2023 Fantasy Football Tight End Preview: Sleepers, breakouts, busts, streamers and more
Everything you need to know about the tight end position before your Fantasy Football draft
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4 min read
It is a long-established rule in Fantasy Football that you cannot trust rookie right ends. The community forgot that two years ago with Kyle Pitts, boosted him up to a third round ADP, and were quickly reminded. Thankfully, the lesson has stuck and no rookie tight ends are being drafted in the top 100 picks of Fantasy Football drafts in 2023. But there are three who have wowed this offseason and appear to be in line for significant roles to open the season.
The most popular on draft boards is Dalton Kincaid, the only tight end selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Kincaid is paired up with Josh Allen and is expected to be used a lot in the slot for the Bills this season. What we don't know is what Kincaid's snap rate will look like. Dawson Knox is still a big part of the team's plans and it is possible early in the year that Knox will be on the field when the team only has one tight end out there.
Two tight ends who may play even more than Kincaid early are Sam LaPorta and Luke Musgrave. In fact, there has been some talk that LaPorta could be the No. 2 target for Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions, while Musgrave has been a top target earner during the preseason for Green Bay.
I am still skeptical that any of these rookies will be a consistent contributor as rookies, but they are all worth a look in the double-digit rounds as potential sleepers. I just wouldn't plan on starting them Week 1.
Draft strategy
Around here we are big fans of the "great or late" tight end strategy.. The strategy is in the name. Either draft a great tight end or wait very late, maybe even just stream the position. But even within this context, you need to define great and late.
Travis Kelce is the only tight end who definitely fits in the great category, and I think Mark Andrews has done enough to sneak in as well. There are arguments to be made for at least a handful of other guys, but not strong ones. If I miss on Kelce and Andrews, the only reason I'm drafting a tight end in the next six rounds is if I feel like I'm stealing them. For example, T.J. Hockenson fell to Round 6 in one draft, perfect. Dallas Goedert in Round 7, that's cool. too.
As for late, I would define that as Round 10 or later in a standard CBS league, but you can stretch it all the way to Round 15. One solid strategy, assuming you build a great team everywhere but tight end, is to take one of the young upside guys in Round 10 or 11 followed by a veteran you can stream in Week 1. I have a list of them below.
In tight end premium leagues, Kelce has an argument to be the first overall pick and Andrews should go at the one-two turn. Everyone else should be bumped up at least two rounds higher than where we have them ranked. You can even consider flexing a tight end in that format.
Here are my sleepers, breakouts, and busts at the position:
Sleepers
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Remember Smith? He was a tight end sleeper fixture for a couple of years. He may finally wake up. One of the undercover stories of the offseason is that Smith appears to be the No. 1 tight end for Joe Burrow and the Bengals. That role has been worth five targets per game in the past, which is more than enough to sustain a top-12 tight end in an elite offense. Smith is free in most leagues right now.
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I know Higbee isn't exciting, but he's likely the No. 2 target for Matthew Stafford behind only Cooper Kupp and he faces Seattle in Week 1. No team gave up more Fantasy points to tight ends in 2022. I love the idea of pairing Higbee with Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, or Trey McBride and starting Higbee Week 1 against Seattle.
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Breakout
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When you contextualize Pitts' first two seasons, he has been better than his Fantasy numbers. His 23.5% target per route run rate would be good for a wide receiver, or any tight end, much less a tight end in his first two years in the league. His 2.02 yards per route run as a rookie was flat-out elite. Pitts has shown that he's every bit as good as his draft capital suggests. He just needs an offense that doesn't look like it was constructed in the 1940s and a quarterback who can hit the side of the barn. What we saw from Desmond Ridder, and Arthur Smith when Ridder was the starter, gives me hope. Ridder averaged more than five more pass attempts per game than Marcus Mariota and averaged 33 more yards per game in his final three starts. More importantly, we generally expect quarterbacks to take their biggest leap from Year 1 to Year 2, and we often see coaches extend their QBs leash when that leap happens. If Ridder takes even a step forward, Pitts should be an easy top-five tight end.
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Freiermuth will be counting on improvement from a second-year passer, but that's the norm, not an outlier. Most breakout tight ends finish first or second on their team in targets, and Freiermuth cleared that hurdle last year, out targeting George Pickens by 14 targets despite playing one fewer game. I expect 100-plus targets from Freiermuth this year, and I expect touchdown regression for Freiermuth that gets him closer to his rookie total (seven) than two last year.
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Bust
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Kittle is a superstar talent, so this isn't a fun case to make. But when Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk are all healthy, I fully expect Kittle to be the fourth option in a low-volume pass offense that may suffer from subpar quarterback play. Kittle produced below 40 yards in nine of his last 13 games in 2022, including the playoffs.
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I believe Waller should be the No. 1 target in New York, but I am concerned about just about everything else. He turns 31 in September, he has missed 14 games the past two years, his new quarterback has only topped 15 pass touchdowns once in his career, and Waller himself has only scored more than 3 touchdowns once. The past two seasons the No. 1 target earner on the Giants has seen 76 targets. If things go well for them, they'll be a low-volume pass offense again, so I'm not sure there is huge upside even when Waller is healthy.
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Numbers to Know
- 18.6 -- Travis Kelce has averaged 18.6 PPR FPPG over the past three seasons. That is 3.9 more than any other tight end.
- 994 -- Dallas Goedert was on pace for 994 receiving yards last year. If he stays healthy and his touchdown rate regresses then he has TE2 overall upside.
- 28.6% -- Mark Andrews led all tight ends last year with a 28.6% share of his team's targeted air yards. That may fall with the additions at WR but Kelce and Kyle Pitts were the only two other tight ends about 20%.
- 27.1% -- Chigoziem Okonkwo ranked second among tight ends with a 27.1% target per route run rate; only Pitts was better.
- 26.3% -- The Browns were one of five teams with a tight end target percentage over 26% last year. If Deshaun Watson is his old self, that could elevate David Njoku to the top five at the position.
- 26.2% -- T.J. Hockenson played 10 games with the Vikings in 2023, but 26.2% of his Fantasy points with them came from one game against the Giants.
Draft to Stream
Tyler Higbee at Seahawks
The Seahawks allowed the most Fantasy points to opposing tight ends last year. Higbee didn't fare well against them, but he also had to face them without Matthew Stafford. The Rams' receiving corps is still very thin behind Cooper Kupp, and I would expect Higbee to open the year as Stafford's No. 2 option, just as he did last year when he had 48 targets in the first five weeks of the season. Hopefully, he's able to do more with them.
Gerald Everett vs Dolphins, at Titans
Everett is the lone holdover from last year's piece. Let's just hope he gets off to a hot start again. The matchups should help, as the Dolphins and Titans gave up the fifth and sixth-most Fantasy points to tight ends last year. There is a new offensive coordinator in Los Angeles, but Kellen Moore is the same guy who turned Dalton Schultz into a must-start option, so I would expect his play-calling to be a positive for Everett.
Hayden Hurst at Atlanta
Hurst gets a revenge game in a dome against a defense that last year gave up the fourth-most Fantasy points per game. There's also a decent chance we are underestimating the tight end involvement in the offense this year considering Frank Reich's history and Carolina's questionable receiving corps.
