Michael Fabiano gives Fantasy Football owners a look into next season with his 2006 Player Rankings, which will be updated throughout the offseason based on depth chart changes, personnel moves and injuries.

The NFL offseason has been a wild roller coaster ride with more ups and downs than the greens at Augusta National.

Most of the focus for Fantasy Footballers has been centered around the players whose value has seen a rise as a result of a team's personnel movement. The likes of Drew Bledsoe, Ron Dayne, Lee Evans, Jon Kitna, Dominic Rhodes and Chester Taylor have experienced an increase in value heading into the NFL Draft, but little has been made about the players whose value has fallen.

While it's premature to label the next 15 players as busts, each has been placed in a situation that could result in a decrease in production and draft value.

Mike Anderson, RB, Baltimore: Unless Jamal Lewis suffers a long-term injury, Anderson will have little chance to duplicate the 1,014 yards and 13 total touchdowns he recorded in Denver under head coach Mike Shanahan last season. Now relegated to a reserve halfback or fullback role in Baltimore, Anderson is no better than a flier for his skills near the goal line or late-round insurance for owners who land Lewis.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans: Aside from questions about his surgically-repaired right shoulder, Brees' move from San Diego and the offensive-minded AFC West to New Orleans and the defensive-dominated NFC South could mean a decrease in statistical success. There's no LaDainian Tomlinson in the backfield to keep defenses honest and no Antonio Gates in the pass attack, so Brees could find it difficult to produce on a consistent basis.

Kerry Collins, QB, free agent: Collins was considered a viable breakout candidate last season, but he was inconsistent and lost his job to Marques Tuiasosopo at one point. Now a free agent, Collins' status is uncertain -- rumors said he might contemplate retirement -- but his value could rise again if he lands with a team like Baltimore that will allow him a chance to compete for the top spot on the depth chart.

Domanick Davis, RB, Houston: The expected addition of USC's Reggie Bush in the NFL Draft will mean a serious decrease in Davis' opportunities to produce at a high level. The Louisiana State product is talented but has been unable to avoid injuries in his first three pro seasons, and the presence of Bush will cause him to fall from a possible starter and third- or fourth-round choice to a reserve option in the middle rounds.

Samkon Gado, RB, Green Bay: Gado was the definition of a sleeper last season, as he came out of nowhere to produce solid numbers in the absences of Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport. With both of those backs re-signed and set to compete in the backfield, however, Gado has become far less attractive in seasonal and keeper leagues. Unless either Green or Davenport is released this summer, Gado's stock will slide.

Terry Glenn, WR, Dallas: Some experts believe that the addition of Terrell Owens will improve the value of Glenn, but owners might want to consider the past before moving Glenn up on draft boards. Since 2000, the starter opposite T.O. has had no more than 805 yards (Jerry Rice) or seven touchdowns (Rice, Tai Streets, J.J. Stokes). Sure, Glenn is more talented than most of Owens' past complements, but a 1,000-yard season isn't guaranteed.

Joey Harrington, QB, Detroit: Harrington is on the market after the Lions added Jon Kitna and Josh McCown, and the teams interested in his services (Cincinnati, Dallas, Kansas City, Miami) would use him as a reserve behind an established starter. Unless he lands with a franchise that allows him a chance to start, Harrington will be worth no more than a late-round flier in all seasonal formats.

Edgerrin James, RB, Arizona: I still have James ranked fourth at his position behind Larry Johnson, Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander, but his move to Arizona has some owners worried. The Cardinals have fielded a mere three 1,000-yard backs (Adrian Murrell, Garrison Hearst, Ron Moore) since 1988, and their offensive line is questionable at best. Don't be shocked if James falls to the end of the first round in some drafts.

Deuce McAllister, RB, New Orleans: McAllister missed New Orleans' minicamp this past weekend as he continues to recover from a torn ACL in his right knee, and it's hard to envision a scenario where he has both mental and physical confidence in the knee to start the season. Furthermore, the addition of veteran Michael Bennett could mean the Saints are worried McAllister won't be able to handle the load until midseason.

Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia: I'll never question McNabb's athletic prowess and skills as a team leader, but I will question his level of statistical success without Owens in the pass attack. His list of weapons at the wide receiver position (Reggie Brown, Todd Pinkston, Greg Lewis, Jabar Gaffney) is inexperienced and unimpressive, so don't be shocked if his number of interceptions (12-15) is close to his touchdown passes (18-22).

Santana Moss, WR, Washington: It's hard to label Moss a potential bust candidate after what he accomplished last season, but it might be hard for him to duplicate such impressive numbers. David Patten and Taylor Jacobs have been replaced on the depth chart by more formidable wideouts Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El, so Moss' chances to produce monstrous totals could be diminished.

Mewelde Moore, RB, Minnesota: The addition of Chester Taylor from the free-agent market hurts the value of both Moore and Onterrio Smith, neither of whom have a real chance to open the regular season as the Vikes' featured back. Like Anderson in Baltimore, Moore and Smith are now no better than late-round fliers or insurance for those owners who land Taylor in seasonal and keeper drafts.

Chad Pennington, QB, N.Y. Jets: Pennington has endured two surgical procedures on his right shoulder over the past two seasons and the addition of Patrick Ramsey via trade from Washington makes him even less attractive in seasonal formats. Furthermore, there's a chance the Jets will look to draft Matt Leinart, Vince Young or Jay Cutler later this month in the NFL Draft, which would hurt Pennington even further.

Charles Rogers, WR, Detroit: Reports out of Detroit indicate new head coach Rod Marinelli and his staff have not been impressed with either Rogers or Mike Williams. Rogers reportedly has attitude problems while Williams is overweight, out of shape and appears to be unmotivated. Despite all of their talents, both wideouts could end up behind Scottie Vines on the depth chart to start the season.

Javon Walker, WR, Green Bay: Walker has threatened to retire if the Packers don't trade him, but the team doesn't appear set to grant his wish at this point. The situation has holdout written all over it, and that adds to a list of questions that surround Walker. The health of his knee and whether he can return to his past form is an issue, as is the status of Brett Favre, who might decide to retire.

Notebook

  • Dolphins QB Daunte Culpepper, who continues to recover from a surgical procedure to repair three damaged ligaments in his right knee, is uncertain when he will be able to return to action. The team starts its schedule Sept. 7 at Pittsburgh, which is less than one full year from the time he sustained the injuries (Oct. 30). Based on the seriousness of his ailments, I wouldn't be shocked if Culpepper were unable to return to the field until sometime in October. Even at that point, there's no guarantee he will be able to return to form that made him an MVP candidate back in 2004. Barring a miraculous acceleration in his rehabilitation over the next few months, questions about Culpepper could cause him to fall into the middle rounds in seasonal drafts.
  • Bengals QB Carson Palmer also sustained a serious knee ailment -- two months after Culpepper -- so don't be shocked if he too is unable to start the regular season on time. Also remember that Palmer's surgeon, Dr. Lonnie Paulos, described Palmer's injuries as "devastating and potentially career-ending" before he took a step back and praised the quarterback's determination in rehab. Palmer should still be considered the second-best quarterback on the board behind Colts QB Peyton Manning at this point, but he too could see a decrease in value should it be announced that his injuries will force him to miss the first month of the regular season.
  • Dolphins RB Ricky Williams was in New York City Monday for his appeal of a possible one-year suspension from the NFL. The veteran back told NFL attorney Jeff Pash that he did not use the substance for which he tested positive for back in December and that the positive result came from an herbal supplement he took as part of his practice of holistic medicine. Should the appeal be denied, Williams would be banned for the 2006 season since it would be his fourth positive test. It could take a few weeks for the results to become public, so owners who have Williams or Ronnie Brown in keeper leagues should monitor this situation.
  • The Buffalo Bills have signed WR Peerless Price to a four-year contract worth more than $10 million. That's a lot of scratch for a wideout who has averaged 38 receptions and 503 yards over the past three seasons between Atlanta and Dallas. He has to be considered the favorite to start opposite Lee Evans, though Andre Davis should be in the mix as well. While he has been an enormous bust since his last season in Buffalo (2002) and the team has three unimpressive quarterbacks in Kelly Holcomb, J.P. Losman and Craig Nall, Price will now warrant late-round consideration.

Reader Feedback

Rick Borrelli: Mike, I noticed that you didn't list Titans TE Ben Troupe on your list of sleepers. Can he become a regular Fantasy starter next season?

M.F.: Great call on Troupe, Rick. I had to cut down the list of sleepers so the column wouldn't read like War and Peace. The Titans have a ton of wide receivers and another solid tight end in Erron Kinney, but Troupe reminds me a lot of Shannon Sharpe. Here's a few more sleepers to consider in drafts: Chicago WR Mark Bradley, New England WR Reche Caldwell, Houston QB David Carr, Cleveland QB Charlie Frye, New England K Martin Gramatica, Pittsburgh RB Verron Haynes, San Diego WR Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay QB Chris Simms, Kansas City WR Craphonso Thorpe and Minnesota WR Troy Williamson.

Will: Mikey, Eric Johnson won't be much of a sleeper when San Francisco drafts Vernon Davis out of Maryland.

M.F.: No question that Johnson's value would hit the skids if the Niners decide to choose Davis. In that case, the rookie might have even more value then his veteran teammate. However, word has it that the 49ers love Texas CB Michael Huff.

Anthony: Why do you have Steve Smith ranked behind Larry Fitzgerald? Should Terrell Owens fall out of the top spot due to his past troubles?

M.F.: I happen to be a real fan of Fitzgerald, who is in an offense built to throw the football. Smith was a statistical monster last season and a postseason MVP, but Carolina's offense is based on the run. Furthermore, the addition of WR Keyshawn Johnson could mean fewer chances to produce next season. I think Owens will avoid problems and produce great numbers in Dallas, but I can understand those owners who would rank him behind the likes of Fitzgerald, Smith, Chad Johnson or Torry Holt.

Harry V.: What's the problem with Jake Plummer? You have him ranked 20th at the quarterback position, but he had a 90 percent passer rating last season.

M.F.: Plummer made fewer mistakes (until the AFC Championship) and was considered an MVP candidate at one point, but his production was as bad as his mustache. He recorded one or fewer touchdown passes in 12 of 16 starts last season, as the Broncos decided to emphasize the run with Anderson and Tatum Bell. Even if he was moved ahead of the likes of Aaron Brooks or Mark Brunell, Plummer still doesn't project into a Fantasy starter next season.

Steve Hirsch: Being the champion of the Gridiron Guru League II, do you have any special outfits or celebration dances planned for next season's draft?

M.F.: You don't want to see me attempt to dance and wouldn't catch me dead in one of Clinton Portis' outfits, but I might take a page from Chad Johnson's book and putt with a pylon or propose to a cheerleader. That cheerleader one sounds like the most fun.

Greg: Michael, who projects to be this season's Carson Palmer? Thanks and keep up the good work.

M.F.: The quarterback who could be a bit undervalued in drafts and break out is Marc Bulger. While injuries are cause for concern and could make him slide in drafts, I think Bulger has a chance to throw for 4,000 yards and 25-30 touchdowns in the offense of new head coach Scott Linehan. I also like Ben Roethlisberger, who should be available in the middle rounds.

Miller: You are like all of the other sports broadcasters when you forget about the great city of Seattle and its governor, Shaun Alexander. The man is a stud and it's a shame more people don't give him the respect he deserves.

M.F.: I have no lack of respect for Alexander -- I think he is an absolute star and would love to have him on one of my teams next season, but there are three reasons I have him ranked third overall behind Johnson and Tomlinson: 1. Alexander doesn't catch the ball out of the backfield; 2. I think it's impossible for Alexander to duplicate last season's unbelieveable numbers; 3. Seattle's offensive line won't be as solid without OG Steve Hutchinson (Vikings).

Mailbag

Neil Gonzalvo, Long Island, N.Y.: Should I retain Clinton Portis or Terrell Owens?

M.F.: Featured running backs will be the most valuable asset an owner can have on their roster, so retain Portis and let Owens free.

Matt Weisberger, Atlanta, Ga.: I will retain Shaun Alexander, but which other two players should I retain from Torry Holt, LaMont Jordan or Terrell Owens?

M.F.: Again, featured backs will be at a premium so be sure to retain Jordan. I'd retain Owens ahead of Holt, but if you're not a riverboat gambler and would rather be safe, then retain the St. Louis wideout.

Chris Burzawa: Let's assume Reggie Bush is drafted by the Houston Texans. At what point should he be selected in keeper leagues?

M.F.: Part of the answer depends on how many players each owner is required to retain, but it would be a shock if Bush wasn't selected in the first round in 99.9 percent of keeper league drafts.

Eric T. Shames, Scarsdale, N.Y.: I won my keeper league last season, but the cap I plan to impose will limit me to retaining two of these three wide receivers: Anquan Boldin, Darrell Jackson or Hines Ward. Who should be released?

M.F.: Boldin is the most attractive choice, so the decision boils down to Jackson or Ward. It's a close call without question, but I think Ward is a more durable and consistent wideout and is the one to retain.

John Barris, Seminole, Fla.: Can you please rank the top 10 defense/special teams units but factor in points allowed?

M.F.: At this point in the offseason, I'd rank the top 10 DSTs in this order: 1. Bears; 2. Panthers; 3. Colts; 4. Steelers; 5. Jaguars; 6. Broncos; 7. Seahawks; 8. Buccaneers; 9. Redskins; 10. Ravens.

You can e-mail your questions to us at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com Be sure to put Attn: In the Trenches in the subject field. Please be aware that due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

Michael Fabiano is the champion of the 2005 Gridiron Guru League II.