MLB Rumor Buy or Sell: Phillies listening to trade offers for Jeremy Hellickson?
The Phillies are reportedly listening to offers for Jeremy Hellickson. Are we buying this rumor?
By
Mike Axisa
•
2 min read
Welcome to CBSSports.com's Rumor Buy Or Sell. With the July 31 trade deadline slowly approaching, we'll break down any various trade (free agency) rumors that come your way during the summer months.
The Rumor: The Philadelphia Phillies are letting other teams know they'll listen to trade offers for right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. From Cafardo:
3. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Phillies — Phillies personnel have made it known they'll listen on Hellickson in trade talks. Philadelphia re-signed Hellickson (4-1, 3.49 ERA) with the idea of using him to acquire more prospects before the trading deadline.
The Phillies are, of course, in the middle of a massive rebuild. They've been trading veterans for prospects for a few years now.
The Background: At 14-21, the Phillies sit in third place in the NL East, nine games back of the first place Washington Nationals. They're 5 1/2 games back of the second wild card spot. For what it's worth, FanGraphs put Philadelphia's postseason odds at 0.8 percent given their roster and the current standings.
Hellickson, 30, has a 3.71 ERA in eight starts and 43 2/3 innings this season after pitching to a 3.71 ERA in 32 starts and 189 innings last season. Hooray for consistency. The similarities end at ERA, however. Hellickson's strikeout rate is way down from last year (7.3 K/9 to 3.7 K/9) and his home run rate is way up (1.1 HR/9 to 1.9 HR/9).
Given all the contact he's allowing, there's a good chance Hellickson will not sustain his .218 batting average on balls in play all year. It figures to increase and approach his .271 career average at some point, which means more balls will find holes and more runs will inevitably cross the plate. That 3.71 ERA very well may be a mirage given the lack of strikeouts.
For the Phillies, trading Hellickson before the BABIP correction would be preferable, but teams are not stupid. They know what's coming. Hellickson is a veteran with a long track record. That said, pitching is always in demand, and it only takes one desperate team to jump into the race and blow the Phillies away with a trade offer. They should have no trouble finding suitors.
Keep in mind the Phillies listened to trade offers for Hellickson last year and didn't find anything to their liking, so they kept him and made him the $17.2 million qualifying offer after the season. Hellickson accepted that offer and remained with the team. Because the new collective bargaining agreement says players can not receive the qualifying offer twice, the Phillies could lose Hellickson as a free agent and not receive a compensation draft pick this winter. That's another reason to trade him.
The Verdict: Buy. Buy buy buy. And not only because every team is always willing to listen to trade offers for their players. (It doesn't hurt to listen, after all.) Because there isn't enough upside to keeping Hellickson. Rebuilding teams need pitchers to chew up innings too, sure, but Hellickson's performance is likely to slip going forward, and he's no longer eligible for the qualifying offer.
There's a pretty good chance Hellickson is worth more to the Phillies as a trade chip than as a pitcher on their roster. They got one good year out of him in 2016, and he's started the 2017 season well despite the lack of strikeouts, but chances are he's not a long-term piece for Philadelphia. Hellickson most likely won't be part of the next great Phillies team, and in that case, it makes sense to listen to trade offers and move him at the deadline.
