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The Diamondbacks lost to the Dodgers by a score of 5-4 (box score) on Thursday night in L.A. The Dodgers are playing .667 ball, so in that sense there's nothing unusual about losing to them. What is notable, however, is how the Diamondbacks fell. 

Entering the bottom of the ninth, the Snakes had a 4-1 lead and a 96.5 percent chance of winning the game. They handed the ball to closer Fernando Rodney, who promptly did this ... 

At that point, the score was tied, and after an intentional walk of Justin Turner, manager Torey Lovullo lifted Rodney in favor of T.J. McFarland, who allowed a sharp walk-off single to Chris Taylor. Here's what it all looked like on state-of-the-art color television ... 

That was a particularly damaging loss for Arizona. Had they held that lead and thus avoided the sweep, they would've been 3 1/2 games out of first place and heading into a nine-game stretch against the Reds and Braves. Instead, they're 5 1/2 back of the NL's best team. 

This speaks to a larger issue, of course, that's Arizona's uncertain outlook at closer. Rodney garnered attention for not allowing a hit for the entire month of June, but his overall numbers remain far below the standards of a high-leverage reliever (21 runs allowed in 30 1/3 innings with a sub-2.00 K/BB ratio). That's not particularly surprising, as Rodney is in his age-40 season. Yes, he's got 282 saves to his credit, but Rodney's always been pretty erratic, especially as closers go. For evidence of this look no further than what Rodney's done before and after being traded in each of the last two seasons (from the Mariners to the Cubs in 2015 and from the Padres to the Mariners last year) ...

Time period

ERA

K/BB ratio

Before trade, 2015

5.68

1.72

After trade, 2015

0.75

3.75

Before trade, 2016

0.31

2.75

After trade, 2016

5.89

1.64

 
Part of this is of course the partial-season small sample that's an indelible part of being a reliever. Rodney, though, is volatile even in that context. In his forties, he's even more of an unknown quantity. 

From the team's standpoint, this is defensible. The Dbacks didn't expect to contend this season, and non-contenders very often punt the closer's role because locking down those late-inning leads doesn't mean as much. Now, though, Arizona is in strong wild-card position, and the status quo becomes less acceptable the longer they remain in playoff position. Rodney, according to the rest-of-season projections available at FanGraphs, is pegged for an ERA of around 4.00. That's not disastrous, but it's not adequate for a reliever working important innings. 

One temptation would be to move Archie Bradley, who's been one of the best relievers in all of baseball this season, into the role. However, Bradley has been in some senses Lovullo's Andrew Miller this season. Thus far in 2017, Bradley's made 12 multi-inning appearances, and he's coming into the game as early as the fifth inning. That kind of "fireman" flexibility is hard to come by, especially when it comes in tandem with dominance. As such, moving Bradley out of that role and into the closer's spot would leave a big void in the bullpen. That's why the team should probably consider an external solution to this problem. 

That's the challenge for the front office. The Dbacks appear to be for real -- even after the sweep in L.A., they're on target for 98 wins, and just the Dodgers and Astros have a better run differential -- so dealing for a shutdown reliever prior to July 31 is more than justified. The problem is that the trade market places a high value on ace relievers, especially these days, and the Dbacks don't have a lot of tradable long-term assets who would be of interest to sellers. That puts them in a tough spot when it comes to achieving an obvious upgrade over Rodney. Teams are more willing to give failed starters with "play up" stuff a look in the bullpen, but can Arizona pull off such a transition on the fly while, presumably, even more leads are squandered? 

The problem in Arizona is easily identifiable. The solution is less so.