2016 MLB team preview: Detroit Tigers on brink of being contenders?

Spring training is well underway, so what better time to start running through our annual team-by-team previews? We're running these in reverse order of 2015 finish, and now the Detroit Tigers are up.

Previous: ATL | CIN | COL | MIA | MIL | OAK | PHI | SD

Few teams in 2015 went home as disappointed as the Detroit Tigers, at least compared to preseason expectations. The Tigers entered the season as the four-time defending AL Central champs, a four-year stretch that included three trips to the ALCS and one pennant.

It looked like a repeat was in order for a little while. The Tigers started 11-2 and were even tied for first place at late as May 16 at 23-14. They would hit the All-Star break at exactly .500 (44-44), but a bad second half meant the Tigers would end up 74-87, the second-worst record in the AL and Detroit's worst mark since 2008.

Armed with a new general manager, Al Avila -- owner Mike Ilitch didn't take kindly to Dave Dombrowski selling off at the trade deadline -- the Tigers reloaded in an aggressive offseason. They added frontline starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann, big-time slugger Justin Upton and back-end relievers Francisco Rodriguez and Mark Lowe.

Will it be enough to topple the World Series champion Royals, not to mention the pitching-strong Indians, improved White Sox and upstart Twins in a competitive AL Central? Let's take a look.

The Lineup

As we'll note with pretty much every team, this is just a rough outline of what could be the best lineup at the disposal of manager Brad Ausmus. "Regular" lineups aren't really a thing, as the Tigers' most frequent lineups last year were used five times (there were two of them).

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Justin Upton , LF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. J.D. Martinez, RF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. James McCann, C
8. Jose Iglesias, SS
9. Anthony Gose, CF

I like the speed dynamic Iglesias and Gose have at the end of the order before a power-packed top of the order. If both get on base at a decent clip, it adds an interesting layer here.

Of course, the headline is the top five. There's potential for it to be the most formidable top of the order in baseball. Kinsler is coming off a big year, we know what Upton and Cabrera can do and J.D. Martinez has established that his ability as a top-line home run hitter isn't a fluke.

The question here, of course, is Victor Martinez. His absurd 2014 season was a total outlier and everyone paying attention knew that. It was a career year at age 35. He'd never hit more than 25 homers in a season and then went for 32. He set career highs in hits, home runs, average, on-base percentage, slugging, total bases and shattered his previous high in intentional walks (28, his previous high was 12).

So throw that out.

What if he returns to 2013 form, though? Martinez hit .301/.355/.430 with 36 doubles and 14 homers. If his knees can hold up for a full season and produce that, the Tigers' 1-5 in the order is incredibly potent.

Doesn't Castellanos have room for growth, too? The former sandwich pick (between first and second rounds) was long hailed as a top-50 prospect in baseball before his promotion and he's still only 24. He hit .255 with 33 doubles and 15 homers last year, but the 152 strikeouts versus 39 walks could be improved upon (leading to a .303 OBP). Working the strike zone better gets him up to around a .325 OBP and 20-25 homers. That would be a huge boost to an already-strong offense.

As for the bench, it's already suffered a blow. Cameron Maybin was set to split time with Gose in center, but he's out 4-6 weeks.

Can Jarrod Saltalamacchia revert to 2013 form? Doubtful, but it's worth it to find out as a backup catcher to McCann here. Bryan Holaday can figure in the mix as well. Mike Aviles, Andrew Romine and Tyler Collins round out the bench depth until Maybin can return.

In terms of prospect impact, we won't likely see much. Dixon Machado is an outstanding defender who could step in for Iglesias in case of injury, but he can't hit a lick.

The Rotation

1. Justin Verlander, RHP
2. Jordan Zimmermann , RHP
3. Anibal Sanchez, RHP
4. Daniel Norris, LHP
5. Mike Pelfrey, RHP

We're never going to be treated to Vintage Verlander again, but he can still be plenty effective moving into his mid-30s. In his last 14 starts in 2015, Verlander posted a 2.27 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a paltry .207/.249/.299 line. Fourteen starts isn't really a small sample, so I'm trusting it, considering it's Verlander.

Zimmermann is coming off a down year (his ERA dropped by exactly a run), but he's plenty capable of producing 200 innings of work that resembles a fine number two starter.

Sanchez is coming off a disaster of a season in which he dealt with injury and he's had triceps soreness in camp so far. He did get good news Wednesday (detroitnews.com), though, so maybe he's turning the corner. Sanchez is only two seasons removed from leading the AL in ERA and FIP, but home runs uncharacteristically did him in last year. If he gets that back on track, expect a bounce-back campaign.

Norris has breakout potential after a very weird rookie season. He made 13 total starts, going 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 45 strikeouts in 60 innings. He battled shoulder issues until an MRI revealed a cancerous growth. He's had it removed and is cancer-free. Now that he has that out of the way, he should find a home in the Tigers' rotation and start to scrape the surface of his immense potential (Baseball America ranked him as the 18th-best prospect in baseball last spring).

Pelfrey's job will essentially be to not suck.

Shane Greene is another option here, but, boy, was he a disaster last season. Matt Boyd and Kyle Ryan could get looks, but the upside is relatively limited.

How about Michael Fulmer? The 6-foot-3 right-hander is considered the Tigers' top prospect. In 22 starts last year (21 of which were in Double-A, the other coming in high Class A), Fulmer was 10-3 with a 2.24 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 125 strikeouts in 124 2/3 innings. It's a longshot that he'll make an impact early in the season, but track his progress, Tigers fans. He could be a huge shot in the arm down the stretch.

The Bullpen

With the bullpen being an Achilles heel in recent years, Avila went out to grab K-Rod and Lowe to help shore things up.

I know it feels like he's been around since the mound was lowered, but K-Rod is actually still only 34. He's coming off his second straight All-Star trip and had a 2.21 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 62 strikeouts in 57 innings last season for a bad Brewers team. He's more than fine as a closer of a hopeful contender.

While we're here, Rodriguez has 386 career saves, which is seventh all time. His fifth save this season gets him past Dennis Eckersley. If he saves 39 games this year (he had 38 last year), he'll pass both Billy Wagner and John Franco, moving into fourth all-time behind Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith. This is definitely something to watch.

Anywho, Lowe is also coming off a very good season, though his track record leaves a lot to be desired. Prior to 2015, he had a career 4.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Last season it was a 1.96 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, but the numbers were drastically worse once he was traded to Toronto. He was good at stranding inherited runners and he's always had pretty good success in that department.

Behind these two, there's actually potential for a quality bullpen. Lefty Justin Wilson had a good season for the Yankees last year while righties Alex Wilson and Blaine Hardy gave the Tigers some very nice work in their own right.

Can we dream on Bruce Rondon? He was essentially kicked off the team in September for what sound like attitude/effort problems. This is from just five days ago, though (via mlive.com):

"His ability will shine through, I think, if he has the right approach, both in practice and when he takes the mound," Ausmus said. "I think he seems to have turned a little bit of a corner."

He went out and worked a spotless inning after that quote. His stuff is electric and he's only 25.

Though there's plenty of downside, the Tigers have the pieces to emerge this season with a good bullpen.

The Outlook

If you squint strongly, isn't there enough here to justify a division championship? The offense is plenty potent, the rotation has that kind of ability and the bullpen has enough upside.

Of course ...

Shouldn't it be easier to justify a contender? We could go down a checklist of things that need to go right for the Tigers to break through and win 90-plus games again, but what's the realistic chance that the majority of those questions are answered in the positive?

Obviously every question won't be answered in the negative, either. The most realistic outcome is somewhere in the middle. The Tigers are most likely going to be improved from the 74 wins last season, but getting all the way to 90 seems a chore. Split the difference. 82-80 sounds reasonable.