MLB Free Agent Stock Watch: Extension frenzy completely drying up market for elite position players after 2019
Anthony Rendon might be the biggest winner of the Xander Bogaerts extension
By
Mike Axisa
•
5 min read
The regular season is one week old and already the 2019-20 free-agent class looks dramatically different. Nine players -- nine! -- due to become free agents following the 2019 season have signed extensions in recent weeks, including big names like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Chris Sale. Our latest free-agent rankings have already been rendered obsolete by extensions.
Even as the free-agent class thins out on a seemingly daily basis, we here at CBS Sports will keep you appraised of the latest free-agent market developments throughout the season. You'll get weekly stock watch updates, and each month we'll update our 2019 free-agent rankings. Not much has changed in the early going this season, but here anyway are three impending free agents heading in the right direction and one going the other way.
Stock Up
Though his hot start to the season certainly hasn't hurt (.474/.545/.895), Anthony Rendon's free-agent stock has improved largely due to things out of his control. Specifically, the Red Sox signed Xander Bogaerts to a big money seven-year extension, meaning Rendon is set to enter the 2019-20 offseason as the undisputed No. 1 position player free agent. Didi Gregorius and Scooter Gennett, the other top impending free-agent infielders, are currently out with long-term injuries.
Rendon will go into the offseason with tremendous leverage as the only truly elite position player on the market. He's an impact player offensively and defensively, and he no longer has to worry about competing for dollars with Bogaerts the way Manny Machado and Bryce Harper did this past winter. The Nationals let Harper walk this offseason and it seems unlikely they'll let Rendon go without a fight. Any contender looking for a big lineup upgrade -- similar to the Phillies this past winter -- has one place to look. Everything is coming up Rendon right now.
The Astros lost Charlie Morton to free agency and Lance McCullers Jr. to Tommy John surgery, and they seem content to let Dallas Keuchel leave as a free agent as well. For a while there the Astros had Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and three question marks in their rotation. Wade Miley was brought in as a low-cost starter and both Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock were moved from the bullpen back into the rotation to round out the starting five.
McHugh made his first start since 2017 this past week and was very good, holding the Rays to two runs in five innings. He struck out nine and walked one while being held to a pitch limit (81), which is increasingly common around baseball early in the season. For McHugh, there were two positives from his start:
- He reaffirmed he has four pitches. Last season he was largely fastball/curveball with a few sliders in relief. McHugh threw four pitches (fastball, cutter, curve, slider) at least 14 percent of the time in his start this year.
- He held his stuff throughout his start. It wasn't until his pitch count approached 75-80 that his velocity started to dip noticeably. Once McHugh gets stretched all the way out, he should hold his velocity for 90-plus pitches.
McHugh turns 32 in June and free agency hasn't been kind to good-but-not-great veterans the last two offseasons. With good health and an effective 2019 as a starter, McHugh could put himself in line for Lance Lynn money (three years and $30 million), especially since teams know he could always fall back on being a really good short reliever.
Statistically, Mike Moustakas is sporting one of those funky early season stat lines. Low average (.217) but also a high slugging percentage (.565) thanks to two doubles and two homers. Guys go 5 for 23 in the span of a week all the time. Nothing really unusual or noteworthy about Moustakas at the plate so far.
What stands out (and bodes well) for his impending free agency is the transition to second base, a position he never played as a professional prior to spring training. Moustakas may not look the part, but he is a very good athlete, and he's a smart and instinctive player who knows the game well. That's certainly helped him with the transition.
"I think, for me, one of the strengths on defense is my arm. If I can start using that, just catch it, be smooth and use my arm strength to turn it, I think that's going to be key," Moustakas said. "Right now, I'm catching it and peeking at the runner. Not the guy sliding into second, the guy running to first. I think I'm being too quick because I keep peeking at the runner … heading to first, instead of being smooth."
Make no mistake, Moustakas is not Roberto Alomar or Chase Utley at second base with the glove. He's been adequate thus far and he could improve to the point where he's league average or better once he gains more experience at the position. Moving from the third to second isn't easy. Everything seems backwards on the other side of the infield, initially.
If the transition to second base goes well -- the early indications are strong -- Moustakas could go into free agency after the season and market himself as a three-position infielder (everywhere except short) with 20-plus homer pop from the left side. That's a nice little super utility piece. Second base could be the difference between yet another one-year contract or Jed Lowrie/DJ LeMahieu money (two years and $20 million or so).
Stock Down
Matt Kemp doesn't have much going for him right now. He started the season 0 for 11 before picking up a single in his final at-bat Wednesday, and, as a right-handed hitter, he's stuck on the light side of the platoon with Jesse Winker. There's no DH spot in the National League either. Sporadic playing time is no way to build momentum going into free agency. It's not easy being a part-time player after spending your career as an everyday guy.
Of course, an injury could always clear up Cincinnati's outfield logjam, creating playing time for Kemp. For the time being he is on the short end of the playing time stick. Yasiel Puig and Scott Schebler are everyday guys, Winker is a young player who is going to be the priority since he could be a long-term piece for the Reds, and at some point top prospect Nick Senzel could come up and join the outfield mix as well. It's not fair to say Kemp's free-agent stock is way down one week into the season. Things could be going a little better though.
