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Robert Hanashiro / USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets look to defend their spot atop the National League East standings when they take on the Philadelphia Phillies in the first game of Friday's doubleheader. On Wednesday, the Mets (38-31) bounced back for a big 7-3 victory against the Atlanta Braves after being held scoreless in the prior two games. The Phillies (34-37) sit five games behind New York, at third-place in the NL East, and a strong showing in this series would go a long way in the standings.

First pitch in this seven-inning matchup at Citi Field in Queens is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. New York is a -121 favorite (risk $121 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Mets vs. Phillies odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total runs scored is six. Before making any Phillies vs. Mets picks, check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every pitch of every game 10,000 times, had a banner 2019 season, the league's last full schedule, returning more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line MLB picks. It's off to a sizzling start in 2021, going 100-74 on top-rated MLB money-line picks through 12 weeks, returning over $1,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on Mets vs. Phillies. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the MLB lines and trends for Phillies vs. Mets:

  • Mets vs. Phillies money line: New York -121, Philadelphia +110
  • Mets vs. Phillies run line: New York -1.5 (+190)
  • Mets vs. Phillies over-under: 6 runs
  • NYM: The Mets are 5-1 in their last six opening games of a double header.
  • PHI: The Phillies have covered the spread just 39 percent of the time as road underdogs.

Why you should back the Mets

The Mets turn to ace Taijuan Walker for the first game of Friday's doubleheader, and no Mets pitcher has been more profitable to bet on than Walker in 2021. The Mets have covered the spread in 66 percent of Walker's starts, and bettors have returned +267 units if they backed New York in each of Walker's outings. This should come as no surprise, given Walker's sparkling 2.42 ERA and 1.05 WHIP; he has built off of his 2.70 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. He has been one of the absolute best pitchers in baseball over the past couple of years.

Walker will go to work against a Phillies lineup that is missing two key pieces in Jean Segura (groin) and Didi Gregorius (elbow), and he could have plenty of run support with New York's powerful lineup set to tee off against the reeling Aaron Nola. Nola's ERA is up to 4.22 after he gave up six runs in just two innings of work in San Francisco his last time out. He will have his hands full against a left-handed heavy New York lineup.

Why you should back the Phillies

While the results have been much better for Walker than Nola, a look at the two pitchers' advanced analytical profile would suggest that there isn't a lot of difference between them. In fact, in many ways, Nola's profile stands out as slightly superior. His strikeout rate is higher than Walker's, and his walk rate is lower. The pitchers have nearly identical ERA predictors (xFIP), with Nola's standing out as slightly better. Nola has induced swinging strikes at a far higher rate while allowing opponent contact at a lower rate. At the end of the day, Walker is the one with a 2.42 ERA to Nola's 4.22 mark, but there are several indicators to suggest that the difference between the two is far less extreme than their respective discrepancy in ERA.

In a game shortened due to the doubleheader, starting pitching is even more important than usual. And if you believe the difference between these two pitchers is not as extreme as their results to this point would show, then placing a bet on the underdog certainly makes some sense. New York's offense has shown plenty of signs of inconsistency lately -- producing zero runs in four of the past nine games -- so this could absolutely be a spot for Philly's underperforming ace to get back to resembling the shutdown pitcher we saw from 2018-2020.

How to make Phillies vs. Mets picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Phillies vs. Mets? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the money line to jump on, all from the advanced model off to a hot start in 2021.