Fantasy Football: Which running backs and tight ends have receiving upside from lining up in the slot often?

Ben Gretch finds key receiving trends from slot usage data to highlight for Fantasy football drafts.

Wide receiver alignment probably gets talked about more than it's ever really explained, and it's one of the many football-adjacent concepts that can feel like an unnecessary barrier to understanding for the average fan. I'd guess most know what a slot receiver is, but there are so many formation variations in the modern, spread-happy NFL and we talk so frequently about cornerback matchups and slot rates that all of it can be a bit difficult to follow.

But it's also important to try to understand, especially for players like Jarvis Landry or Cooper Kupp, both of whom could spend more time on the outside in 2020 as their offenses might shift to more multiple tight end sets. Interestingly, both Landry and Kupp have been fairly solid on the outside in terms of yards per route run and not much worse than their slot rates. 

We talked about players like Landry and Kupp on Wednesday's episode of Fantasy Football Today. As we prepared for the show with an email discussion, Dave Richard gave a solid overview of what to consider when you hear discussion around slot rates:

"Slot routes are traditionally shorter than outside routes and therefore come with higher catch rates. I think almost any receiver could work out of the slot whereas you need to have good speed or good size to reliably work as an outside guy. Quickness and savvy route running are typical traits of good slot receivers (think Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Jamison Crowder). 

"Most teams are cross-training receivers to line up anywhere, but teams are not cross-training defensive backs at the same rate. Some teams (Patriots) love playing man coverage. Other teams (49ers, Bills) prefer to just line up and play "sides" with their cornerbacks. The majority of teams DO have a specific nickelback, or slot cornerback. Some are good, some aren't. Most of them are inconsistent (great one week, bad the next)."

I couldn't agree with Dave more about cornerback matchups, and how guys who move inside will avoid top corners for many defenses whose outside corners won't shadow. At the same time, slot rates are likely overblown a bit — catch rates may be higher on the inside, but efficiency stats like yards per catch are higher on the outside due to more downfield passes, so we're largely just talking about different profiles. And there really aren't that many shutdown corners in the league, plus cornerback play can be fairly inconsistent in general from year to year. 

But there are a few wide receivers who are particularly sensitive to cornerback matchups, and Adam Aizer had some great names on the show who have to face some of the very best corners in the league in 2020. We also talked about Minnesota and Carolina and how their slot usage might shake out with new personnel. Listen below and be sure to subscribe for non-stop Fantasy football content. 

One thing we briefly touched on that I want to expand on is TE and RB slot usage, as those are two positions where slot alignment data is very useful. Both positions can feature dual roles with pass blocking and understanding which players have the opportunity to get out in more routes can go a long way to understanding where the pass-catching upside is for Fantasy. 

Let's jump into some useful RB and TE slot notes. All data is for players who ran at least 100 routes and courtesy of Pro Football Focus.  

No running back lined up in the slot more than Tarik Cohen in 2019, and his 105 slot snaps were 42 more than any other back. Part of that was because he played a full 40 snaps in the slot in Week 1, a role that immediately dissipated in Week 2. But Cohen was still near or above 10 slot snaps per week fairly often in the second half of the season, and that helped him rack up plenty of receiving volume. His efficiency was very poor in 2019 relative to his strong 2018, and that could cost him some work, but that efficiency lull has also made him wildly affordable as a potential PPR spot starter for teams that go away from the RB position early in drafts. 

Edmonds ran a higher percentage of his overall routes out of the slot than any other running back at 32.7%, a notable point when considering that David Johnson was third on the list. Four backs ran at least 25% of their routes out of the slot — Cohen, Kareem Hunt and these two Cardinals — and no other back was over 16%. That seems like an intentional point of emphasis for Arizona, though Kenyan Drake didn't play much slot after coming over in a midseason trade. 

Drake has an impressive receiving track record dating back to Alabama, so his slot usage could spike after spending an offseason with the team. The Cardinals could see their play volume rise in Year 2 after playing at the fourth-highest situation-neutral pace last year but finishing just 22nd in total plays and 18th in pass attempts. If it's not Drake seeing that passing-game volume, it might be what makes Edmonds (or maybe even seventh-round pick Eno Benjamin) a value late in drafts. It's hard to say who might benefit, but this is one more data point to consider for a backfield where three different players had impressive production at various points of the season last year. The Cardinals backs make good draft targets. 

Matt Ryan recently called Hayden Hurst one of the "fastest and most athletic tight ends I've ever played with." Hurst was acquired via trade with the Ravens after Austin Hooper left in free agency, and he'll have an opportunity to step into a significant target void behind Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley for one of the pass-friendliest teams in the NFL. 

In 2019, Hooper ran 45.2% of his routes from the slot, and his 216 slot routes were fifth-most among all tight ends despite missing three games. Hurst, meanwhile, ran 49.8% of his routes from the slot with Baltimore. 

There's more — Mohamed Sanu was the Falcons' primary slot receiver for the first half of 2019, and while Hooper missed some time after his trade, it did appear Hooper was seeing a slight bump in slot work late in the year. In both Weeks 15 and 17, Hooper ran 27 routes from the slot, his two highest single-game figures of the year. In Dirk Koetter's offense, Julio Jones moved into the slot just 22.2% of the time, and Calvin Ridley a minuscule 11.7% of the time. Russell Gage is a popular late-round option as the likely slot receiver in Sanu's old role, but Hurst should also reap the benefits of the available slot snaps. 

This ties into the Hurst notes, but is worth its own blurb. Hurst's role in Baltimore arguably limited Mark Andrews' overall usage; Baltimore used a lot of multiple tight end formations and various looks, but Andrews rarely played big snap shares. Andrews ran 64.1% of his routes from the slot — fourth most among all tight ends — but because of those rotational tendencies his 189 slot routes were tied for just ninth at the position, and he ran just the 25th-most routes overall at the position. 

But Hurst himself ran 207 routes, and 103 of those came out of the slot. The Ravens' third oft-used tight end, Nick Boyle, is a blocking-first player whose slot rate was just 29.9%, and Baltimore didn't replace Hurst with any high-caliber option. The Hurst trade and those available slot snaps likely mean more Mark Andrews routes in 2020.

I've been talking about Mike Gesicki all offseason, and he's starting to garner quite a bit of hype in recent weeks, so I'll be a little less optimistic here. Gesicki led all tight ends in slot rate at 71.8% and his 374 slot routes were 131 clear of any other tight end. To be clear, those are great notes, and it's further a positive that the ultra-athletic former second-round pick saw strong volume, finishing with the fourth-most air yards of any tight end in 2019. 

But Miami has a new offensive coordinator in 2020, and primary slot receiver Albert Wilson is back after an injury-plagued 2019. This type of usage is all great news for Gesicki, and he's a strong third-year breakout candidate who I love getting later in drafts, but he was way clear of the field in slot snaps and still not very productive in 2019; given his inefficiency on the volume he saw and the possibility a new coaching staff adjusts his role, these numbers could just as easily be a reason to be a bit wary.  

I've tried to figure out who will be Washington's lead tight end all offseason, and I have no idea if it will be Logan Thomas, Jeremy Sprinkle, maybe Jordan Reed signing late and trying to play despite his long-documented history with concussions, or someone else. But Washington did give Thomas $2.25 million guaranteed to come over from Detroit this offseason, which was a solid amount of money for a soon-to-be 29-year-old who has never really played much. 

What the 6-foot-6-inch Thomas has going for him is an impressive athletic profile, and he was Virginia Tech's starting quarterback for three seasons before being drafted in the fourth round in 2014 and spending a couple seasons on and off practice squads as a quarterback prospect. He switched to tight end in 2016, caught his first NFL passes in 2017, and has seen a slight uptick in usage the past two years since, moving from Buffalo over to Detroit. 

Of course, Thomas would be just a very deep stash for Dynasty or deep re-draft leagues, but the reason to be interested is while Washington's new coaching staff of coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner were in Carolina last year, Greg Olsen had the second-most raw slot routes and Ian Thomas had the second-highest slot route percentage. In fact, the Panthers' two tight ends totaled 369 slot routes, just shy of Gesicki's league-high number. Turner is the son of Norv Turner, who started the year as Carolina's offensive coordinator last year before retiring in December to give way to his son, but if Scott Turner and Rivera bring a similar offense to Washington, one of these tight ends could wind up being a sneaky Fantasy option for a team that is thirsty for pass-catchers. And Thomas might fit the bill more than anyone as the 2020 discount version of 2019 late-career breakout Darren Waller in Oakland.