Fantasy Football Week 15: Starts, Sits, Sleepers and Busts for every game on the slate
Fantasy lineup calls -- as chosen by you -- for Week 15
By
Dave Richard
•
1 min read
A new spate of injuries brings a new slate of start/sit debates, and we're here to answer them all for every matchup on the slate. There are glaring Week 15 examples of players you should start and sit. There are also examples of sleepers who could provide unexpected production and big names who could flop based on these Week 15 matchups. Every week we'll break down every game on the slate and pinpoint the players you need to know in every matchup.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The Chiefs pass defense has played significantly better over their past eight games, holding wideouts to five touchdowns and two 100-plus-yard performances. That's scary, but Williams has played better lately in part because of how he's being deployed. In his past five, his average target depth is down to 8.0 and his catch rate is 73%. That's way better than where he was through the first nine games of the year (11.95 average target depth, 56% catch rate). He's collected at least six targets in each of his last five games, delivering 12 PPR points in three of five. Williams also has throttled the Chiefs for at least six catches, at least 100 yards and a touchdown in each of his past two against them. The entire Chargers offense is better off if the Chiefs don't have behemoth Chris Jones terrorizing their O-line. He's a trustworthy No. 2 receiver, especially in full PPR.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sneaky Sleeper
Projections powered by
Sportsline
With so many pass-catchers sidelined for the Browns, Peoples-Jones figures to have a shot at leading Cleveland in all of their receiving categories against Las Vegas. The only major hang-up is that Peoples-Jones is inconsistent. He's got height and especially long arms, but he doesn't always use them effectively. He turns pretty much every target down the sideline into a contested catch because he lacks burst, but the Browns haven't been shy about utilizing him anyway. Now they have little choice. There's more to it, like his 47.1% catch rate and two drops over his past four games (17 targets), but as long as Jarvis Landry is out and the Browns' tight end corps isn't able to play, Peoples-Jones has a shot to help Fantasy managers as a No. 3 receiver or low-rent flex. Predictably, it's been high-volume receivers who have done the best against Las Vegas. For one week, Peoples-Jones qualifies, even with Case Keenum under center (Keenum might be an upgrade over Baker Mayfield at this point).
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
No doubt, Henry is a touchdown-or-bust Fantasy tight end. He's been under 45 receiving yards in all but one game all year. But luckily for Henry, he has 11 end-zone targets on the year (this doesn't include other targets like those that are caught short of the goal line). He'll also face a Colts defense that's given up six scores to tight ends in 2021 and has allowed at least 10 half-PPR points to a tight end in five of its past six games (and seven of 10). This seems like the proper matchup for the Patriots to prey on Indy's suspect linebackers and safeties in coverage with an added dose of Henry. He's among the best low-end starting tight ends you could consider.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Sit Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The one Patriots player who I wouldn't trust is Meyers, who as a receiver who lines up primarily in the slot should see a lot of Kenny Moore in coverage. Moore has been outstanding for years and 2021 is no exception. Moore and the Colts have held slots to 10.3 yards per grab all year (seventh-best) and 3.45 yards after catch per reception all year (fourth-best) with only four completions of 20-plus yards allowed all year. Drilling down into their last five games, the Colts have held slot guys to a 56.5% catch rate, way down from the 72.1% rate they've allowed over the balance of the season (and their recent defensive numbers against slot receivers are just as good in that timespan as they've been for the whole season). If the Patriots manage to run the ball well, Meyers might see a serious target shortage, just as he has in three of his four games before the Buffalo wind storm matchup.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The division of labor between Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah turned out to be worse than expected last week. Abdullah took early-down snaps as soon as the first series for the Panthers and really pushed Hubbard off the field in the second half (only eight snaps for Hubbard then). Might the matchup be Hubbard's only savior? While favorable -- the Bills gave up over 100 rush yards and a touchdown in each of their past two games (Damien Harris, Leonard Fournette) -- the reality is that Hubbard's playing time is far from assured to begin with and will almost certainly evaporate if the Panthers can't keep the score close. Hubbard's touchdown saved him last week, and it's pretty much the only way he can be useful for Fantasy considering he has just two games with 80-plus total yards.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Sneaky Sleeper
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Davis has been chasing Emmanuel Sanders' role for weeks, but a knee injury to the ineffective veteran put Davis on the field for a season-high 83% of snaps in Week 14. In turn he busted out with a season-high 15.7% target share and a 2021-best five receptions. He underwhelmed in terms of receiving yards but did score for the second time in as many weeks on a red-zone slant pattern. The Panthers allow the highest catch rate (73.2%) to outside receivers this season and play the fifth-most man coverage on average. All four of Davis' touchdowns and five of his six end-zone targets have come against man coverage.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Flex Starter
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Already an every-down player for the Cardinals, Green should see a bump in targets with DeAndre Hopkins sidelined. On the season he has a 64% catch rate, a 12.3 average target depth, 2.98 yards after catch per reception and eight end-zone targets (second-highest behind Hopkins). In fact, Green has exactly as many receiving yards from Kyler Murray as Hopkins, but on nine fewer targets with five fewer catches. The tremendous opportunity for Green to work as Arizona's No. 1 receiver begins against a fragile Lions secondary that recently has either given up huge yardage to wide receivers (227 to Minnesota, 190 to Chicago, 161 to Pittsburgh) or gets steamrolled by run-heavy offenses (Denver's receivers totaled 77 yards, Cleveland's had 89). Arizona is the league's eighth-most run-heavy offense, so don't get too carried away with Green this week, but he's definitely flex worthy, especially if James Conner is limited or does not play.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Bust Candidate
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Instead of telling you how good Kirk has looked or how his role will evolve with Hopkins sidelined, I want to drop this stat: Kirk had delivered 15-plus PPR points in five of six games the Cardinals have won by 12 or more points and had been held to 12 or fewer in their other seven games. Arizona is a 13.5-point favorite over Detroit, so the expectation is that another blowout is on the horizon. By that logic, Kirk is a must-start. But Detroit's been incredibly good against slot guys, holding them to 10.8 yards per grab (10th best) and 3.3 yards after catch per reception (best in the league) with just two touchdowns allowed. That worries me and pushes Kirk into low-end flex range, especially since he has just four games with Murray this year with five-plus grabs and must further contend with Zach Ertz for targets inside the numbers.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Jaguars coach Urban Meyer admitted the team needed to be more balanced offensively after calling pass plays 86% of the time last week, but he also demanded efficiency and more power from his O-line. Even with Meyer now gone, the perfect opponent for that is Houston, who has allowed 1.6 yards before contact per running back rush, seventh-worst in the league in 2021 and a sign that its D-line can be moved. Better yet, the Texans are dead last in yards after contact per running back carry (3.32) and second-to-last with 79 missed tackles on rushes. So if the Jaguars can fix their run game just a little, the results for Robinson should be astonishing. The catch is whether or not the Jags actually give Robinson the workload that we saw earlier this year. With Houston's offense unlikely to pull away, it seems fair to take the leap of faith with Robinson once more. It helps that Carlos Hyde may not play.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I can't resist Gesicki this week, especially after he got ticketed with a season-high 27% target share in Week 12 when DeVante Parker was back on the field with him. Statistically, the Jets have allowed the sixth-most Fantasy points to rival tight ends, but the next-level metrics say they're much, much worse. Since their Week 6 bye, the Jets are league-worst in yards per catch allowed (13.5) and yards after catch allowed (9.1 per reception) along with fifth-worst in catch rate allowed (74.5%) just to tight ends. The catch is they've seen just 5.9 targets per game to the position, but if the Dolphins can't run the ball and stick with Gesicki like they did in their last game, he might double that number and run roughshod all over the Jets. He's a fantastic DFS option and well worth using as a top-10 tight end in any format.
| ||||||||||||||||||
mmm
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Bust Candidate
Projections powered by
Sportsline
It's one thing for Elliott to lose playing time to Tony Pollard. It's another for Elliott to lose playing time to Corey Clement! The two were almost even in the third quarter (10 snaps for Elliott, seven for Clement) and were tied with nine each in the fourth quarter. And it's not like either one was particularly special but Clement hit holes a tad quicker and broke a couple more tackles. The fact that the coaching staff veered toward a near-even split in the second half of last week's game shouldn't be lost on anyone, nor should the concerns about the Cowboys offensive line (now expected to play without gargantuan Tyron Smith) not paving lanes for any runner on inside runs be lost on anyone. The Giants run defense isn't dangerous in the least and since linebacker Blake Martinez's Week 3 injury has allowed 1.9 yards before contact to running backs (fourth-most in the timespan). That's a point in Elliott's favor, but it really doesn't change him from being a touchdown-dependent Fantasy running back whose playing time seems to be limited by his coaches. Elliott qualifies as a low-end No. 2 running back, nothing more.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Have confidence in Goedert in his first game post-bye, no matter who the Eagles quarterback is. Washington has seen tight ends with four or fewer targets in seven of their 13 games, which is some semblance of proof that they haven't faced many good tight ends. In the other six where a tight end has seen the low, low bar of five-plus targets, the Team's allowed 10-plus PPR points five times. Goedert has at least five targets in 5 of 7 games since the Ertz trade, including in Week 13 when Gardner Minshew found him for six targets (and a 6-105-2 explosion).
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The Titans defense might be resourceful and tough to get a beat on, but they have yet to hold back-to-back quarterbacks to under 20 Fantasy points this year. That'll be put to the test against Roethlisberger, who himself has achieved 20-plus Fantasy points in four of his past five. Pittsburgh has nudged its pass-run ratio in Roethlisberger's favor over the last five games, leading to more numbers for him. The inclusion of Pat Freiermuth in the offense has helped a bunch, too. But the overall hunch is that the Steelers are willing to ride or die with Roethlisberger, whose arm looked washed in the first half of last week before rallying in a major way in the second half against a Vikings defense devoid of a pass rush. Tennessee has put less pressure on quarterbacks than Minnesota on the year and allows the third-most time for quarterbacks to throw. It's a terrific recipe for Roethlisberger to have another strong stat line.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
You were wrong if you thought the Broncos were going to dial back Gordon's touches after missing a game. He played the exact same amount of snaps as Javonte Williams against the Lions, but he dominated those valuable plays inside of 10 yards (in on 6 of 9 snaps). We've seen those snaps vary from back to back and game to game, but the point is that Gordon isn't going away. And I'm not sure the Broncos want him to go away because their run game has proven to be successful. I'm not sure how good the Bengals run defense is just because they held down the 49ers backup running backs last week. I'm also not sure the Bengals will beat the Broncos by more than one score; Gordon tends to play better or at least find the end zone in Broncos wins and close losses. He and Williams also tend to see more carries in their wins. I expect a fairly close game, which helps Gordon's case. The veteran is a little touchdown-needy, but he has at least delivered a minimum of eight non-PPR points in six straight and 10-plus PPR in six of his last seven.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Pitts still has seen one red-zone target since the Falcons' Week 6 bye, but dare I say he started to look a little sharper and quicker last week? He had his timing down with Matt Ryan on several throws and flashed plenty of speed on a short catch-and-run. He even got open in the actual end zone after two Panthers defenders collided with each other, but Ryan was blitzed and had to spike the ball. Point is, Pitts is improving, even if it's not being shown in the stat line. That's the good news. The bad news is that the 49ers allow the sixth-fewest Fantasy points to tight ends on the year. But hold on, there's some more good news: they've been the least targeted (5.1 per game), so perhaps their success against the position is tied to their lack of targets. It helps that the Niners aren't one of the pressure-dominant defenses in the league even though they have 33 sacks (ninth-best). I'm mildly encouraged that Pitts can match the 11 PPR points he had last week, which makes him good enough to start.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sneaky Sleeper
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Lazard had played in the slot in a number of games this year, but in his first one with Randall Cobb out, Lazard saw season-highs in targets, catches and yards. It helped that he took on a bad Bears pass defense, but what the Ravens are serving up in the wake of more injuries isn't exactly good. Green Bay might fancy itself as a running team, but Baltimore's best defensive attribute is in the trenches. Their worst? That would be the secondary, one that allowed Baker Mayfield to connect with one receiver for 90 yards and another for a touchdown (and yet another touchdown to a tight end). I suspect Aaron Rodgers will have his way with the Ravens secondary, and that should open up Lazard for another solid game.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Wilson's recent track record against the Rams has been pretty ugly, but this may not be the Rams' typical defense. Not only has Los Angeles allowed 383 yards to Kyler Murray on Monday and 307 yards to Aaron Rodgers in Week 12, but they're playing short-handed on a short week against a Seahawks passing offense that's begun to click. Wilson's thrown mostly well over the last two weeks, connecting flawlessly to Tyler Lockett and getting close to on the same page with D.K. Metcalf. Wilson had 24 Fantasy points in Week 14 but should have had 30 if he was on-target to Metcalf on a couple of red-zone throws, and he absolutely should have been north of 30 points two games ago if not for Gerald Everett's mistakes. Putting it all together against the Rams and their pressuring defense won't be easy but Wilson definitely has the upside to nail down his third straight with at least 20 points.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Bust Candidate
Projections powered by
Sportsline
In each of Hill's two starts he's needed a lucky break in the final two minutes to push his Fantasy point total over 20. If we have to count on Hill making last-second fluky plays, then it's a matter of time before he runs into a tough defense and finishes with an ugly number. Such a scenario might play out this week against a Bucs defense that's remained tough against the run until last week when Josh Allen took advantage of a defense bent on defending the pass. I would expect Tampa Bay to be much more focused on containing Hill as a rusher this week -- Allen's 109 yards on the ground is probably the worst thing to happen to Hill because it'll be a point of emphasis for Tampa's defense all week. And while Hill threw better against the Jets last week, the Bucs defense is a step up in class.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Flex Starter
Projections powered by
Sportsline
While some Fantasy managers might be discouraged by Osborn's 33% catch rate against the Steelers, I would argue that the nine targets he saw is what matters. The Steelers pass defense is certainly better than what the Bears will offer the Vikings this week (the Bears have allowed five scores to receivers alone in their past three), plus Chicago's pass rush figures to struggle to attack Kirk Cousins. We should see a pretty comfortable, balanced game plan from the Vikings, one that should include another six or so targets for Osborn, complete with a couple of deep throws and potentially an end-zone target or two.
| ||||||||||||||||||
