In the Trenches: When it comes to QBs, owners should wait
Peyton Manning aside, the quarterback position will have serious question marks next season. In fact, Michael Fabiano suggests that owners should wait to fill the position until the middle rounds of drafts.
Michael Fabiano gives Fantasy Football owners a look into next season with his 2006 Player Rankings, which will be updated throughout the offseason based on depth chart changes, personnel moves and injuries.
The quarterback position has received prominent consideration in the earlier rounds of drafts in the past, but that sort of scenario will soon be altered across the board. Injuries, personnel movement or a decrease in statistical success in the case of several well-known field generals will decrease the position's value in seasonal drafts and leaves more questions than answers.
The one quarterback who still warrants first-round consideration is Peyton Manning. The veteran should have enormous statistical success in his second season removed from an NFL record 49 touchdown passes, even without Edgerrin James (Cardinals) in the backfield. But once this Manning is off the board, the position takes a noted turn downward.
Super Bowl hero Tom Brady is solid and consistent -- he led the league with 4,110 passing yards and has thrown at least 26 touchdowns in three of the past four seasons -- but whether he's worth a second- to third-round selection is debatable. The same has to be said of Matt Hasselbeck, who was considered a productive option last season but could have been a little overrated based on his final numbers.
Hasselbeck threw 24 touchdowns on the season, one more than Drew Bledsoe (23) and Mark Brunell (23) and four more than Kerry Collins (20). Bledsoe and Brunell weren't even drafted in some cases, and Collins was considered an enormous disappointment in Oakland. What's more, a total of nine quarterbacks finished with more passing yards than Hasselbeck, a list that includes Trent Green, Brett Favre and Collins.
What did those three field generals have in common? All were considered busts last season.
Injuries will affect the values of Daunte Culpepper and Carson Palmer, who would have been worth first- or second-round selections at 100 percent. Culpepper tore three ligaments in his right knee in a loss to the Carolina Panthers last October, and whether he'll be available for the start of the regular season is uncertain. Culpepper has impressed his new Miami teammates with his arm strength and been able to make some lateral movements in Dolphins practice, but there's no guarantee he will be under center against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Sept. 7 opener.
Furthermore, owners have to be concerned with Culpepper's futile numbers (1,564 yards, six TDs, 12 INTs, three fumbles) in seven starts last season before he sustained the injured knee.
Palmer, who suffered severe ACL and MCL damage, a dislocated kneecap and cartilage and tissue damage on his first career postseason throw -- a 66-yard completion to rookie wideout Chris Henry -- continues to rehab and wants to be under center Sept. 10 when Cincinnati opens its season in Kansas City.
But that sort of accomplishment would take a small miracle.
Most players need at least eight to 12 months to recover from such a horrific ailment, so it's hard to envision a scenario where Palmer (who injured the knee Jan. 8) wouldn't miss at least a few starts despite what has been a rehabilitation free of setbacks. Palmer's health will cause him to fall into at least the third or fourth round, and there's little doubt that Culpepper could fall even further than that.
Countless fans would argue that Donovan McNabb should be mentioned with the league's elite quarterbacks, and that's true on the field but not in drafts. While McNabb was a top-five quarterback even before he had Terrell Owens, his overall stats were increased because of his prowess as a runner.
McNabb has become much more of a pocket passer, however, and his numbers on the ground back it. He has experienced a decrease in rushing totals in each of the past six seasons and averaged a mere 6.1 yards per starts last season, so much of his statistical success will be dependent on a list of receivers that includes the inexperienced Reggie Brown and mediocre veterans like Jabar Gaffney, Greg Lewis and Todd Pinkston.
Because of this uncertainty surrounding some of the most talented starters at the quarterback position, much of the focus in the first four rounds will be on running backs, wide receivers and top-tier tight ends (Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey). A few quarterbacks (Manning, Brady, Hasselbeck) will also be in the mix, but the flow of most drafts will make it easier for owners to pass on field generals until the middle stanzas.
There are several quarterbacks who have the potential to become terrific draft bargains, and that list starts with Eli Manning. While he was inconsistent at times for the Giants and faltered in the postseason, Manning is still a breakout candidate with the skills and weapons to record close to 4,000 yards and 25-30 total touchdowns. Injuries have been a problem for Marc Bulger, but he too has a serious arsenal in an offense that should allow him to succeed.
Kurt Warner isn't the same quarterback who recorded 4,353 yards and 41 touchdowns back in 1999, but he did throw for at least 285 yards in five of his final seven starts last season and now boasts James and the league's best duo of wide receivers, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Bledsoe now has the ultra-talented Terrell Owens on offense, so a season with close to 4,000 yards and 25-30 touchdowns is well within reach.
The list of viable starters who will fall into the middle rounds also includes Green, Favre and Drew Brees, who should be 100 percent recovered from an injured shoulder for the start of the season. Ben Roethlisberger has missed some time due to injuries, but it's hard to argue with his level of production when he's between the white lines. Based on the stats from his 12 starts last season, Roethlisberger would have finished with 3,180 yards and an impressive 27 total touchdowns. That would have him tied for third at the position with Brady in total touchdowns behind Palmer (33) and Peyton Manning (28).
Jake Delhomme, who recorded 25 total touchdowns, now has Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson on offense and possesses the tools to start in most leagues. Michael Vick, Byron Leftwich, Aaron Brooks, Jake Plummer, Mark Brunell and Steve McNair also have the skills to be starters, and most will be available in the latter rounds and selected as No. 2 starters. In larger leagues, potential sleepers like Jon Kitna, Philip Rivers and David Carr will also receive late-round consideration.
With the knowledge that such talented quarterbacks will be on the board that far into drafts, owners should be certain to map out their strategies accordingly and make educated decisions in each round in order to build a team that can contend for the ultimate prize -- a Fantasy Football championship.
Reader Feedback
Michael: What have you heard about the backfield situation in Chicago? Will it be Thomas Jones or Cedric Benson?
M.F.: Reports out of Chicago indicate Jones isn't thrilled that he makes less money than Benson, which is part of the reason he didn't show up for team workouts and wants a trade. A backfield committee could loom, but the coaches will allow Benson every chance to win the top spot on the depth chart. The Bears want a return on their rather large investment in Benson, so I would consider him the favorite to start at this point.
Daniel Carbo: How is it that Warrick Dunn is always listed outside of the top 20 at running back? He receives 20 touches a game, and his skills as a receiver out of the backfield makes up for the fact that he loses touchdown chances near the goal line.
M.F.: I have Dunn listed 22nd, which makes him a solid No. 2 back in most formats. Sure, his skills as a receiver make him a better choice in drafts, but he hasn't recorded 30 receptions in each of the past two seasons. Furthermore, the fact that Dunn is 31 and will continue to lose carries to T.J. Duckett is enough to keep him out of the top 20.
Devon Pulliam: Robert Ferguson and Greg Jennings are both on your wide receiver rankings, but I don't see Rod Gardner. Don't you think he has a chance to outscore both of them with Favre back in the mix?
M.F.: Gardner could make an impact for the Packers, but I don't see it after his failures in both Washington and Carolina. Ferguson is slated to start with Donald Driver and Jennings has far more potential than Gardner, who is worth no more than a late-round flier in larger leagues.
Tony: Where's the love for Jake Plummer? Denver acquires Javon Walker to improve the pass attack and the Snake is still ranked 19th? This makes no sense at all.
M.F.: The basis for Plummer's rank lies in Denver's success last season when he threw less and the team ran more. The Broncos went 10-6 and were hammered 49-24 by the Colts in the first round of the 2004 postseason when Plummer had his best statistical season. Last season the team went 13-3, won their division and reached the AFC Championship Game with Plummer in a decreased role, so I expect head coach Mike Shanahan to follow form and utilize his backs in a prominent fashion once again. The addition of Walker is a positive move, but he's coming off reconstructuve knee surgery and will have to shake off the rust and regain his confidence. Plummer is well worth a late-round choice, but he's not a starter in most formats.
Joe Mancini: Would you trade Samkon Gado and Javon Walker for the second overall pick in a dynasty league? Either Laurence Maroney or DeAngelo Williams will be available.
M.F.: There's no question that I would make this trade. Gado is no lock to even be second on the depth chart in Green Bay, and Walker's a nice keeper but not on the same level as either Maroney or Williams from a long-term perspective.
Mailbag
Wil Blumhorst, Kansas City: Which two players should I keep: Domanick Davis, Marvin Harrison, James or Peyton Manning?M.F.: All four have a nice level of keeper value, but I'd have to pass on Davis and Harrison and retain James and Manning.
Justin Cinfel, Fresno, Calif.: Should I retain Thomas Jones or Jamal Lewis?
M.F.: Jones was far more productive than Lewis last season, but he could be on the verge of a lesser role as the Bears look to utilize Benson. Lewis, who will turn 27 in August, didn't spend this offseason in prison and should be 100 percent to start the season.
Sean D. Boggs: Which running back should I retain: Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee or Carnell Williams?
M.F.: All three are solid options, but I like Williams a bit more than Jackson and McGahee. Tampa's offseason additions on the offensive line and at fullback (Jerald Sowell) seem to indicate a greater focus on Williams and the run, and I think his future in bright under head coach Jon Gruden.
Geoff Haskell, Denver, Colo.: What would the arrival of McNair do to the value of his old teammate, Derrick Mason?
M.F.: When and if McNair lands in Baltimore, it would make Mason far more attractive in drafts. He would move into the top 20 on draft boards at the wide receiver position and again have the potential for 1,200 yards and six to eight touchdowns, compared to his 1,073 yards and three scores last season.
Ken Moyer, Allentown, Pa.: We are allowed to retain one offensive and one defensive player in our 16-team keeper league, and I need to choose between Zach Thomas and Lofa Tatupu. It's difficult because Tatupu has the long-term potential but Thomas helped me win the league last season.
M.F.: Thomas had far more tackles (158 total) than Tatupu (104 total) last season, and the addition of WLB Julian Peterson in Seattle could hurt the latter's numbers. It's also hard to overlook the fact that Thomas has recorded at least 145 total tackles for five consecutive seasons and is the heart and soul of the Miami defense. Unless it's a long-term league (three-plus seasons), in which case Tatupu would be the better choice, it's hard to release Thomas.
You can e-mail your questions to us at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com Be sure to put Attn: In the Trenches in the subject field. Please be aware that due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.
Michael Fabiano is the champion of the 2005 Gridiron Guru League II.














