Fantasy Football draft prep Q&A: Running backs whose ADP makes least sense, plus who we're drafting most
The Fantasy Football Today crew tackles burning questions at RB

Hello everyone -- Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) here and we've turned the pages on our calendars to August so that means we're in the endgame now. Sorry, I just always wanted to say we're in the endgame now! What we're really in is the stretch run of Fantasy Football 2021 draft preparation. We want to get you caught up with everything here and so we'll be dedicating each of the following weeks to one position group with an offshoot of content specific to that position. This week will be running backs.
At the start of each week from now until the end of the Fantasy season, I'll be organizing a panel of sorts asking questions of our FFT team and they will be delivering answers. We'll hear from Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Chris Towers, Heath Cummings and Adam Aizer. If you have any burning questions you want answered, reach out to me on Twitter @DanSchneierNFL. If the questions are good, I'll work them into the weekly panel.
Without further ado, let's dive into this week's questions:
1. Which RB has an ADP that makes the least sense to you?
Adam: Javonte Williams has climbed into Round 5, and it's too soon for that kind of rise. It's going to take some time for him to run away with the job - if that happens at all - so you may not have a very productive player for the first few weeks or perhaps the first two months of the season.
Dave: Javonte Williams at 55.1. Look, I love the talent and I know he will eventually be the Broncos' best running back. But I don't understand why people would reach for him in Round 5 when he hasn't locked up the primary job and his competition for touches seems entrenched as the featured back to begin the year. Meanwhile his college teammate has started to get a grip on the majority of his team's touches and is getting picked 15 spots later.
Jamey: I'm using the CBS Sports ADP, and Ezekiel Elliott is the No. 10 running back off the board. That will change -- I have him as the No. 5 overall player -- but it was shocking to see Elliott that low.
Chris: Like poor Calvin when he suddenly started seeing everything from every viewpoint at the same time, I can generally see why every player is being drafted where they are, especially as the Fantasy football marketplace continues to get more efficient. But I'm having a lot of trouble understanding J.K. Dobbins as a borderline second-round pick. He's got a high floor in that offense, but you shouldn't be drafting players in the second round for their floor. He'll be splitting work and likely won't have much receiving work, which means his path to one of those legitimate high-end, difference-making RB1 seasons is incredibly narrow. I can't justify taking him over the likes of David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, or Chris Carson.
Heath: I know he had a great postseason, but Leonard Fournette should not be going four rounds earlier than Ronald Jones, and neither of them should be drafted in the first six rounds with Giovani Bernard lined up for the bulk of the passing downs work. The winner of the battle between Fournette and Jones will have flex appeal, but I'm not sure either has top-15 upside as long as all three backs are healthy.
2. Which RB (outside the first two rounds*) has an ADP that makes the most sense to you?
Adam: David Montgomery in mid-to-late Round 3 makes sense. We've basically seen just six games of brilliance in his career, so we can't treat him like a sure thing especially with Tarik Cohen (hopefully) getting healthy. Montgomery deserves to go before some players with workload concerns like Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders, but he shouldn't be drafted ahead of players like CEH and D'Andre Swift.
Dave: Chris Carson has an ADP just before 40th overall. I can dig that. He's been going in late Round 3 in our mocks as one of the "last best" starting running backs a manager could draft. Despite amassing 15-plus carries in only four games in 2020, he's still a good fit in Seattle's offense, even as they change their scheme. Some, but not all, of his downside is baked into this ADP.
Jamey: David Montgomery is going at No. 37 overall based on the CBS Sports ADP, and that's right. He's a quality No. 2 running back, and early Round 4 is the right spot for him.
Chris: Josh Jacobs. Of the high-volume rushers with a questionable (or largely nonexistent) receiving workload, Jacobs is the most reasonably priced. You're paying for an RB2 floor, and that's what he brings to the table. But, because he's the No. 20 RB in ADP right now, you're also actually able to price in some room for profit on the high end of outcomes. Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and Dobbins have to come pretty close to their ceilings to justify their cost; Jacobs' ceiling isn't much lower than Chubb's, let alone Dobbins'.
Heath: Chase Edmonds fits perfectly into the high-end RB3 category. There is some hope that Edmonds takes over a bigger role, including the passing game, but James Conner provides just enough concern to keep Edmonds out of the top-24. That being said, Edmonds is one of my favorite Zero-RB targets in Round 6 or later.
3. Which RB have you been drafting the most of so far?
Adam: I love drafting Chris Carson in late Round 3. He has finished as a high-end RB2 on a per game basis in three straight seasons and I have no reason to believe he won't do that again in 2021.
Dave: I keep coming back to James Robinson as a viable Fantasy starter. I just can't see Jacksonville letting him flounder on the bench when he was effective in a rotten offense as a rookie. Travis Etienne will be a factor, but he might wind up taking opportunities away from everyone in the offense, not just Robinson. As a physical inside runner with modest touchdown upside, Robinson still carries worthwhile Fantasy value. I'm happy to get him in Round 7, which is just after his current NFC ADP.
Jamey: David Montgomery is going at No. 37 overall based on the CBS Sports ADP, and that's right. He's a quality No. 2 running back, and early Round 4 is the right spot for him.
Chris: Raheem Mostert. He might have as much upside as Dobbins and might have as many carries, but he's going off the board four rounds later. Mostert isn't even the first running back being drafted on his own team. Mostert has played at least 40% of the offensive snaps in 16 games in his career and is averaging 15.0 PPR points per game. He'll be a solid starter as long as he's healthy.
Heath: In our drafts Josh Jacobs is almost always there at the end of Round 4 or early in Round 5. In that range I think you're pretty much drafting his floor at that point. Jacobs has always shared somewhat, and I don't think there's much risk of Kenyan Drake taking his job. Looking at CBS ADP, Jacobs is a Round 3 pick, if I was in those drafts I wouldn't have near as much of the Raiders running back.
4. Which RB have you been drafting the least of so far?
Adam: I have been avoiding Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis. This is really a CBS vs. ADP thing, though, because in our CBS leagues they tend to be taken in Round 4 or early Round 5. Their average draft positions are in late round 5. I could stomach them as my Round 5 pick, but nothing sooner.
Dave: Josh Jacobs. The O-line scares me. The schedule, especially early on, scares me. Kenyan Drake doesn't scare me but the idea of the coaching staff taking measures to limit how much work Jacobs gets really worries me. I almost wonder if his coaches still love him as much as when they drafted him. I know I don't love him as much as when he was drafted, and I can't say I'm confident in him turning a third-straight season with over 1,300 total yards.
Jamey: Josh Jacobs is someone I have a hard time drafting this year. The addition of Kenyan Drake could be a huge problem for Jacobs, and this Raiders team could make it hard for Jacobs to find the end zone on a consistent basis. When the Raiders are trailing, Jacobs struggles, and it could be a long year for him if Drake is healthy.
Chris: At their going prices, I'll probably have very little exposure to Henry, Chubb, and Dobbins. At that point in the draft, I'm looking for 25-point per game upside if I can find it, and I can't find it with those guys. Consider this: Derrick Henry needed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in a season over the last decade plus the fifth-most rushing yards ever to average 20.9 PPR points per game in 2020. That's just about the best season a player who doesn't catch passes can possibly have and it was the 32nd-best PPR season of the last decade. It's not that it can't happen, but it's chasing pretty long odds.
Heath: I am scared to death of Saquon Barkley in the first round. Partially because of his recovery from last year's ACL injury, but that's not all. I'm afraid the Giants offensive line limits his rushing upside, I'm afraid Daniel Jones, Jason Garrett, and Kenny Golladay will limit his target upside, and I'm afraid the Giants offense as a whole will limit his touchdown upside. I won't be drafting Barkley in Round 1.
5. Which RB do you have the biggest workload concerns about?
Adam: I'll go with Chase Edmonds here. If you told me he was getting 15 touches per game and at least three of those touches were receptions, I'd be very bullish on Edmonds in Round 5. But I have no idea what James Conner's role will be, I have no idea who gets the goal-line work (other than Kyler Murray) and I don't know what to expect with receptions now that Rondale Moore could take some of those short-area catches we saw from Edmonds in 2020.
Dave: We're coming off a year where D'Andre Swift averaged nearly 14 PPR points per game, which is pretty good. But the Lions don't view him as a feature back seeing as how they keep talking up Jamaal Williams in the same breath as Swift. This appears to be headed toward a tandem backfield in an offense that, at least on paper, figures to be behind often. Swift should have an advantage on hurry-up offensive snaps and is still a candidate for 60-plus receptions, but will he get enough carries on top of that to be confidently drafted as a top-15 running back?
Jamey: I'm curious to see what the Eagles do with Miles Sanders. I love him as a talent, but Philadelphia brought in a lot of guys -- Kenneth Gainwell, Jordan Howard and Kerryon Johnson -- along with Boston Scott still being on the roster. Sanders should be the lead guy, but it could be messy in 2021.
Chris: Saquon Barkley, at least early on. All this hemming and hawing about his Week 1 status seems like a lot of noise right now, but it seems clear to me that Barkley isn't where he wanted to be by this point in the preseason. He's an incredible talent, but the Giants are a pretty mediocre offense, and his usage in the passing game has not been great when he has played next to Daniel Jones. What if he's just stuck in a bad offense with a middling receiving role? And what if he isn't up to full strength until October on top of that?
Heath: He's going later, but I'm not sure how much upside Michael Carter has. He was a part-time back in college and I don't expect that to change in Year 1 with the Jets. But unlike other timeshare running backs, Carter is also likely to be on a bad offense with a rookie quarterback. If he's sharing 50-50, Carter has a really narrow path to Fantasy relevance.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.
















