Are 500 home runs enough to get David Ortiz into the Hall of Fame?
David Ortiz hit the 500th home run of his career Saturday night. Was that the the final piece of his Hall of Fame resume?
More Papi >> No. 500 | By the numbers | Steroid stigma unfair | Historic run | Next?
On Saturday night, Red Sox slugger David Ortiz hit a solo home run off Matt Moore for his 500th career homer. It was his second homer of the game. Ortiz has been a monster in the second half, swatting 19 home runs since the All-Star break to reach 500.
Once upon a time, 500 home runs meant automatic entry into the Hall of Fame. That is no longer the case. Barry Bonds (762), Sammy Sosa (609), Mark McGwire (583) and Rafael Palmeiro (569) are all in the 500-homer club yet none have come close to receiving enough votes to be inducted into Cooperstown.
If nothing else, 500 homers gives us a reason to review Ortiz's Hall of Fame candidacy. He will turn 40 in November, though his contract option for 2016 has already vested, so he'll have a chance to continue padding his resume next year. At this point though, the work is done. Ortiz's case has been built. Whatever he does from here on out is window dressing.
The Raw Stats
Ortiz went into Saturday's game as a career .284/.378/.546 (139 OPS+) hitter with 578 doubles, 499 home runs and 1,624 RBI in 9,396 plate appearances. He's spent the vast majority of his career as a DH -- only 277 of his 2,240 career games have come in the field -- and the Hall of Fame standard for a DH is quite high.
Edgar Martinez, for example, retired as a career .312/.418/.515 (147 OPS+) hitter with 514 doubles, 309 home runs and 1,291 RBI in 8,674 career plate appearances. He can't match Ortiz's longevity or counting stats, but Martinez was the better hitter on a rate basis by a not-small margin. Martinez has been on the Hall of Fame ballot for six years now and has yet to receive more than 36.5 percent of the vote.
Only 14 players in history have at least 2,000 plate appearances as a DH. Among those 14, Ortiz ranks seventh in batting average, third in on-base percentage, second in slugging percentage and third in OPS+. Ortiz does rank first in plate appearances (8,179), hits (2,006), doubles (503), home runs (444) and RBI (1,426) as a DH, all by considerable margins too.
We can't forget Ortiz's reputation for being a clutch hitter. He's a career .295/.409/.553 hitter with 17 homers in 82 postseason games and is also a career .293/.407/.521 hitter with runners in scoring position. When the game was on the line, Ortiz was a guy you wanted at the plate (or didn't want to see if you were a pitcher).
The counting stats suggest Ortiz is the greatest DH in baseball history. The rate stats suggest he is merely in the conversation along with Martinez and Hall of Famers Paul Molitor and Frank Thomas.

Hardware
Ortiz is a nine-time All-Star and a five-time Silver Slugger, though he's never won an MVP. He did finish in the top five of the MVP voting every year from 2003-07, including second in 2005, but he never did win the award. Ortiz has one home-run title (54 in 2006) and two RBI titles (148 in 2005 and 137 in 2006) to his name.
Three World Series rings will definitely help Ortiz come Hall of Fame voting time, especially since he helped the Red Sox end the Curse of the Bambino in 2004. While World Series wins are a team accomplishment, not an individual accomplishment, there's no denying Ortiz was a major part of those title teams. He was named MVP of the 2004 ALCS and 2013 World Series, after all.
Major awards and World Series rings help a player's Hall of Fame candidacy, but they are not imperative. Tony Gwynn never won an MVP or a World Series, for example. Hardware is one of those things that can help a Hall of Fame case but not hurt it.
Popularity
Ortiz has been, without question, one of the most popular players in baseball while he's been with the Red Sox, both among fans and the media. (That last part is important. The media votes for the Hall of Fame!) He's been on the cover of video games, among the best-selling jerseys, you name it. Ortiz has done a lot of charity work through the years as well. The Big Papi persona has made Ortiz an icon in Boston and one of the most recognizable athletes in the world, and that will definitely be considered when Hall of Fame voting time comes. Big Papi aces the "Fame" part of the Hall of Fame.
Performance-Enhancing Drug Cloud
Unfortunately, this is where Ortiz's Hall of Fame case gets murky. Ortiz was one of several players who tested positive for a banned substance during the league's initial screening back in 2003, the results of which were supposed to remain confidential. (MLB wanted to see how widespread PED use was at the time to determine whether they needed to improve their testing system.)
Ortiz's name leaked in 2009 along with several others, at which point he held a press conference and gave no real answers or explanation.
“The news blindsided me," he said. "Based on the way I have lived my life, I am surprised to learn I tested positive. Two, I will find out what I tested positive for. And, three, based on whatever I learn, I will share this information with my club and the public. You know me - I will not hide and I will not make excuses.”
Ortiz never did share his findings -- it wasn't until four years later that he was asked a follow-up question -- and has largely gotten a pass from fans and media. Many players have been vilified for their PED ties. Others like Ortiz and Andy Pettitte have gotten a free pass, and it's not hard to think that is due to their popularity.
Aside from that initial screening in 2013, Ortiz has never failed a PED test or been disciplined in any way. MLB officially implemented a PED testing and disciplinary program in 2004 -- the program has been improved and gotten more strict over the years -- and Ortiz has never had any issues whatsoever.
Ortiz's only connection to PEDs is the leaked 2003 screening results, which were to remain confidential. That's all.
Verdict
There is no doubt Ortiz's resume is, at the very least, worthy of serious Hall of Fame consideration. The stats say he is one of the greatest DHs ever, and he is certainly among the most popular players of his era. Simply put, Big Papi is one of the best hitters and most memorable players of his generation.
The PED cloud complicates everything, however. Hall of Fame voters have shown they will come down hard on anyone even remotely suspected of PED use. There doesn't even need to be a positive test. Ask Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza, two guys with first-ballot Hall of Fame resumes who are on the outside looking in due to suspected PED use. Not even proven or alleged PED use. Suspected.
Ortiz is at least six years away from appearing on the Hall of Fame ballot -- that assumes he retires following next season -- and the voting body will change quite a bit by then. For example, veteran inactive BBWAA members were removed from the voting body this year. That affects over 100 voters this year alone. The voting body is getting younger, if nothing else.
My guess -- and this is just an educated guess at this point in time -- is Ortiz eventually does make it into the Hall of Fame, though not on the first ballot. He could end up spending four of five years on the ballot a la Piazza. I think the changes in the voting body over time will lead to fewer players with PED ties being shunned, which will help Ortiz.
The Hall of Fame resume is there in my opinion. It was there before Ortiz reached 500 home runs. The only thing standing in his way of Cooperstown are the PED ties.















