Roger Clemens has the numbers, but the Hall still seems like a long shot. (USATSI)
Roger Clemens has the numbers, but the Hall still seems like a long shot. (USATSI)

For the next several days, we at Eye On Baseball will be breaking down the cases of each candidate on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot for 2015. We'll present the pros and cons of each player as they relate to existing Hall of Fame standards and then wager a guess as to whether or not the candidate in question makes it in this time around by earning the necessary 75 percent of votes. Up now is Roger Clemens ...

After a big-league career that spanned parts of 24 seasons, Roger Clemens, based on the numbers, stands as one of the greatest pitchers in the annals of baseball. Of course, there's more to his Hall of Fame case than the numbers, which is why, despite merits too plentiful to chronicle, he's in his third year on the ballot and not even close to passing muster with voters. 

In 1983, the Red Sox made Clemens, a University of Texas product, the 19th overall draft choice. Clemens signed on June 21 of that year, and roughly 11 months later he made his big-league debut. As a 24-year-old in 1986, and en route to his first Cy Young award, Clemens struck out a record 20 Mariners on April 29. Clemens early in his career made hay with a devastating fastball-power curve combo, and years later he'd add a wipeout splitter. The results, obviously, were unsassailable. 

Coming off a disappointing age-33 season in 1996, the Red Sox let Clemens walk. He was, of course, far from done, as he'd rack up another four Cy Youngs during what should have been his deep decline phase. 

First, the overpowering case for induction ... Clemens in those 24 seasons won a record seven Cy Young awards; tallied 354 wins; struck out more than 4,500 batters; fell just shy of 5,000 innings and pitched to a 3.12 ERA (143 ERA+). That's a sprawling sustained level of dominance glimpsed only in the game's inner-sanctum pitchers like Walter Johnson and Lefty Grove.

As for a sampling of his all-time rankings, get comfortable: He's third-all-time in strikeouts, 16th in innings pitched, seventh in games started, 26th in shutouts, 11th in ERA+, third in pitcher WAR, eighth in WAR among pitchers and position players, ninth in wins and 19th in win-loss percentage. The lone twirlers ahead of him on the all-time pitcher WAR list? Cy Young and the aforementioned Walter Johnson. Not bad company, that. 

Based on numbers alone, Clemens is of course an indisputable Hall of Famer. So how to explain these vote percentages in his first two years on the ballot?

2013: 37.6 percent
2014: 35.4 percent

Those are paltry figures for an all-time great like Clemens, to say the least. As we all know, he's been penalized for suspected PED use during his career. Clemens was implicated as a user of HGH and steroids by his former trainer Brian McNamee in the pages of the Mitchell Report, and McNamee's accusations led to Clemens' being put on trial for perjury (pursuant to his testimony before a House committee on PED use in baseball). Clemens was eventually found not guilty on all counts, but the stench of the scandal in tandem with is age-defying career arc was enough to damage him greatly in the eyes of Hall voters.

Absent scandal, Clemens would have been a first-ballot inductee with a vote tally likely north of 97 percent. Things as they are, however, he lost ground in his second year after pulling a paltry percentage in his first year. So there wasn't some kind "not on the first ballot" penalty at work, which is bad news for Clemens' candidacy. Given the new 10-year rule for players on the BBWAA ballot, it's hard to envision Clemens ever getting in, absent some kind of reconstructed image. 

Roger Clemens is one of the greatest hurlers ever to stride to the mound, but it seems unlikely he'll be getting a plaque in Cooperstown, at least for a long, long time.