2022 Tournament of Champions picks, field grade, odds, golf predictions, best bets at Kapalua
The first PGA Tour event of 2022 headlines with an elite field and a battle for the No. 1 ranking in the world
By
Kyle Porter
•
4 min read
New year, new tournament, same prevailing excitement for PGA Tour golf. The 2022 Tournament of Champions, a sneaky great event on the schedule, takes place this week in Hawaii as Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa headline the first tournament of what should be a crazy -- and fun -- new year of golf.
Let's take a closer look at this week's contest with odds provided via Caesars Sportsbook.
Event information
Event: Tournament of Champions| Dates: Jan. 6-8
Location: Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course) -- Kapalua, Hawaii
Par: 73 | Purse: $8 million
Best bets: Five picks to make from Tournament of Champions field
Three things to know
1. Bryson begins: I know the Rahm-Morikawa battle for No. 1 or Xander Schauffele trying to win for the first time in three years or J.T. trying to expunge a mediocre 2021 or any number of stories are probably more important, but I'm unconvinced that they're more compelling. I have no idea what we're getting from DeChambeau this week, but I know this time last year he had somebody on his team run and shield his golf ball on the green from the wind with an umbrella. He also discussed near-blackout training sessions with Kyle Berkshire in the offseason as he trained for more and more distance. Then he went out and led the field by a wide margin in strokes gained off the tee but finished T7 at the end of the week because his short game was mediocre. In light of all of that, and everything else he's done over the course of his ridiculous career, I'm prepared for pretty much anything this time around.
2. Spieth returns: Spieth has not qualified for this event since the 2018 edition (the year after he won the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale), but he boasts the best strokes-gained number (2.81) historically on this course of anyone in this field. He's talked before about how he favors places like Kapalua which require athleticism off of funky lies and keeps you thinking about what you're trying to do with the shot in front of you. His history here -- ninth, first, second and first in four appearances -- proves it.
3. Phil's first appearance in two decades: Mickelson said on Twitter recently that he was playing the Tournament of Champions at least partly because he has to play an event he hasn't played in a while to get the second half of his PIP money (which apparently was $8 million overall). Imagine being forced to go to Hawaii to play golf to start a new year to collect $4 million and then getting to play for another $1.4 million while you're there.
Rick Gehman is joined by Kyle Porter, Greg DuCharme and Mark Immelman to preview the 2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Grading the field
The only player who qualified -- players qualify by winning in the previous calendar year -- but did not make the trip is Rory McIlroy, who will instead start his year in the Middle East on the DP World Tour. Still, this field includes 16 of the top 20 players in the world with all four major winners from last year present and appearances from guys who won last year that we may have forgotten about, like Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger and Patrick Reed. One notable golfer who actually did not win on the PGA Tour in 2021 is Dustin Johnson, who has always been a staple here. Grade: A
2022 Tournament of Champions picks
| Winner (12-1): While driving distance can be an advantage (see notes on DeChambeau below), the highest correlation to success at Kapalua over the last few years has been elite iron play. This is because there's a wider variance in how many strokes golfers gain on approach than there is off the tee, and the best iron players have shined. Look at the last six winners: Harris Engligh, Justin Thomas (twice), Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth. Elite iron players, and Schauffele is going to get his first win in three years here to secure a return trip in 2023. |
| Top 10 (-110): DeChambeau's advantage off the tee when courses are super tight or incredibly wide (like this one) is immense. He was so much better off the tee last year than the second-best driver (1.6 strokes gained per round to Sergio Garcia's 1.01), and he almost doubled the fourth-best player off the tee (Xander Schauffele). If that happens again, and I have no reason to believe that it won't, he's just such a lock to finish in the top 10 unless the rest of his game is a disaster. |
| Sleeper (40-1): Over the last 12 months, Gooch has better approach numbers than Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau. He's undervalued at 40-1 and was an easy choice here as he's coming off a fall in which he finished in the top 15 in five of his six events, including a win in his last start at the RSM Classic. I worry a little about his play off the tee, but I don't worry at all about an iron game that has been third-best in the world over the last 20 rounds everyone has played. |
Who will win the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that's nailed seven golf majors and is up almost $10,000 since the restart.
