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The New York Jets offensive makeover began with Adam Gase's departure from the team and the hiring of Mike LaFleur as offensive coordinator, but the personnel side of things still needs a lot of work. While we're still waiting to know who the quarterback will be, we did find out who the No. 1 receiver will be Monday, as the Jets reportedly agreed to a three-year deal with free agent Corey Davis.

The deal will reportedly pay Davis $37.5 million, including $27 million guaranteed, the eighth-most for any wide receiver in the NFL, just ahead of Keenan Allen's $26.5 million guaranteed. Davis, the fifth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, had a career year after the Titans opted not to pick up his fifth-year option in 2020, catching 65 passes for 984 yards and five touchdowns in 14 games, finishing 31st among wide receivers in PPR scoring per game. And he did that in a low-volume passing offense while sharing the field with A.J. Brown, who finished as the No. 7 WR this season. So, what can he do as a No. 1?

Well, it's nearly impossible to answer that question right now, because we know very little about what the Jets offense will look like in 2021. LaFleur has never been an offensive coordinator before -- he was the 49ers passing game coordinator before being hired to the Jets -- and we don't know who the quarterback for the Jets will be. The QB and the coaching staff … well, those are two pretty important parts of an offense. 

Still, we can assume the Jets offense will be better than it was last season, if only because it's hard to be worse than they were. If they just made the jump from 31st in passing yards to 25th -- still quite bad! -- they would have passed for nearly 600 yards more in 2020. Similarly, an improvement from 30th in passing touchdowns to 25th would have seen them increase from 16 to 21 passing touchdowns. Again, still quite bad, but a lot better than they were, and that seems like a fairly safe assumption to make. 

And, while we can't know for sure who will play quarterback for the Jets, expectations shouldn't be that different no matter who it is. Sure, Sam Darnold increasingly looks like a bust, but it's not like most rookie quarterbacks are great -- Justin Herbert is the exception -- so expectations should be fairly similar. I've got Darnold currently projected for 7.0 yards per attempt and 21 touchdowns on 534 pass attempts, and I'm not sure a rookie would improve much on that, so we'll go with that as the baseline.

Davis figures to be the No. 1 receiver in this offense, with second-year pro Denzel Mims and slot receiver Jamison Crowder the only other pass catchers of note on the team. I'll give Davis a 23.5% target share in this offense with a 62% catch rate and 13.5 yards per reception -- his career rates are 13.8 Y/R and 61.2%, but he's been at 67.1% and 14.7 over the last two seasons, so we'll split the difference somewhat. That would get him to 78 catches and 1,051 yards on 126 targets, a bit below his 16-game pace from 2020. Add in six touchdowns, and I've got Davis as WR27 in this first run of the rankings.

That might feel a bit bold, but given the lack of competition and the likely regression for the offense as a whole, it might not be too far off the mark. The Jets still have a lot of work to do, and we'll get more questions as free agency moves forward, and then even more with the NFL Draft, but that's where I land on him right now. That makes Davis a viable starter in my eyes, and one worth looking for beginning in the Round 5 range for now. Obviously, the rest of the Jets offseason could change that, but for now, it seems like a pretty great landing spot.