2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Who should I draft with the No. 10 pick in PPR?
How early is too early for Keenan Allen in PPR? Not the 10th pick.
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5 min read
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Editor's note: Our latest PPR pick-by-pick series was done in August prior to the third preseason game and is a three-man draft with Heath Cummings, Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard, with each one selecting four teams in this 12-team mock. The goal of this series is to show you positions to draft in these spots as much as the players selected, so take that into account when viewing each team.
Building a team from every draft slot in PPR and non-PPR
Keenan Allen was the No. 3 receiver in PPR scoring in 2017, and we still may not have seen his ceiling. That should tell you all you need to know about whether he's worthy of a pick in the first round in this format.
Allen caught 102 passes for 1,393 yards on 159 targets, and somehow scored just six touchdowns. Now I'm sure there are some of you out there screaming: "Allen doesn't score touchdowns!" Well, he does. As a rookie, he caught eight touchdown passes on 102 targets. In his third year he caught four touchdown passes in eight games. His career rate, even after last year, is one score every 22 targets and every 15 catches. Even at that rate he should have scored seven times last season. And that rate is probably too low.
Ever since Allen arrived in San Diego, the Chargers have had Antonio Gates, and they've focused on tight ends in the red zone. That was supposed to be a boon to Hunter Henry in 2018, but he's been lost for the year to a torn ACL. It's possible Gates comes back at 38 years old, but whether it's him or Virgil Green, I can't imagine tight ends are getting the red-zone love they have in the past for the Chargers.
Allen's 2017 success was not a fluke. In PPR, I once again have him ranked third. And if he's there at pick 10, you should be thrilled to land him.
Here's the rest of my team from No. 10 overall:
- 1.10 Keenan Allen, WR, LAC
- 2.3 Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN
- 3.10 Adam Thielen, WR, MIN
- 4.3 Lamar Miller, RB, HOU
- 5.10 Jimmy Graham, TE, GB
- 6.3 Tom Brady, QB, NE
- 7.10 Kenny Stills, WR, MIA
- 8.3 Tarik Cohen, RB, CHI
- 9.10 James White, RB, NE
- 10.3 Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC
- 11.10 Devin Funchess, WR, CAR
- 12.3 D'Onta Foreman, RB, HOU
- 13.10 John Brown, WR, BAL
- 14.3 Eagles DST
This is about as balanced an approach as one can take, with two running backs, two receivers, a tight end and a quarterback after six rounds. It isn't necessarily a pattern I follow, but it does have its benefits — the main one being that you are free to attack running back and receiver without any constraints about position. You can do that either by scooping up boring values or exciting upside, and I generally prefer a mix of both. Admittedly, this group leans more to the value side, but there is hidden upside in the last four non-DST picks.
Ekeler is an exciting back who has huge upside if Melvin Gordon gets hurt, but could be good in PPR even if Gordon stays healthy. While Allen should benefit in the red zone due to the Chargers lack of talent at tight end, I'd also expect more passes to the running backs between the 20s.
I believe D.J. Moore will surpass Funchess eventually, but that may not happen this year. Funchess has already built red zone rapport with Cam Newton. If Greg Olsen isn't the same as he was before his foot injury that role could expand further. There's a chance you're getting 120 targets in the 11th round with Funchess.
Foreman was the best running back in Houston last year, so I'm not even sure Lamar Miller's health matters to his value. What does matter is whether Foreman can fully recover from his torn Achilles, something we've seen few NFL players do. If he does, there's a chance he wrestles the job away from Miller by midseason, and Deshaun Watson's mobility makes that an exciting prospect.
Finally, Brown has been the star of the preseason in Baltimore. I still expect Michael Crabtree will lead the team in targets, but that's feeling less and less certain with every positive report. Brown has the ability to take the top off the defense, but he's also a very good intermediate route runner when he's healthy.
Favorite pick: Dalvin Cook
Cook is one of my favorite breakout candidates at any position. In fact, it feels like cheating to call him that. In 3.5 games last year he had 444 total yards, two touchdowns and 11 receptions. He's on one of the best teams in the NFL, and his versatile skillset means he'll be valuable even if that changes. Don't worry about Latavius Murray. Of course they're going to share carries, but you should expect Cook will shoulder at least 60 percent of the load, and that's plenty on a team I expect to approach 450 rush attempts.
Pick I might regret: Tom Brady
Yes, Tom Brady is 41 years old and won't have Julian Edelman for the first four games of the season. No, that's not really why I'm scared I might regret this pick. The thing is, Drew Brees was available a round later, and I could see Brady and Brees being close to a wash in Fantasy. I missed a run on running backs (Rex Burkhead, Marshawn Lynch, Isaiah Crowell, Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, Chris Carson) that could have given me better depth at the position in order to take Brady. If Cook or Miller let me down, the Brady pick could be a bad one.
Player who could make or break my team: Jimmy Graham
Jimmy Graham is generally the type of player I try to avoid. He's about to turn 32. He changed teams. He was mostly awful in 2017 other than touchdowns. I hate betting on touchdowns. But if you were ever going to do it, this would be the time.
Graham has reached double-digit scores four times in his career, and he's going to play with Aaron Rodgers, who has the highest touchdown rate amongst active quarterbacks. Rodgers lost Jordy Nelson in the offseason, and Graham sure looks like the second option in the red zone. He's easily the second most likely tight end to score double-digit touchdowns. If he does that with this core, my team will be really tough to beat. If he's 2017 Jimmy Graham without the touchdowns, I wasted a fifth-round pick and I'll be streaming tight end.
