In the Trenches: McAllister, Culpepper fall in drafts
Expert league drafts have been rampant in recent weeks, and the results can a window into future drafts. Michael Fabiano examines the average draft positions and auction values of 12 players whose stock is in question headed into next season.
Michael Fabiano gives Fantasy Football owners a look into next season with his 2006 Player Rankings, which will be updated throughout the offseason based on depth chart changes, personnel moves and injuries.
Believe it or not, but I've been involved in 10 expert leagues drafts and we're not even into the middle of July. The results are meant to serve as a window into the future and can show owners where to expect some of the league's best athletes to land. These drafts can also be a useful guide when it comes to players who enter next season with questions, whether it's due to injuries, personnel changes or a move to a new team.
Here's a list of 12 players who fall into one of the aforementioned scenarios, their average overall draft position (based on four 12-team snake drafts) and their average auction value (based on three auctions with a $100 salary cap).
Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis (Avg. No. 45, $16): Addai's potential in what should be an explosive Indianapolis offense is immense, and that's evident in his average draft position. The rookie must compete with Dominic Rhodes (Avg. No. 66, $9) for the top spot on the depth chart, but Addai could be considered the better overall choice based on these drafts.
Tatum Bell, RB, Denver (Avg. No. 33, $14): Head coach Mike Shanahan produces 1,000-yard backs season in and season out, which makes Bell more valuable than he otherwise would be in a different situation. He was chosen no later then Round 4 and ahead of his backfield competition, Ron Dayne (Avg. No. 70, $9), in all but one of the drafts.
Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago (Avg. No. 49, $12): Rumors indicate that Benson is considered the favorite to start ahead of Thomas Jones, (Avg. No. 49, $7) and the draft results seem to follow that line of speculation. Benson was selected ahead of Jones in all but one of the drafts ad owners spent close to double on the former Texas standout in auction formats.
Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami (Avg. No. 10, $25): When it was announced that Ricky Williams would be suspended for the entire season, Brown went from a questionable choice into a first-round selection. He was chosen no later than No. 11 overall in the four drafts, so it's obvious that the experts feel he has the potential to be a No. 1 back in all leagues.
Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans (Avg. No. 24, $16): Bush is considered to be one of the most talented athletes to come out of the draft in decades, and the experts agree that he has the skills and abilities to make some serious noise as a rookie. His teammate, Deuce McAllister, was far less attractive (Avg. No. 48, $8) in all the drafts and auctions.
Daunte Culpepper, QB, Miami (Avg. No. 75, $6): Culpepper's awful numbers last season coupled with a serious knee ailment has caused his value to fall across the board. He wasn't selected until the seventh round in all but one of the drafts, and a $6 auction cost is minimal. Culpepper is on schedule to return for Week 1, but he's still a high-risk, high-reward choice.
Domanick Davis, RB, Houston (Avg. No. 14, $19): Davis' value soared when the Texans passed on Bush and took Mario Williams, and his average draft position and auction value both indicate that. Injuries are a concern, but Davis is an unquestioned featured back under the guidance of head coach Gary Kubiak, who knows about backfield success from his time in Denver.
Edgerrin James, RB, Arizona (Avg. No. 5, $26): Despite questions about the Cardinals offensive line, James still held steadfast as a first-round selection across the board. In fact, he was selected either fourth, fifth or sixth overall in each draft. Head coach Dennis Green feels James can rush for 1,600 yards in the offense, but that remains to be seen.
Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia (Avg. No. 64, $9): The loss of Terrell Owens and the fact that Philadelphia has one of the league's weakest core of wide receivers has hurt McNabb's value. He was selected no sooner than Round 5 and as late as Round 7 in one draft, so the experts feel that McNabb won't be able to return to his status as an elite quarterback.
Randy Moss, WR, Oakland (Avg. No. 29, $15): Moss was inconsistent for much of last season, but he was still selected in the third round in all four drafts. Owners hope the presence of veteran Aaron Brooks is a positive for Moss, who didn't connect with Kerry Collins and seemed to be unmotivated at times under former head coach Norv Turner.
Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas (Avg. No. 19, $20): The experts didn't seem too concerned about Owens and his past off-the-field issues, as he landed in the second round in all but one of the drafts. With a veteran in Drew Bledsoe behind center, Owens should be able to record 80 receptions, 1,200-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns in Dallas.
Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati (Avg. No. 46, $10): Palmer's value took a hit due to a severe knee ailment suffered in a postseason loss to Pittsburgh. His rehab has been flawless, however, and there's talk he could be available in the preseason. His average draft position is Round 4, but Palmer will be selected sooner if news of his rehab remains positive.
Reader Feedback
Anthony Gairo: I have both Terrell Owens and Javon Walker and can retain one. Is T.O. that much better than Walker, or does the fact that Walker is younger make him the better choice?
M.F.: Owens has been that much better than Walker -- let's not forget that Walker has had one solid season -- so the choice here is obvious. Sure, T.O. is an older wideout, but he's still a better option.
Michael Pickett: I saw that Jon Kitna wasn't in the Top 20 at the quarterback position on your positional rank list. Should he be considered a No. 2 quarterback, and is he worth a 12th-round selection?
M.F.: The answer to both of those questions is yes. In fact, I think Kitna has a chance to be a decent No. 1 quarterback in leagues with 12-plus teams. He's a definite sleeper under Mike Martz in Detroit and could be a statistical beast against weaker opponents all season.
Roy Allen Rueter: I was a little disappointed that you have Philip Rivers listed as a bust. I think Drew Brees has the greater bust potential of the two.
M.F.: To be honest, I think Rivers has what it takes to be productive in the long-term, but to come in and be successful this season with no NFL starts and little experience under his belt could be difficult. He's still worth a late-round flier, but not much else.
Joe Billig: Hey Fabs, how can Edgerrin James be ahead of Tiki Barber and Clinton Portis on your positional rank list, but behind both in the Top 100? This makes no sense!
M.F.: The positional rank list is a personal one, while the Top 100 was put together as an editorial staff. Some of my fellow writers aren't as high on James now that he's in Arizona, which is the reason he fell behind Barber and Portis in that space.
Zach Aldrich: Do you think Kurt Warner is worth a first- or second-round selection with all of the weapons he has in Arizona?
M.F.: Warner does have a chance to be a nice No. 1 quarterback across the board, but he isn't worth near a first- or second-round choice. I expect that he'll remain on the board until Round 7 in most drafts, so don't be so quick to call his name.
Mailbag
Aaron Kelly, Anaheim, Calif.: I'm in a 10-team keeper league and need to retain either Rudi Johnson for the first selection in the third round or Tom Brady for the first selection in the seventh round. Suggestions?M.F.: Brady for a seventh rounder is a steal without question, but the same goes for Johnson and featured backs will be at a far greater premium. As a result, it's advised to retain Johnson in this case.
Martin Nash, Belmont, Calif.: I have Ronnie Brown, Terrell Owens and Carnell Williams and need to decide between Donovan McNabb and Chris Chambers as my final keeper. We don't reward points for receptions, so who should I retain?
M.F.: There should be several attractive quarterbacks released back into the player pool, so I'd retain Chambers ahead of McNabb. Unless you have a poor draft position, you might even be able to re-acquire McNabb in the first or second round.
You can e-mail your questions to us at gridguru@commissioner.com Be sure to put Attn: In the Trenches in the subject field. Please be aware that due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.
Michael Fabiano is the champion of the 2005 Gridiron Guru League II Experts League.














