Jacob deGrom wants to become an 'inner-circle' Hall of Famer; is Mets ace on his way?

deGrom will need to remain one of the best pitchers in the game for a while longer to become a Hall of Fame lock

Jacob deGrom, the right-handed ace of the New York Mets and a two-time Cy Young Award winner, wants to pitch beyond his 40th birthday. Moreover, he needs to if he's going to fulfill his career aspirations."I believe I can still compete at this level at that age," deGrom told ESPN's Jeff Passan. "To become an inner-circle Hall of Famer, I'm gonna have to play that long."

DeGrom, who will turn 33 years old in June, has earned the right to think such lofty thoughts over his first seven-plus seasons in the majors. Coming into his next start, he'll boast a career 2.59 ERA and a 4.83 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 185 outings. DeGrom has made three All-Star Game appearances and has accumulated 37.4 Wins Above Replacement during that time, according to Baseball Reference's calculations. 

Of course, before deGrom obtains inner-circle status, he'll need to align with the average Hall of Fame standards. For as dominant as he's been to date, he's not yet there. 

The Hall of Fame measuring tool JAWS, for instance, has deGrom falling roughly 33 Wins Above Replacement short of the average enshrined pitcher. Even if today's pitchers are judged in a different manner because of the era in which they pitched -- one that allows them fewer innings and thereby fewer chances to amass brilliant counting stats -- and more reliance is placed upon peak rather than longevity, it's fair to think he'll need a few more high-grade seasons before he's assured enshrinement.

Take Johan Santana as an example. Santana himself was a two-time Cy Young Award winner who topped 51 career WAR before he was forced to retire by injuries. Despite all he accomplished -- and his seven-year peak was within five wins of the average Hall of Fame pitcher -- he was a one-and-done participant who failed to crack the five-percent threshold in his only year on the ballot.

Our Matt Snyder argued last May that deGrom's best chance to get in is based on his peak, and that remains the case. To wit, if deGrom wants to get to Justin Verlander's level -- and Verlander, who has accumulated the 18th-most WAR among pitchers since integration, may well qualify as an inner-circle pitcher in today's terms -- he'll need 39 more wins above replacement, or nearly five per from now through his age-40 season. That may be doable, but the warp and woof of being a pitcher is that bodies break, even those previously thought of as being invincible. (Verlander is evidence of that.)

DeGrom, then, has some admirably high goals. It's just worth keeping the greater context in mind so that his career can be celebrated in the likely event that he comes up short of them in the end.