Amidst the endless cheat sheets, strategies and dollar values owners
will encounter, sometimes a successful draft comes down to one simple
tasks: Avoiding busts. Owners who used a valuable draft choice on Daunte
Culpepper, Jamal Lewis or Joe Horn last season can attest,
busts can be hard to overcome because more often than not those athletes
were chosen to serve in prominent roles.
Here is our list of 15 potential busts for 2006:
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Mike Anderson, RB, Baltimore
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Anderson re-emerged into a valuable starter in Denver last season
with 1,014 yards and 12 touchdowns, but an offseason move to
Baltimore will mean far fewer opportunities to produce solid stat
lines. The Ravens have an established starter in their backfield
in Jamal Lewis, which will mean either a reserve role or a
move to the fullback position for Anderson. In fact, he could be
hard pressed to reach even half of his solid 2005 totals.
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Chris Brown, RB, Tennessee
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Brown has showed flashes of brilliance at times in Tennessee, but
he's been prone to injuries and now has some serious competition
for the top spot on the depth chart. Veteran Travis Henry
remains in the mix, and the addition of rookie LenDale White makes
Brown's status as the team's starter even more uncertain. Even if
he retains the role, Brown will no doubt share carries at best and
could see a decrease in his overall numbers.
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Corey Dillon, RB, New England
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Dillon, who turns 32 in October, has endured 2,419 regular-season
carries and could be headed for the downside of his career.
Injuries limited him to 10 starts last season -- which could be
part of the reason the Patriots selected Minnesota's Laurence
Maroney in the NFL Draft -- and his level of production
suffered as a result. While he should still record decent
touchdown totals, Dillon's overall numbers might continue to head
south.
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Joey Galloway, WR, Tampa Bay
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Galloway came out of nowhere to produce career highs in receptions
and yards last season, so owners will no doubt look to add him the
first five rounds of drafts. However, the 34-year-old wideout
could be hard pressed to record 1,200-plus yards and double-digit
touchdowns in consecutive seasons. The return of Michael Clayton
to 100 percent, not to mention an offense that is set to run more
often, could limit Galloway's production.
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Terry Glenn, WR, Dallas
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The addition of stud wide receiver Terrell Owens is
expected to be a positive for Glenn, but the opposite could be
true from a statistical perspective. No wideout who has started
opposite Owens -- a list that includes Jerry Rice -- has reached
the 1,000-yard mark that season. While Glenn is more talented than
most of the athletes who've started with Owens, this little
factoid is still valid and could be an indication that Glenn's
numbers are destined to fall.
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Ahman Green, RB, Green Bay
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A former All-Pro back, Green's level of statistical success has
fallen due to a combination of injuries and a decrease in the
effectiveness of the Packers' offensive line. He enters the season
as the favorite to top the depth chart, but even at 100 percent
he'll have to contend with Samkon Gado and Najeh
Davenport for carries in the offense. Unless he shows he can
still shoulder the load, Green will remain inconsistent an
unreliable for owners.
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Rex Grossman, QB, Chicago
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Expectations will be high for Grossman, who showed some potential
after he returned from an injured ankle last season. But in an
offense that's based on the run, a noted proneness to injuries and
the curse of Florida quarterbacks over his head, Grossman seems
destined to disappoint. Furthermore, the addition of veteran Brian
Griese -- who could become the starter under the right
cirumstances -- makes Grossman one to avoid in all drafts.
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Eric Johnson, TE, San Francisco
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With the selection of Maryland's Vernon Davis in the NFL
Draft, Johnson went from a potential sleeper and into a bust
candidate. A former collegiate wide receiver who has had problems
with injuries at the pro level, Johnson will now see fewer chances
to produce in the offense with Davis in the mix. Even if San
Francisco decides to run more two tight end sets, it will be
Davis, not Johnson, whose statistics would benefit the most.
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Curtis Martin, RB, N.Y. Jets
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The end of what was a spectacular career might have started last
season when Martin failed to rush for 1,000 yards for the first
time ever. Furthermore, the veteran back was also forced to
miss regular-season starts for the first time since 1998 and will
look to return from a surgical procedure on his knee at the
extended age of 33. Unless he finds the fountain of youth soon, it
appears Martin's level of production will continue to fall.
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Deuce McAllister, RB, New Orleans
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McAllister's value went south quicker than Enron stock the second
New Orleans landed USC's Reggie Bush in the NFL Draft.
While he is still the favorite to open the season atop the depth
chart -- unless his injured knee isn't 100 percent -- McAllister
is certain to see far fewer carries with Bush in the mix. There's
little reason to believe he can find his past success in this
current situation, so owners should expect McAllister's numbers to
fall.
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Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo
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McGahee's numbers and level of consistent production were a
serious disappointment last season, and questions at the
quarterback position in Buffalo could mean countless stacked
fronts and another frustration-filled campaign. He should still
rush for 1,000-plus yards and four to six touchdowns, but McGahee
could have some bad statistical weeks as well and become a
less-reliable starter against the league's more formidable run
defenses.
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Santana Moss, WR, Washington
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Moss has a definite chance to produce another 1,000-yard season,
but the additions of Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El
could mean fewer opportunties for him to produce at a high level
and a decrease in his level of consistent stat lines. With two
more viable offensive threats now in the mix, the football will be
spread out much more in the pass attack and in turn cause Moss to
lose some chances he otherwise would have received.
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Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego
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Rivers inherited the top spot on the depth chart in San Diego
after the Chargers decided to allow former starter Drew Brees
(Saints) to leave as a free agent, but owners shouldn't be so fast
to consider him a viable starter. While his long-term outlook is
bright, Rivers has never started a regular-season game and will
endure his share of struggles in his first season behind center as
he learns and adjusts to a faster and more athletic pro
environment.
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Fred Taylor, RB, Jacksonville
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The old "Fragile Fred" made a return last season as the veteran
was forced to miss five starts due to injuries. Now 30, Taylor's
window for statistical success could close sooner than later in
Jacksonville. The team added UCLA's Maurice Drew as a
potential heir apparant, and there's no question that Greg Jones
will see his share of carries in goal-line situations. Taylor is
still a viable starter in some formats, but his best seasons are
well in the past.
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Javon Walker, WR, Denver
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Walker possesses immense long-term potential, but he could find it
difficult to recapture his 2004 form in the first season after a
reconstructive procedure on his right knee. The aforementioned
Galloway and Marcus Robinson both had similar procedures
and struggled in their first seasons back, and the same situation
could hinder Walker. A 1,000-yard season is within reach, but
Walker could be inconsistent and cause owners countless headaches.
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