Nationals release veteran Joe Nathan and it's time to weigh his case for the Hall
Joe Nathan was one of the best closers of his generation. Now his career may be over
With less than a week to go before Opening Day, all 30 clubs will spend the next few days finalizing their rosters and making tough decisions. They all have players they’d like to keep and take north at the end of camp, but there are only so many roster spots to go around.
On Monday, the Washington Nationals started the process of finalizing their Opening Day roster by releasing veteran closer Joe Nathan. He was trying to win a bullpen spot as a non-roster invitee.
Joe Nathan has been told he will not make the Nationals. Team liked his performance, they just didn't have room in the bullpen
— Jamal Collier (@JamalCollier) March 27, 2017
And on that note, the Nats have unconditionally released both Joe Nathan and Matt Albers
— Jamal Collier (@JamalCollier) March 27, 2017
Nathan, 42, allowed five runs in 11 2/3 innings this spring while striking out nine, though his stuff was down noticeably. That’s true of every 42-year-old pitcher, though in Nathan’s case the issue has been exacerbated by his 2015 Tommy John surgery, the second elbow reconstruction of his career.
The Nationals released Nathan on Monday rather than closer to Opening Day for a few reasons. One, they can now move forward and give their final spring training innings to pitchers who will actually make the team. And two, it’s also a courtesy. This gives Nathan a week to find a new team before Opening Day.
It’s unclear whether another team will take a chance on Nathan, who has thrown only 6 2/3 innings total the last two seasons due to the Tommy John surgery, at some point over these next few days. Former tippy top closers have a way of sticking around, and besides, all it takes is one injury between now and Opening Day to create a need.

Given his age though, there’s a very real chance this is the end of the line for Nathan, who was one of the most dominant relievers of his generation. He is eighth all-time with 377 saves and, after converting to relief full-time in 2003, he threw 736 innings with 859 strikeouts and a 2.42 ERA (179 ERA+). During his peak from 2003-13, Nathan ranked second only to the great Mariano Rivera in WAR among relievers.
I don’t think Nathan will be voted into the Hall of Fame, though I am interested to see how much support he receives when the time comes. Consider his career relative to two former closers still on the ballot:
Saves | IP | ERA | ERA+ | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | WAR | |
Trevor Hoffman | 601 | 1,089 1/3 | 2.87 | 141 | 1.06 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 28.0 |
Joe Nathan | 377 | 923 1/3 | 2.87 | 151 | 1.12 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 26.6 |
Billy Wagner | 422 | 903 | 2.31 | 187 | 1.00 | 11.9 | 3.0 | 27.7 |
Keep in mind Nathan’s career numbers are dragged down a bit by his early career stint as a starting pitcher. (Neither Hoffman nor Wagner ever started an MLB game.) Nathan had a 4.70 ERA (91 ERA+) in 183 2/3 innings as a starter with the Giants from 1999-2000 before finding his calling in the bullpen.
Anyway, on a rate basis, Nathan’s career is right there with Hoffman’s, especially when you consider Nathan’s stint as a starter. Wagner was more dominant than both based on his significant advantages in ERA, WHIP, and K/9. Longevity counts though, and Hoffman threw quite a few more innings than both guys. Relievers tend to have short shelf lives.
Saves are kind of a dopey way to evaluate reliever performance but they very clearly carry weight with many Hall of Fame voters. That’s why Hoffman is a safe bet to be voted in next year -- he fell five votes short of induction this year -- while Wagner has received only 10.5 percent and 10.2 percent of the vote in his two years on the ballot. That’s what I expect to happen with Nathan. Enough support to remain on the ballot a few years but not nearly enough for induction.
Either way, Hall of Fame or no Hall of Fame, Nathan was unquestionably one of the best closers of his generation. His bid to make the Nationals this spring failed, and it seems very possible his playing days are over.
















