Thursday night, the Boston Red Sox dropped the rubber game of their three-game series with the Twins at Fenway Park (MIN 2, BOS 1). The game ended when Eddie Rosario threw the Rafael Devers out at the plate.

Here's the video of Rosario's walk-off outfield assist:

The loss was Boston's third in its past five games. The Red Sox are 75-65 on the season and remain on the periphery of the wild-card race. SportsLine puts their postseason odds at 1.3 percent. FanGraphs is a little more optimistic. They give the Red Sox at 3.5 percent chance to make the postseason.

Here are the American League wild-card standings at the start of business Friday:

  1. Tampa Bay Rays: 83-59 (+1/2 GB)
  2. Oakland Athletics: 81-58
  3. Cleveland Indians: 81-60 (1/2 GB)
  4. Boston Red Sox: 75-65 (6 1/2 GB)

The A's are on pace to win 94 games this season. If we assume 94 wins is what it'll take to secure the second wild-card spot, the Red Sox need to go 19-3 in their final 22 games to get there. Boston's best 22-game stretch this year was 16-6 back in late April and early May. It will have to play its best baseball of the season to have a shot at October, basically.

"Well, I mean. We have an 8 percent chance," manager Alex Cora told CBS Boston earlier this week. "So, I mean, like 'Dumb and Dumber,' you know? The movie. There's still a chance, I guess -- at least in my eyes."

The defending World Series champs open a four-game series with the Yankees at Fenway Park on Friday night. Boston's tragic number in the AL East is six, so losing three of four this weekend would officially eliminate the Red Sox from the division race. In reality, they're focused on the wild card and have been for weeks now. The division has been out of reach for months.

What has to happen for the Red Sox to make a miraculous run and qualify for the postseason, or even just force a Game 163 tiebreaker to determine the second wild-card spot? A few things. Here are the four biggest.

1. Get the most out of that 21-man pitching staff

Yes, the Red Sox are carrying 21 pitchers right now. Rosters expanded Sept. 1 and Boston wasted no time calling up pretty much every available arm. They have 17 -- 17! -- relievers in the bullpen. This graphic gave me a good laugh the other night:

David Price will not start Friday's series opener with the Yankees as scheduled. He's been pushed back with a wrist issue. As a result, the Red Sox will go with bullpen games Friday and Saturday -- the second bullpen game is essentially replacing the injured Chris Sale -- before Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez get the ball Sunday and Monday.

A 17-man bullpen will make for some long baseball games but it can also be advantageous. Having that many pitchers available allows Cora to mix and match and get the most desirable matchups on a daily basis, and he can even ensure opposing hitters do not see the same pitcher twice in one game. That's an obvious plus. Four at-bats against four different pitchers is no fun.

For all the concern about Boston's bullpen coming into the season, it really is the starting pitchers who have sunk their season. Sale was not himself before the injury and Porcello has been dreadful. Nathan Eovaldi's injury and ill-fated stint as the closer didn't help either. Look at the club's rotation and bullpen numbers:


IPERAWHIPK/9BB/9HR/9Opp. Batting Line

Starters

713 2/3

4.96

1.38

9.3

3.2

1.5

.264/.331/.453

Relievers

554 2/3

4.25

1.35

10.6

4.2

1.1

.233/.325/.398

Given that, relying heavily on the bullpen these final 21 games doesn't seem like such a bad idea. The 17-man bullpen allows Cora not only to mix and match, but also have a quick hook with Porcello (or any other starter) when he struggles. 

Either way, for the Red Sox to have a shot at the postseason, this 21-man pitching staff has to do what the 13-man pitching staff couldn't do from April through August, and that's give Boston a chance to win each night. You're going to see a lot of pitching changes and matchup situations these final few weeks, but, at this point, Cora & Co. don't have much of a choice.

2. Get the offense firing on all cylinders

Scoring runs has not been a problem for the 2019 Red Sox. They come into Friday averaging 5.72 runs per game this season, third most in baseball behind the Twins (5.89) and Yankees (5.79). However, since Aug. 1, the Red Sox are only 14th in MLB in runs scored and their team rate stats are underwhelming:

  • Batting average: .262 (11th in MLB)
  • On-base percentage: .333 (13th)
  • Slugging percentage: .494 (5th)

Boston's stars are playing like stars. Mookie Betts is hitting .302/.368/.603 since Aug. 1 -- he has five home runs in his past six games -- and J.D. Martinez is hitting .363/.448/.726. Xander Bogaerts has continued his excellent season with a .306/.368/.603 line since Aug. 1 as well. Those three have done their part the past few weeks.

Others like Devers (.265/.307/.545) and Christian Vazquez (.262/.288/.430) have slipped a bit from where they were earlier this year, plus guys like Mitch Moreland (.262/.360/.385) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.189/.307/.473) haven't done much the last few weeks. The power numbers are still there for Devers and Bradley, and Moreland is getting on base, but that's about it.

Overall, the Red Sox have scored plenty this season, and now they need their offense to get back to firing on all cylinders. That means Betts and Martinez stay red-hot, Devers resumes mashing like an MVP candidate, and Moreland, Vazquez, and Bradley serve as threats near the bottom of the lineup.

Given the personnel, it's hard to believe Boston is only 14th in runs scored since Aug. 1. There are nights -- more than the team would like, I reckon -- the Red Sox have to outscore their own pitching staff to win. That will continue to be the case down the stretch as they try to get back into the wild-card race.

3. Get help from other teams

The Red Sox have 22 games remaining and only four are against a team they are chasing in the wild-card race. They have a four-game series with the AL East rival Rays in Tropicana Field from Sept. 20-23. That's it. Boston does not play the Indians or Athletics again this season, so they're going to have to hope other teams beat Cleveland and Oakland for them.

"So you control two things -- the way you play, and the Rays, because we play four games," Cora told CBS Boston. "You don't control the Indians, you don't control the A's. That's out of the equation, although we started controlling the Indians when we beat them two out of three [last month]. That's all we can do. Keep playing baseball and winning games, and make that series count in September, and hopefully by that time we're past one of the two teams. If that happens, then the last week in September is going to be fun."

It should be noted the A's, Indians, and Rays do not have any head-to-head games remaining. That means Boston can't count on those teams beating up on each other down the stretch, even for one quick little three-game series. The Red Sox have to take care of their own business first and foremost, but they also have no choice but to scoreboard watch down the stretch.

4. Get a little lucky

Yeah, it's time to start hoping for lucky bounces and friendly home plate umpires. Things typically beyond your control that break your way, you know? The Red Sox most definitely did not get lucky Thursday night, when Rosario made that perfect throw to the plate to end the game. If the throw is a little off-line, Devers is safe and the game is tied. Boston hasn't caught many breaks lately and in addition to playing well, they'll need things those lucky bounces and fortunate calls to go their way a little more often.