Fantasy Baseball: Top 50 keepers for 2023 based on last year's average draft position (ADP)
Rankings for leagues that make you forfeit something to keep a player
By
Scott White
•
2 min read
The truth is every person's keeper situation is unique to him -- different rules, different costs, different needs, different variables all around. There can be no one-size-fits-all keeper rank list, and any that you see out there needs to be taken with an enormous grain of salt.
Including this one.
I've been composing this list for a good many years now, and what I've learned during that time is that it works better as a fun thought exercise than an authoritative guide. That doesn't mean it can't guide you at all, but you have to be clever enough to tailor it to your own specific circumstances. Then again, that's true for all Fantasy advice.
Before we go any further, you should note that this list is for a particular kind of keeper league. Some just ask you to pick your best players, without any thought as to what you invested in them, but the way I see it, that's what regular rankings are for. This list is for the sort keeper league that asks you to consider the value of the player you're keeping and forfeit something, whether it's a pick or draft dollars, commensurate with that value. Sometimes there's a markup -- like if you drafted a player in Round 11 last year, you can keep him in Round 8 this year -- but sometimes not. Again, I can't make a list that applies perfectly to everyone.
So what I've done here is review every player's average draft position from last year, both in 5x5 leagues (using FantasyPros data) and in points leagues (using CBS Sports data). I've then converted that ADP into a round number (presuming a 12-team league) and determined how eager I am to keep that player relative to that round.
It's not as simple prioritizing the biggest discounts. More than anything, I want impact players, which is why the top of this list is compromised mostly of first-rounders even though keeping them will probably cost me my first-round pick. The extent of the discount is probably my second priority. I also consider how old the player is and how confident I am in his profile, though these are of lesser concern in a keeper league, which has tons of roster turnover every year, than a dynasty league, which has very little.
Confused yet? The more I try to explain it, the deeper we sink into this quagmire, so let's just get on with the list. One last point, real quick: I'm highlighting only 50 players here. There are more than 50 quality keepers, no doubt, so don't freak out if that one you're dead set on didn't make the cut.
Top 50 keepers for 2023
This ADP is probably underselling where he was drafted in keeper leagues last year, but no matter the extent of the discount, it's a welcome one for a 22-year-old already in the No. 1 overall discussion.
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At his best, he's probably still the best player in Fantasy Baseball, and all the baggage, while frustrating, gives you a chance to secure him at some sort of discount.
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It wasn't long ago you would have been delighted to have Acuna slotted in as your first-rounder for the next decade, so don't let a down year, with obvious explanations for it, steer you away.
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Right there with Acuna (except even more so in points leagues), this was a player deemed to be untouchable, regardless of the keeper cost, just a year ago. You can't forfeit that kind of asset for what may turn out to be a blip on the way to a Hall of Fame career.
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He's my top choice for 2023 after being far and away the best player in 2022, so even if the markup elevates his keeper cost to Round 1, it's worth it.
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He's lived up to his high ranking on this list year after year and should continue to do so even as he enters his 30s, making across-the-board contributions at one of the most critical positions to fill early.
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Though he's not my choice to be drafted No. 1 overall, he is a popular one, and every other player in that discussion figures to be kept. You simply can't expect to do better with the pick you're giving up to keep him.
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He's the most likely first-round pick other than Julio Rodriguez to be kept for something less, and he's well worth it, being nearly as strong as Aaron Judge but also five years younger.
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Whatever doubts we had about sinking a first-round pick into him last year have since been refuted, and if you can keep this five-category threat for anything less, wowie.
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Even if keeping him means forfeiting your first-round pick, which may be the case depending on the markup in your league, he has the look of a long-term fixture there as a 26-year-old third baseman whose Statcast page is all lit up in red.
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If every other surefire first-rounder needs to be kept, then so does Betts, who's not as old as you think he is, by the way. You shouldn't forfeit a stud if you're not confident you can get one in his place.
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Ohtani is more like a late first-rounder than an early-first rounder, at least in a weekly league where you have to choose between his hitting and pitching stats, but he's lived up to it two years in a row and is still in his prime at 28.
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My first instinct was to rank him even higher because locking him in at this cost is insane if he's really who he was in 2022, but the poor plate discipline and high ground-ball rate compel me to exercise some restraint.
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He brings a similar risk/reward profile to Harris, but at less of a discount, and I do wonder if his poor plate discipline will hold him back in points leagues.
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He's not worth a first-round pick, if that's where the markup takes him, but after back-to-back years of MVP-caliber production, he's one of the clear standouts at the position most critical to fill early. Second round would be fine.
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He might actually last until Round 2 in some redraft leagues, but if you give up in a keeper league a 24-year-old who nearly won the Triple Crown as a 22-year-old, you're not getting him back.
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Like his teammate Guerrero, Bichette is coming off a down season that makes him less than a slam-dunk first-rounder in redraft, but the heights he's already achieved at such a young age should have you clinging to him like grim death in a keeper league.
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Suffice it to say he would place even higher in rankings specific to points leagues, where his unrivaled capacity for innings makes him a clear first-rounder.
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He led the majors in K/9 and basically every ERA estimator as a rookie, making him a no-brainer to keep with a late-round price tag even though he still has to prove longevity and durability.
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I'd rather not dedicate my first-round pick to a pitcher, but if you presume all the other projected first-rounders are kept (as I recommend), then you can't afford to fritter away a guy who could go on a multi-year run as the presumed No. 1 at the position.
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The hard-throwing left-hander might have been the best pitcher in baseball for the first four months, and while his September raised questions about how well he'll hold up, it nonetheless may be years before we see him drafted this late again.
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I never imagined back when I first started making this list that so many closers would be on it someday, but saves have come to be in such high demand that even a markup to Round 6 would represent an obvious discount for the best and second-best closer (see below).
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Between Clase and Diaz, I'd go the other way in a redraft league, but in a keeper format, I'll give the edge to the guy four years Diaz's youth.
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If the markup is more than just a couple rounds for Clase and Diaz, Williams might actually be a better keeper if you're willing to trust he's locked into the closer role, which he seems to be.
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Though most acknowledge this Rookie of the Year favorite is the top prospect in baseball now, that wasn't at all the case going into last season. It means he may have genuinely gone undrafted even in keeper leagues, making for a potential long-term discount.
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Also in the discussion for top prospect overall, Carroll was more highly regarded than Henderson at this time a year ago, but it's still possible he may not have been top of mind in keeper league drafts, making now a fine time to lock him in.
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The discount will be minimal, and he certainly isn't worth a first-round pick if that's where the markup in your league puts him. But he's a reliable slugger at a time when those are becoming harder to find.
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The unfortunate thing is Schwarber was kind of a popular breakout pick heading into last season, so while he indeed broke out with 46 home runs, the keeper discount is a fairly modest one
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I'm not head over heels for Gallen the way some analysts seem to be. I have a hard time squaring his poor swinging-strike rate with the rest of this numbers. But this is nonetheless a nice discount for at worst a top-25 arm.
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The AL Cy Young runner-up can certainly suffice as your No. 1 as one of the game's premier strikeout artists, but his poor control presents a level of downside that drops him a few spots on this list.
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If the markup is more than two rounds, you may be paying more than his redraft cost to keep him, but part of what you're paying for is his 24 years of age and massive frame that's built to last.
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With an early-season call-up anticipated, Rutschman got enough preseason buzz that he was probably drafted earlier in keeper leagues than what's depicted by ADP. It's still a fine discount, but catchers are lower-priority to begin with.
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You'll find steeper discounts than this, but Varsho is a rare specimen as a catcher who gets everyday at-bats (because he's actually an outfielder) and also steals bases.
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The hype on Cruz last spring was pretty intense, no doubt pushing his ADP beyond this point in keeper leagues. Between that and his high-risk/high-reward profile, he slots a bit behind Henderson and Carroll.
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The oft-injured 25-year-old (as of Feb. 1) is nonetheless one of the best future assets at second base, bringing power and speed along with an improving bat-to-ball profile, which makes him worth keeping even if the discount is a modest one.
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Bautista went from no-name rookie to possibly lights-out closer at a time when closers are more coveted than ever, and while he still has to prove longevity, the discount is massive.
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Yeah, he's 40, but he was the best pitcher in 5x5 leagues last year and is likely to be again. I don't know how you don't keep him unless you're just stacked with young studs.
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A markup of just a couple rounds makes him not such a discount anymore, but even so, it's probably worth hanging onto a pitcher with top-five potential given how few true aces are likely to be available in your draft.
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Though his Statcast readings make him out to be something of an overachiever, you can't afford to be too picky at second base, and the cost is so low that you might get to savor this discount for years to come.
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Fair to say his days as a reliever are over after a year in which he proved to be the hardest-to-hit pitcher in baseball, which was a constant throughout his minor-league career as well. There are workload and durability concerns, however.
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This cost makes for an incredible discount for a guy likely to be drafted in Round 5 or so this year, but seeing as he's about to turn 30 and has major plate discipline issues, I question how long you'll get to savor said discount.
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You probably have your catcher for the next several here given the extent of the discount and the durability of the hitting profile, but Kirk may not have the power to measure up as a full-time DH if he ultimately winds up there.
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He's in theory the next great OPS hog with his superlative plate discipline and high exit velocity readings, but he demonstrated it for only a short stretch last season and plays the deepest position in Fantasy.
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He's a bit like Cristian Javier in that his breakout coincided with the end of the juiced ball era, changing his fly-ball tendencies from a strength to a weakness, but he's even more at the league's mercy because he doesn't miss bats at as high of a rate.
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I struggle with how to handle prospects for this list, ultimately coming down on the side of less is more since it's a top 50 and not a catalog of everyone worth considering, but Rodriguez is a special case.
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One way to secure an ace keeper on the cheap is to draft him the year he's recovering from Tommy John surgery, and while Glasnow has durability issues beyond that, he was straight fire after returning late last season.
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He was good enough as a rookie to trust he'll at least be of some use in 2023, and with his pedigree, there's a chance this discount pays off for years to come.
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A delayed breakout means Wright isn't as young as you might think, and while the discount is significant, regression concerns are warranted due to his modest strikeout rate.
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It was a close call between him and Christian Walker, two of 2022's biggest overachievers at first base, and ultimately it came down to Lowe being four years younger.
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I wouldn't fault you for opting for up-and-comers like Jesus Luzardo, Hunter Greene or Nick Lodolo instead, but seeing as longevity is something you can't really presume at starting pitcher, I'm going with the guy likely to matter more in 2023.
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