Amidst the endless cheat sheets, strategies and dollar values owners
will encounter, sometimes a successful draft comes down to knowing which
players are primed for enormous statistical seasons. As owners who had
Tom Brady, Larry Johnson or Steve Smith last season can attest,
some breakout athletes can be the difference between a competitive team
and one that has a chance to win a championship.
Here's our list of 15 potential breakout candidates for 2006:
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Drew Bledsoe, QB, Dallas
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Bledsoe's rise in draft value can be summarized in two words:
Terrell Owens. The presence of the talented wide receiver
meant greater statistical success for Jeff Garcia and
Donovan McNabb in the past, and the same should happen in the
case of Bledsoe. While the Cowboys offense will still be based on
the run, there's no reason to believe Bledsoe won't be able to
accrue close to 3,800 yards and 25-30 touchdowns with T.O. in the
pass attack.
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Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami
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Ricky Williams has been suspended for the entire season and is
now with Toronto of the Canadian Football League, so Brown will
serve as the true featured back in Miami. Head coach Nick Saban
has shown great faith in Brown and will lean on him for 300-plus
carries and 30-40 receptions out of the backfield, so expect him
to break the 1,200-yard mark and record eight to 10 total
touchdowns. He's well worth a second-round selection in all
seasonal formats.
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Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis
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The addition of head coach Scott Linehan and his high-octane
offensive schemes should make Bulger one of the league's most
attractive quarterbacks. With the support of Steven Jackson
in the backfield, a talented core of wide receivers that includes Torry
Holt, Isaac Bruce and Kevin Curtis and in a division
with little defense, Bulger should close in on 4,000 yards and
25-30 touchdowns. Injuries are a concern, but Bulger's
statistical upside is worth the risk.
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Domanick Davis, RB, Houston
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Davis' value was in question when it was believed Houston would
choose Southern Cal's Reggie Bush in the NFL Draft, but
the selection of N.C. State's Mario Williams instead made
Davis a breakout candidate. While injuries have been an issue
throughout his pro career, it's hard to look past his
statistical potential in new head coach Gary Kubiak's offense.
Kubiak knows about backfield success from his time in Denver, so
Davis has a chance to be solid.
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Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco
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Davis, a first-round selection out of Maryland, has a chance to
make some serious noise as a rookie. A physical specimen with
soft hands and a high level of athleticism, Davis should become
a prominent option in the pass attack for quarterback Alex
Smith and be difficult to tackle after the catch. He will
need some time to adapt to the pro level, but Davis has the
skills and abilities to produce 50-60 receptions and 500-plus
yards in his first pro season.
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Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina
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Delhomme has been underrated since his move from New Orleans to
Carolina, but this could be the season he establishes himself as
one of the best quarterbacks in the league. With DeShaun
Foster and DeAngelo Williams in the backfield and
Steve Smith, Keyshawn Johnson and Keary Colbert in
the pass attack, Delhomme's offensive weapons have never been
better. He could push 3,800 yards and 30 touchdowns, so consider
him in the middle rounds.
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Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis
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The presence of Linehan also improves the value of Jackson, who
will be prominent in the St. Louis offense. Ronnie Brown and
Ricky Williams combined to record 49 receptions, 1,650 yards and
11 touchdowns under Linehan in Miami last season, and the same
sort of numbers are well within reach for the versatile and
talented Jackson. He should produce career bests across the
board and is without question worth a first- or second-round
selection.
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Julius Jones, RB, Dallas
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Jones must fend off injuries (and Marion Barber) to make
the ultimate impact, but his best-case scenario is an attractive
one from a statistical perspective. The Cowboys should be able
to run the ball with more success now that Terrell Owens is in
the offense, so Jones has a chance to exceed expectations and
become the reliable and productive back he was late in his
rookie season. Owners should consider him in the third- to
fourth-round as a No. 2 back.
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Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit
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Jones failed to meet expectations last season, but we've decided
to stick with him as a potential breakout candidate. A versatile
athlete who should be prominent in the offense of new
coordinator Mike Martz, Jones had drawn praise in the offseason
from new head coach Rod Marinelli and Martz alike. He does come
with a certain level of rish due his 2005 failures, but Jones
should post 1,000-plus yards and is still worth a second- to
third-round selection.
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Byron Leftwich, QB, Jacksonville
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Injuries have been an issue for Leftwich over the past two
seasons, but there's no doubt he has the abilities to produce
solid numbers. Jacksonville will throw the football often under
offensive coordinator Carl Smith, and wide receivers like
Matt Jones, Reggie Williams and Ernest Wilford should
be motivated to find success and support Leftwich in the pass
attack. In a best-case scenario, Leftwich could record better
than 3,500 yards and 20-25 touchdowns.
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Eli Manning, QB, N.Y. Giants
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Manning was inconsistent at times last season, but Peyton's little
brother still finished with better than 3,700 yards and 25 total
touchdowns. He now has 23 pro starts under his belt and should
continue to develop into one of the league's more productive
quarterbacks, so look for him to become a more reliable starter
between the white lines. With unlimited talent and terrific
offensive weapons around him, Manning could push 30 total
touchdowns.
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Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh
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Miller developed into a solid sleeper as a rookie with 39
receptions, 459 yards and six touchdowns, and he should take the
next step to fantasy football stardom this season. The Steelers
and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger should lean on him in a
much more prominent fashion now that Antwaan Randle El is
out of the mix, so don't be shocked if Miller finishes the season
with better than 40 receptions, 500-plus yards and five to seven
touchdowns.
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Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh
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Even though he won a Super Bowl title, Roethlisberger was still
one of the league's most underrated quarterbacks from a
statistical perspective. He threw for 2,385 yards and scored 20
total touchdowns in just 12 starts, so the potential for
3,000-plus yards and 25-30 total touchdowns are well within reach.
Unless he doesn't recover well from his offseason motorcycle
accident, Roethlisberger should become a viable No. 1 quarterback
in all formats.
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Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa Bay
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Williams proved he has what it takes to produce at a high level as
a rookie, and that first season of experience as a starter will be
invaluable to his development into a productive and reliable
featured back. The Bucs made some offseason moves that indicate an
increased dependence on the run, so head coach Jon Gruden is
certain to put the pedal to the medal with the Cadillac, who has
the potential to rush for better than 1,300 yards and record
double-digit touchdowns.
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Roy Williams, WR, Detroit
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Williams has battled injuries in his first two pro seasons, but
owners should still consider him a solid breakout candidate due to
his talents and the presence of new offensive coordinator Mike
Martz. The Texas product now has an experienced quarterback in
Jon Kitna under center and will be in what has the potential
to be an explosive offense, so look for Williams to produce career
numbers across the board. He's well worth a fourth-round selection
in drafts.
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