24-year-old has seen minimal time in the majors the past two years, most of it plagued by shoulder issues, but prior to his promotion from Triple-A in 2019, he hit .350 with nine homers and a 1.035 OPS. And in addition to the power, he has set a goal of 20 stolen bases this year. It's rare that you see that kind of upside at a position so thin -- and with the benefit of Coors Field to boot. Rodgers might be the quintessential post-hype sleeper.

It wasn't too long ago Francisco Mejia was regarded as the top catcher prospect in baseball, but more for his bat than glove. And it turns out the Padres (and Indians before them) had too many viable alternatives to suffer through the growing pains. The Rays don't, really. They've lived with Mike Zunino's .160 batting average long enough and seem willing to give Mejia the larger portion behind the plate.

His numbers in the majors so far have left something to be desired, but again, the playing time was never consistent. The one exception was a 51-game stretch in between returning from the minors in June 2019 and injuring his thumb in August, and during it, he hit .298 (45 for 151) with eight homers and an .857 OPS.

I know we've been down this road before with this guy, but that's precisely the point. Tyler O'Neill has 21 homers in 410 career at-bats. Over his final two minor-league seasons, he hit a combined 39 homers in 413 at-bats. We know the power is there. We've long salivated over the it, but we've gotten faked out with the playing time a few times too many. Now, though, there is no one else. Dexter Fowler is gone. It's O'Neill's way or the highway.

Regular playing time may well smooth out his consistencies, and yet it seems like everyone's giving up on him right when the path is clear for him, not even drafting him as a fifth outfielder in a 15-team league.

Others I'm not as high on (which might make them the best sleepers of all!)

• Willie Calhoun, DH, Rangers
• Dylan Cease, SP, White Sox
• David Dahl, OF, Rangers
• Garrett Hampson, 2B/OF, Rockies
• Mitch Keller, SP, Pirates
• Carter Kieboom, 3B, Nationals
• Nate Lowe, 1B, Rangers
• Victor Robles, OF, Nationals
• Evan White, 1B, Mariners

So who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 17 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big-time last season.