Fantasy Baseball: Prioritizing pitcher pickups from Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith to Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes

As is often the case this time of year, the waiver wire is overrun with intriguing starting pitchers. Scott White helps you prioritize which ones to add.

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Pitchers, am I right?

Each start is just a small window into their range of outcomes, and yet so much time passes in between starts that you're liable to miss out on the most intriguing pickups if you don't throw caution to the wind and make your move.

Of course, it's never a small number of pitchers that impress off the waiver wire this time of year, and you probably have only a roster spot or two to play with. You could use some help prioritizing, in other words, and I'm here to provide it.

For each of these many, many arms who've made impression out of the gate, I've assigned a "rosterability" rating ranging from 1 to 5, with 5 being more or less must-own. I've also broken them down by ownership percentage to help you key in on the ones most likely to be available in your league.

Ownership range: 80 percent and over

These pitchers almost certainly aren't available in your league, but they were leaking helium as the season approached because of some disconcerting performances this spring. It seems silly now, in retrospect.

The sleeper hype died down for Collin McHugh amid sagging numbers and concerning reports about his velocity, but when the bell sounded, he was throwing more or less as hard as when we last saw him start. His best swing-and-miss pitch in this weekend's start, the slider, he didn't even have prior to last year's stint in the bullpen, having picked it up from self-made success Brad Peacock.

After finally getting his high-end stuff under control with the Rays late last season, Tyler Glasnow seemed to lose it again this spring amid reports of him tweaking his delivery. But he threw 66.2 percent of his pitches for strikes in his 2019 debut, an actual improvement from that 11-start stretch last year, and issued just one walk.

Ownership range: 60-79 percent

Only once last year did Trevor Williams have more swinging strikes than he did Sunday, but there was nothing in his arsenal to tip off any real change. Seeing as he had a 3.11 ERA last year, he's a reasonable bet to be at least serviceable this year, but his relatively low ceiling makes him a lower priority with so many emerging options on waivers right now, especially since there are doubts about last year's legitimacy. 

It was an impressive first outing from a pitcher fresh off Tommy John surgery. The question is whether pulling Michael Pineda after just 40 pitches was an abundance of caution for a player still working his way back or a newfangled strategy designed to get the most impact out of a two-pitch pitcher. Early indications are unclear.

With a four-pitch arsenal and workhorse build, Brandon Woodruff is overdue for this opportunity and looked in his first outing like the pitcher everyone's hoping Jimmy Nelson will be. Great offense backing him, too, but there is the issue of him being only RP-eligible until he makes five starts.

There's a reason Corbin Burnes piled up so many strikeouts in his first major-league start Sunday: He set a record for the highest spin rate ever recorded by a starting pitcher — and by a huge margin. Of course, the fact he's only a two-pitch pitcher may have had something to do with him fading the second time through the lineup, but he clearly has some skills to work with.

Ownership range: 40-59 percent

Trevor Richards's performance Friday wasn't as electric as what some of the other Stallions delivered over the weekend, but he showed a willingness to use his new breaking ball, giving him a much-needed third pitch. And of course has the best singular pitch (his changeup) of any of the Marlins' fearsome young four.

It could have gone better for Domingo German, as always seems to be the case for him, but one-hitting a major-league team with one hand tied behind his back (he unleashed only two of his three swing-and-miss offerings, eschewing the changeup) is an in-arguably impressive feat. Then again, that team was the Tigers (more on them later).

Caleb Smith's 21 swinging strikes Monday were the most that any of the pitchers listed here had in his first turn, and he did it against a Mets lineup that held its own over the weekend against Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. He had 19 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings this spring and 10.2 per nine innings across 16 major-league starts last season, featuring one of the best swing-and-miss fastballs in the game.

Pablo Lopez, owner of a 1.44 ERA in the minors last season and a 0.90 ERA this spring, nonetheless showed an improved changeup in Saturday's start against the Rockies, lowering the velocity to create more separation between it in his fastball, and it was responsible for nine of his 18 swinging strikes. If he sustains that kind of bat-missing ability, the ceiling is sky high.

Ownership range: 39 percent and under

Jake Odorizzi's track record of mediocrity is already a mark against him, and then there's the fact that 15 of his 16 swinging strikes Saturday came on the fastball, which just doesn't happen unless the spin rate is off the charts. More likely, it was the result of him facing an Indians lineup with just two certifiable major-leaguers.

We've long dumped on Sandy Alcantara in spite of his top-prospect pedigree because the minor-league numbers, namely the strikeout rate, left much to be desired, but in seven major-league starts between two seasons, missing bats hasn't exactly been his problem. He recorded 13 or more swinging strikes in four of those starts, including Sunday's, pitching at least seven innings in each.

Lucas Giolito shortened his arm action, raised the RPM on his fastball and picked up a little velocity to boot, and the result was a stellar outing for a former top prospect mostly written off in Fantasy. He has faked us out in the past, but there's plenty to work with, including two secondary offerings that also showed swing-and-miss ability Sunday.

Frankie Montas' newly developed splitter was responsible for four of his 10 swinging strikes Sunday and at least partially responsible for his 0.56 ERA this spring. His strikeouts haven't spiked or anything because of it, but sometimes the development of a third pitch makes all the difference for a pitcher who's known for throwing hard and not much else.

Speaking of splitters, Yonny Chirinos was already known to have a good one, and he dominated the Astros with it Sunday, inducing whiffs on one-third of them. He actually started the game instead of following an opener, which allowed him to pick up a quality start (it matters in some leagues). I'm skeptical of the upside, but it's possible he's just better in his second big-league season.

Special consideration: Tigers-Blue Jays series

I'm reluctant to read anything into these performances considering it was two of the majors' worst lineups facing off against each other. Granted, the game's inherent variability ensures that every team has its good days, but it's still suspicious how dominant every middling-to-low-end pitcher was in this series, as you can see:

Marcus Stroman of course has a track record and was never at full health last season, so he deserves the benefit of the doubt even if the upside is decidedly second-tier. A return to health may have also contributed to Aaron Sanchez's performance, and while I personally don't have a great affinity for Matthew Boyd, many Fantasy prognosticators do.

The one highly available arm who I was making some kind of play for, though, was Matt Shoemaker, who when healthy has been someone who pitches deep into games with a reasonably good strikeout rate thanks to his splitter. For me, it was mostly a points league play since I don't expect him to be much help in ERA or WHIP, but in deeper Rotisserie leagues, he could be of some use.