2022 PGA Championship predictions, picks, favorites: One of these nine golfers will win at Southern Hills
Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy are all playing tremendous golf as they seek the Wanamaker Trophy
By
Kyle Porter
•
6 min read
TULSA, Okla. -- Every Wednesday before a major championship begins, a conundrum falls upon golf fans and analysts. After all the studying, analyzing and hand-wringing, it always feels like only about five golfers can win that week's event. This isn't true, of course, but it feels true, which makes it a pseudo-reality until the first round leaderboard starts to take shape.
There are a hundred reasons this begins to feel true, but most prominent among them is that it's so difficult to envision, say, Russell Henley beating guys like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thoms in the primes of their careers at the 2022 PGA Championship. And yet, Henley led the 2021 U.S. Open after three rounds, so it certainly can happen. It just doesn't feel like it on Wednesdays with time to go until tournaments officially start.
With that in mind, I've put together a pool of golfers from which it seems most likely the winner will come from at the PGA Championship this year. If Las Vegas gave you odds on this pool against the field, this group of nine would certainly be shorter odds than the other 147 golfers at Southern Hills combined. Be sure to check out Round 1 tee times so you know when your favorites will take the course and view the full PGA Championship TV schedule and coverage guide.
So, let's take a look at the group and why the champion on Sunday will come from out of these nine players. Also, don't miss our full slate of PGA Championship picks and expert predictions. Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
| 1 | |
| The No. 1 player in the world and current Masters champion is oozing confidence and seemingly impervious to any exterior forces that would conspire to work against him following one of the great heaters in recent memory. "Living in the moment is usually what works best for me," said Scheffler. "... I don't want to get too high or get too low. So, if you guys are really building me up ... U may not prepare as hard because I show up being like, 'I'm the guy, I'm the man, and no one can touch me.' That doesn't work for me. And if I show up too low [and] you guys are saying, 'Oh, Scottie doesn't have it. He's not any good anymore.' Then I'm going to show up and maybe I'm going to prepare too hard; I'm not going to get enough rest. So, for me, kind of staying in my own lane and doing my own thing is what works best." Scheffler has a lot of things going for him this week, but the most important one is that he's marrying great iron play with the confidence that he can get up and down from anywhere in the yard. He'll almost certainly contend for an event that would get him halfway to the 2022 grand slam. Odds: 11-1 | |
| 2 | |
| After seeing Southern Hills on Tuesday, it's easy to understand why this is going to be Spieth's best chance at a PGA Championship for the next several years. The fairways are wide, the greens are menacing, and you're going to have to pull off some laugh-out-loud shots around the greens to win the tournament, which is more or less what Spieth has built his already-hall-of-fame-worthy career around. It would be nearly as shocking if he didn't contend as it would be if Scheffler didn't. Odds: 16-1 | |
| 3 | |
| Thus rounds out the trio of players I believe are most likely to contend for this championship. McIlroy was upbeat in his presser on Tuesday, and he's been playing outstanding golf. Most curious to me is that he's been the best player in this field in gaining strokes around the greens since the start of the year. That bodes well for this week and speaks to his underrated short game. "One of the things I loved is the way they've cut the runoffs," said McIlroy. "It's very hard to putt from off the greens. They're trying to get wedges in guys' hands, which I really like. It's forcing you to chip instead of ... like whenever Pinehurst was, 2014, you could putt from sort of everywhere. This is actually forcing you to get a wedge in your hand, which is really good. I like that." McIlroy's chances will probably come down to whether he can hold enough greens with short irons to put together a score. Odds: 14-1 | |
| 4 | |
| The 2019 Open Championship inner is my pick to win this week. He's coming off a T3 at the Masters and another one at the RBC Heritage, and he's playing nearly as well as Scheffler over his last handful of events. We know he has the goods to deliver a major on a Sunday (even if he doubted himself at Royal Portrush three years ago), and his elite iron game and magical hands will benefit him around Southern Hills. Odds: 28-1 | |
| 5 | |
| It's pretty simple for Morikawa. His statistics suggest that if he putts, he wins. He has the ability to absolutely dissect this golf course with his iron play in a way that only a handful of players in the world possibly can. If he's feeling it on the greens like he was at Royal St. George's last July, it's going to be an absolute show. Odds: 18-1 | |
| 6 | |
| There's a bit of the forgotten man vibe with Rahm right now. He won in his last start in Mexico, but the only consistent part of his game so far this year has been off the tee. Everywhere else he's been a bit up and down, which concerns me when it comes to getting up and down at Southern Hills. Still, he's generationally great, has been a recent menace at majors and should benefit from how difficult Southern Hills will play. The PGA is where his preposterous run of ripping off eight straight top 10s worldwide started last year. Odds: 12-1 | |
| 7 | |
| If the PGA was played with everybody dropping a ball in the fairway to start a hole, Smith would probably win going away. If he can keep it in play -- and that shouldn't be extraordinarily difficult given how wide these fairways are after Gil Hanse's redesign -- he should be as competitive as he was at Augusta National. Odds: 22-1 | |
| 8 | |
| It's so easy to see him getting into an aerial dual with Morikawa with every approach more outrageous than the last one. J.T. seems to work himself into the type of trouble at major championships that's easily prevented, and if he can avoid that for the first few days, it could be lights out on the weekend. Odds: 14-1 | |
| 9 | |
| The last of the world class droppers of a ball into a silo from preposterous heights. Matsuyama is playing tremendous golf (T14 at the Masters, T3 at the Nelson last week), and this course should suit his strenghts perfectly. He's perhaps second string behind Morikawa on the "if he putts, it's over" team. Odds: 22-1 | |
Who will win the PGA Championship, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed eight golf majors, including this year's Masters.
