2017 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Picking at No. 12 overall in PPR leagues

When you're picking at the end of the draft, you're either reaching or hoping someone falls. Heath Cummings says you need a little bit of both.

Drafting from: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12

I am still not a fan of picking from the 12th spot, but it's a lot better when you're able to take a running back with one of those two picks. I'm not telling you to force someone who doesn't belong, but if LeSean McCoy or Devonta Freeman falls in your lap, it makes things a lot easier later.

What doesn't make things any easier is taking a quarterback in the fourth round. I'll talk more about that below, but some of that roster crunch was made up for by the fact I was able to land C.J. Anderson in Round 6. That left me feeling pretty secure at running back, so I stocked up on wide receivers with four of my next five picks. The results were mixed.

Here's the rest of my team at No. 12 overall:

• 1.12 T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND
  
• 2.13 LeSean McCoy, RB, BUF
  
• 3.36 Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR
  
• 4.37 Tom Brady, QB, NE
  
• 5.60 Tyreek Hill, WR, KC
  
• 6.61 C.J. Anderson, RB, DEN
  
• 7.84 Corey Davis, WR, TEN
  
• 8.85 Zach Ertz, TE, PHI
  
• 9.108 Rishard Matthews, WR, TEN
  
• 10.109 Adam Thielen, WR, MIN
  
• 11.132 Kenny Britt, WR, CLE
  
• 12.133 Jamal Charles, RB, DEN
  
• 13.156 Ravens DST
  
• 14.157 Justin Tucker, K, BAL
  

I made a huge mistake at the 9/10 turn. I'd been waiting two and a half rounds to take Mike Wallace (because I knew Dave and Jamey wouldn't), but I waited so long that he even fell off my radar. I'd much rather have Wallace than Adam Thielen, and I'd feel a lot better about my wide receiver depth as well.

It's good to wait on players you know will last another round or two, just so long as you don't forget about them.

Favorite pick: LeSean McCoy

I absolutely love landing McCoy here. I already told you about the philosophical side of wanting to start with a running back and a wide receiver from the 12th pick, but I feel even better about it when that RB is McCoy.

McCoy was the only player in the NFL with at least 200 rush attempts, 50 receptions and an average of greater than 5 yards per carry. He's a workhorse who's also efficient and involved in the passing game. The Bills may not rush for as many touchdowns in 2017, but I would expect McCoy will get a higher percentage of them with Mike Gillislee gone.

McCoy's everything you want in a running back, and I expect at least one more top-five season from him.

Pick you might regret: Tom Brady

Tom Brady is my No. 1 QB in 2017, and any time you can get him in Round 4 is an excellent value. It's still a risk, and not because of Brady's age or the unpredictability of Bill Belichick. It was made easier by the balance of the first turn, but even then I'm left in a situation where Tyreek Hill is my No. 2 WR and Corey Davis is my No. 3. I don't love either of those players in that spot.

Would this team be better with Golden Tate and Drew Brees as opposed to Brady and Hill? Quite possibly. At the very least I would feel safer. Taking Brady at this point increases my team's upside, but it also means I needed to do a good job of drafting running backs and wide receivers late. 

Player who could make or break your team: Corey Davis

The 7/8 turn is when the upside of Davis' talent becomes too much to pass on. I mean, look at those numbers. I don't care where he played or who the competition was. Davis has a ceiling comparable to any young receiver in the league and a young elite QB ready to grow with him. The question is how much of that growth will happen in his rookie season.

The Titans receiving corps is suddenly crowded and there aren't a ton of targets to go around. If Davis seizes the No. 1 job in camp and never looks back, he's looking at a ceiling of 120 targets. The more likely scenario is he's in the 90-100 range. DeSean Jackson was the only receiver to top 1,000 yards with less than 110 targets in 2016. Only seven receivers have done it in the past five years. 

Davis doesn't have to get to 1,000 yards to justify this draft position, but he will need to make the most of his targets to be a reliable flex on a week-to-week basis.