Coming off arguably the best season since Barry Bonds hung up his elbow guard, Bryce Harper nonetheless still had plenty of doubters coming into this season. If all he did as a 23-year-old was replicate his breakout season, Harper was clearly the best player in Fantasy. And given his age, it wasn't hard to see how Harper might even improve on his astounding 42-homer, .330/.460/.649 campaign from 2015.
And for most of the first month of the season, Harper looked like he was doing just that. He homered on opening day, and then proceeded to do so eight more times in the first 18 games of the season. By April 24, when Harper came off the bench to club a game-winning homer against the Twins, he was hitting .323/.405/.855, and looked to have secured the "Best Player in Baseball" title for good from Mike Trout.
However, while Trout has hit .326 with a 1.016 OPS since April 25, Harper has fallen on very tough times. He is hitting just .231 in 56 games since, and while he still sports an elite .400 on-base percentage thanks to 52 walks -- 12 intentional -- Harper has just 10 extra-base hits in that span, for a .352 slugging percentage. Far from looking like the best hitter in baseball, Harper has been flat out disappointing for the last two months.
It isn't all his fault, of course. After Harper absolutely terrorized pitchers in April, they basically stopped throwing the ball in the strike zone, which caused a natural reaction from Harper: He started walking and striking out a lot more often. As this chart from FanGraphs.com shows, Harper's 15-day rolling BB% and K% spiked from games 25 through 40:
However, he hasn't been walking or striking out at particularly outstanding rates either way over the last 25 games or so, which basically covers the month of June. However, his production hasn't really rebounded; Harper is hitting .276 in June, up from .200 in May, but isn't hitting for nearly as much power or walking as much, which mutes the effect. And pitchers deserve at least some credit for pitching to where Harper has trouble (graphs courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net):
Harper is hardly unique among hitters, in that he has trouble turning low-and-away pitches into extra-base hits. However, his career also shows that if you miss by just a bit and catch the strike zone, he's going to make you pay -- he has an ISO above .225 in seven of nine spots in the strike zone, including .226 on the outside corner.
Pitchers aren't dumb. They know where Harper's relative weak spots are, and they have been absolutely pounding the outside against him lately. Just compare his zone profile from April to June.
April:
June:
There is a pronounced red shift toward low-and-away in both samples, but it's clear pitchers have been much more effective at hitting their spots in June, giving Harper far fewer pitches over the plate, while peppering his cold spots much more effectively. Pitchers have always approached Harper with caution (only 38.1 percent of pitches thrown to him have been in the strike zone in his career), but they have been especially successful at limiting him lately. It's on Harper to adjust to the adjustments now.
His response in May was to simply stop swinging, and it worked to an extent; Harper got on base a ton, despite a low batting average. What is interesting is, pitchers didn't respond to Harper drawing 31 walks in May by attacking the strike zone, but Harper did mostly abandon his passive approach at the plate:
It's been a tough couple of months for Harper, and he is clearly trying to find answers. Opposing pitchers are doubling down on an approach that has helped neutralize Harper, and he hasn't been able to find an approach that works yet. His more aggressive approach of late hasn't worked, so it might make sense for Harper to go back to taking more pitches. You want to see a hitter like Harper producing more runs, but if pitchers aren't going to give him anything to handle, I'd rather see him getting on base, running and scoring more.
The upside to going back to that more patient approach is, at some point, pitchers likely reach a breaking point. You don't want Harper to hurt you, but at some point the self-inflicted damage of putting him on base without much resistance would probably lead to pitchers being willing to challenge him a bit more.
It's a delicate balance Harper has to strike, and one that few hitters in baseball have ever truly mastered. And, frankly, few have ever truly had to master to the extent Harper is. However, we've seen something similar with Giancarlo Stanton over the last month, as pitchers fed him a steady diet of low-and-away breaking balls until he started simply dumping them into right field for singles. That forced pitchers to abandon the strategy, which has helped Stanton get back on track of late.
Pitchers get to dictate the terms of engagement with hitters, and right now, they are taking advantage of Harper. However, he can still make adjustments to tilt the balance back in his favor. What Harper is doing right now just isn't working, but he's certainly not a lost cause. It just might require Harper getting out of his comfort zone again.
