Phillies eliminated: Rebuild continues, more changes coming; what's next?
The Phillies are the first team to be officially been eliminated from postseason contention in 2015. They continued their rebuilding effort this summer and there are more changes on the way.
By
Mike Axisa
•
4 min read
With Wednesday night's loss to the Braves (ATL 8, PHI 1), the Phillies became the first team to be mathematically eliminated from postseason contention this season. Philadelphia has not been to the postseason since 2011, and their winning percentage over the last four seasons has gradually dropped from .500 to .451 to .451 to .386. Now that they've been eliminated, let's look back at the season that was and look forward to what is ahead for the franchise.
What went right in 2015: Not a whole lot, obviously. Maikel Franco hit 13 home runs in 77 games before suffering a wrist injury, and he looks very much like a middle-of-the-order power hitter going forward. Rule 5 Draft pick Odubel Herrera has quietly had a strong season both at the plate and in the field. Also, the club traded Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon, Ben Revere and Chase Utley for young players in deals that were widely well-received.
What went wrong in 2015: The Phillies failed to unload Ryan Howard despite offering to pay down a substantial portion of his contract. Domonic Brown continued to look more like the disappointing 2014 version of himself rather than the 2013 All-Star version. Veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz has had a miserable season, and none of the team's low-cost veteran starters (Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams, Chad Billingsley) pitched well enough to fetch a prospect at the trade deadline.
Phillies MVP: Since Hamels has been traded away, I'll go with Herrera. The 23-year-old jumped from Double-A to the big leagues after being plucked from the Rangers in the Rule 5 Draft over the winter, and he's hit .300/.339/.431 (110 OPS+) with 26 doubles, eight home runs and 14 steals. The various defensive stats also love his glovework in center. Herrera has been the club's best all-around player from start to finish in 2015.
Phillies LVP: Howard, despite his team-leading 21 homers and 72 RBI. He's hitting .228/.278/.432 (92 OPS+) overall -- the league average first baseman is hitting .262/.338/.454 (119 OPS+) in 2015 -- and remains a huge liability against left-handed pitching (18 OPS+) and in the field. The net result is -1.8 WAR, which ranks 1,178th out of the 1,185 players to appear in at least one game this season.
Pending free agents: Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams, Chad Billingsley, Jeff Francoeur
2016 payroll commitments: The Phllies only have $63.867 million in salary on the books for 2016 right now according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Freddy Galvis, Andres Blanco and Domonic Brown are their most notable arbitration cases, and Brown is a non-tender candidate. The Phillies have not had a payroll under $160 million since 2010, and while they might not sign $100 million in 2016 salary worth of free agents this winter given the early state of their rebuild, they do have a good deal of cash to spend.
Biggest offseason decision: On Thursday, the Phillies finally pulled the trigger and fired GM Ruben Amaro Jr. after weeks, months and years of speculation. The team is in the relatively early stages of a substantial rebuild right now and they do have an impressive farm system with impact talent close to the majors, so their biggest offseason decision will be replacing Amaro. Andy MacPhail was hired to serve as team president, so he is the front office leader, but the new GM will put the plan into action and do the dirty work. Needless to say, selecting a new GM is crucial to the Phillies' rebuild going forward. Bigger than any single player acquisition.
2016 will be better if ... Some of the prospects start arriving and the young guys on the roster continue to blossom, specifically Herrera, Franco, Aaron Nola and Ken Giles. Shortstop J.P. Crawford is baseball's best prospect currently in the minors and should arrive sometime next season. Outfielder Nick Williams, who was part of the Hamels trade, could debut in 2016 as well. Ditto pitchers Ben Lively (Marlon Byrd trade) and Zach Eflin (Jimmy Rollins trade), among others. The Phillies are very unlikely to contend next season, but they will be in better shape should some of the young players take another step forward in their development.
2016 will be worse if ... Those steps forward don't happen. Young players and prospects are wonderful and extremely valuable in today's game, but they also tend to be unpredictable. Crawford or Williams could struggle in their first exposure to big league pitching, for example. That isn't to say they would be busts, it's just an acknowledgement that sometimes there are bumps on the road. Howard, Ruiz and Cliff Lee are still on the roster for another year -- their contracts expire after 2016 -- but they don't figure to have much impact. It's all about the kids from here on out, and that can sometimes be ugly.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: Like I said, the Phillies are not expected to be very good next season, even if their young players perform and they use a bunch of that payroll space to sign veteran free agents. I do believe they will be improved, however, which in this case means losing only 90 games instead of 100 or so. Philadelphia is definitely a few years away from contention.
