Fantasy Football Preseason Week 2 RB game film notes: Brian Robinson is a breakout candidate

Dave Richard breaks down the game film to unpack key nuggets at the RB position

Antonio Gibson's been a good Fantasy running back for two straight years. He's not going to be as good of one for a third.

The Commanders' starting offense against the Chiefs in Week 2 of the preseason included rookie third-round pick, Brian Robinson. He was their guy until the fifth play when Gibson replaced him after back-to-back carries. More of the same was seen on Washington's second and third drives: Robinson started, and Gibson replaced him after some work. 

If it was done as a motivational ploy to get Gibson to play better, it didn't work. If it was done because the Commanders coaches wanted to see if Robinson is legitimately a better runner than Gibson, then it did work. Robinson, who played 11 of 19 snaps with Carson Wentz, did a great job following his blockers and not dancing in the backfield or running parallel to the line of scrimmage. Thanks to his vision, Robinson was also to create gains when his blocking failed him. He was also exceptionally physical -- he carried defenders and fell forward for extra yardage and kept up his streak of converting short-yardage downs (he's 4 for 4 from three yards or fewer to go).  Gibson, meanwhile, has struggled with post-contact yardage for years and has ball-security concerns after fumbling last week and six times last season. Robinson didn't lose a fumble in his time at Alabama (545 carries).

After the second preseason game, Coach Ron Rivera talked up Gibson's skill-set as a kick-returner and pass-catcher, noting his history as a receiver and saying, "we've got to get the ball in his hands in space." Rivera wasn't asked about Robinson because there's nothing that needed to be said -- he's their most reliable running downs option at this point. If someone's going to get 15 touches in this offense, it's Robinson.

It gets worse for Gibson. Robinson is in line to be the running-downs guy, and for now, I think it's J.D. McKissic (who didn't play against the Chiefs because of a groin injury) as the main passing-downs guy. Gibson may be the backup for both and spell them at times each week. In this scenario, Gibson's barely worth drafting.

I know it feels weird to pass on Gibson, but at this point, I'd be stunned if he were the Commanders' lead back to start 2022. Robinson's better, which is why I'd take him first in Round 8. Honestly, the only reason why Gibson is a Round 9 choice is that I think there's a chance he gets traded and could regain some value. As things stand now in D.C., Round 9 might be too soon for Gibson. McKissic is a low-ceiling PPR bench running back you could pick up in Round 11 in PPR.

Patriot games

Every year, we Fantasy managers become consumed with the Patriots running backs. Why? Why do we do this to ourselves?! As if Bill Belichick is going to waltz into a press conference and definitively tell us who the best running back will be every week. This is the same man who just this summer told a youth reporter "Fantasy Football doesn't mean anything to me."

Despite this, Fantasy managers are fawning over Rhamondre Stevenson and ignoring Damien Harris. But we all might be missing the best value from this group in PPR: Ty Montgomery. All three played against the Panthers, but it was Montgomery who saw the most snaps (10), touches (five), and end-zone visits (one).

Montgomery is ticketed for the James White role -- obvious passing downs and the 2:00 offense. That's been a fairly good spot for Fantasy in the past; White himself had a top-10 season once and had 29 PPR points in his first two games in 2021. Montgomery has acquitted himself well through training camp and, against Carolina, showed effortless hands, varied routes, hard runs and really good pass protection. He's going to matter.

This means Harris and Stevenson figure to split the remaining rushing work, with Stevenson potentially climbing into some passing situations since he's reportedly had a good camp too in terms of receiving and blocking. Stevenson did run hard against the Panthers but didn't flash the speed to win on an edge-run attempt. Harris had good burst and kept his feet moving but was really bad on one pass pro rep.

I'd ignore all Patriots running backs until at least Round 8. Harris is still the first guy off the board for me -- he was better in short-yardage/goal-line last year and trusted more by the Patriots. Until there's evidence of that changing, he's the one I'd prefer, but it's close. Stevenson will go within 10 picks of Harris (if not ahead of Harris, that's how much hype is out there for him), but do not forget about Montgomery as a Round 12-13 pick in PPR.

The skinny on ...

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire & Isiah Pacheco: There wasn't much you could tell from Edwards-Helaire against the Commanders, he played eight snaps, ran four routes and took two carries practically nowhere. Pacheco wasn't much better statistically but he's quicker than Edwards-Helaire. You can see it in his runs and even in the fake handoffs from Patrick Mahomes. I think Pacheco has taken Ronald Jones' role for sure, but I am not convinced he's made enough in-roads to take a big chunk of Edwards-Helaire's job to start the season. He's still late-round material. 
• Dameon Pierce: He didn't play. Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead, and others, did play. Mack is serviceable, Burkhead is good depth, but neither offer the power nor burst Pierce does. Do the Texans already know this and decided to keep Pierce sidelined for that reason? Or is there more to his absence? Hopefully, it's the former -- Fantasy managers are lining up to take Pierce in Round 7 as a potential lead back at a great value.
  
• Kenny Gainwell: It was a little surprising to see Gainwell play after two days of joint practices with the Browns and Miles Sanders nursing a hamstring injury, but perhaps the coaches felt like he needed some work. He looked good -- plenty of speed and shiftiness to his game -- but it wasn't a good thing that he didn't start. Boston Scott did, and he had 24 total yards on his first two touches. At least Gainwell looked good and cashed in on a short-yardage touchdown after plowing directly into a linebacker. Scott is a decent late-round flier in deep leagues. 
• Trey Sermon & Tyrion Davis-Price: Neither one played particularly outstanding, but I'd say for the second straight week Sermon did better than the rookie. Davis-Price had a short-yardage run go backward, which isn't good since it's supposed to be his specialty. We don't know what's up with Jeff Wilson's status either. The runners behind Elijah Mitchell in San Francisco are a mystery.
• Chuba Hubbard & D'Onta Foreman: Based solely on what I see in the preseason, I think Hubbard is the better backup running back in Carolina. When Foreman played he looked like a gets-what's-blocked runner with obvious power but not pushing piles like he should. Hubbard has a better all-around game. I would not feel good committing to either one as a handcuff to Christian McCaffrey.