Tigers vs. Guardians face off with AL Central, playoff berth on the line: What to know ahead of the series
Detroit is on the verge of a collapse and Cleveland is surging as the two set to square off
By
Mike Axisa
•
6 min read
Perhaps the single most important series of the 2025 regular season will be played this week at Progressive Field, when the Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers for three games. The AL Central title looked like an inevitability for the Tigers not too long ago, but Detroit is in the middle of an epic collapse and the Guardians have surged.
Here are the AL Central standings heading into Tuesday's games:
- Detroit Tigers: 85-71
- Cleveland Guardians: 84-72 (1 GB)
- Kansas City Royals: 78-78 (already eliminated)
- Minnesota Twins: 67-89 (already eliminated)
- Chicago White Sox: 58-98 (already eliminated)
On July 8, the Tigers had a 14-game lead over the second-place Royals and Twins, and the Guardians were in fourth place and 15 ½ games back. If the Guardians do manage to win the division, it would be the biggest comeback in baseball history, surpassing the 1978 New York Yankees. The Yankees erased a 14-game deficit to win the AL East that season.
"We couldn't be more excited to get back home," Guardians manager Stephen Vogt told reporters, including the Associated Press, over the weekend. "The boys are ready. We know what is at stake, and it's going to be a lot of fun this week."
Here are the details for this week's all-important three-game series in Cleveland. Select games can be streamed regionally on fubo (try for free).
| Date | Start time | Starting pitchers | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
Tues., Sept. 23 | 6:40 p.m. ET | LHP Tarik Skubal vs. RHP Gavin Williams | FanDuel Sports Detroit, Guardians TV |
Weds., Sept. 24 | 6:40 p.m. ET | RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Tanner Bibee | FanDuel Sports Detroit, Guardians TV |
Thurs., Sept. 25 | 6:40 p.m. ET | TBA vs. LHP Parker Messick | FanDuel Sports Detroit, Guardians TV |
Each team is throwing their top two starters in the first two games of the series. Messick has been terrific since being called up last month, pitching to a 2.03 ERA with 31 strikeouts and only five walks in six starts. Righty Keider Montero lines up to pitch Thursday for the Tigers, though they have paired him with an opener at times this season, hence the TBA.
Here is everything you need to know going into this week's series at Progressive Field.
How they got here
Last year, the Tigers started poorly and surged late en route to their first postseason berth in a decade. This year, they've done the opposite. They started extremely well, well enough to be in the "best team in baseball" conversation, but they've crashed hard the last few weeks. Detroit peaked at 25 games over .500 on July 8.
- Through July 8: 59-34 with a plus-112 run differential
- Since July 8: 26-37 with a minus-39 run differential
It's been even worse lately. The Tigers have lost six straight games, nine of their last 10 games, and 18 of their last 25 games. They were 10 games up as recently as Sept. 3. That's a nine-game swing in the standings in 19 days. Blame the offense. Detroit has averaged only 2.5 runs scored per game in their last 10 games. The bullpen has been combustible too.
The Guardians were so far out of the race that they traded away Shane Bieber at the deadline. They bottomed out at eight games under .500 on July 6. Here's the before and after:
- Through July 6: 40-48 with a minus-59 run differential
- Since July 6: 44-24 with a plus-50 run differential
Cleveland had won 10 straight games prior to Sunday's loss. They've won 15 of their last 17 games and 20 of their last 26 games. The Guardians do it with run prevention. They have allowed only 65 runs in their last 26 games, or 2.5 per game, and they've done it even with all-world closer Emmanuel Clase on administrative leave amid a league investigation into gambling.
Needless to say, these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Tigers were one of the very best teams in baseball three months into the season, and have been one of the worst since. The Guardians were spinning their wheels early on and have been almost unbeatable over the last four weeks. If you believe in momentum, it is definitely on Cleveland's side.
Cleveland needs one win to clinch the tiebreaker
This will be the fourth and final regular-season series between these two division rivals and the Guardians lead the head-to-head series 6-4. Here's how things have played out between these two teams:
| Dates | Location | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
May 22-25 | Comerica Park | Guardians win 3 of 4 |
July 4-6 | Progressive Field | Tigers sweep 3-0 |
Sept. 16-18 | Comerica Park | Guardians sweep 3-0 |
That sweep in Detroit last week made an AL Central comeback begin to feel possible. It closed the gap in the standings from 5 ½ games to 2 ½ games with the head-to-head series remaining this week. It also moved the Guardians on the brink of clinching the season series, and thus the tiebreaker. One win this series gives Cleveland the tiebreaker.
Since we're here, we might as well lay out all the possible outcomes of this week's series:
| Result | AL Central situation |
|---|---|
Tigers sweep 3-0 | Tigers clinch AL Central |
Tigers win 2 of 3 | Tigers have 2-game lead, Guardians have tiebreaker |
Guardians win 2 of 3 | Tie atop AL Central, Guardians have tiebreaker |
Guardians sweep 3-0 | Guardians have 2-game lead plus the tiebreaker |
MLB and the MLBPA agreed to do away with Game 163 tiebreakers a few years ago. Now all ties are broken mathematically, and if Cleveland wins one game this week, they hold the tiebreaker. Given how close this race is and how few games are remaining in the season, the tiebreaker is essentially like picking up an extra game in the standings.
The Tigers need to sweep the series to clinch the tiebreaker, but if they do, they will win clinch the AL Central outright. The tiebreaker only applies to Cleveland at this point.
It's not just the AL Central that's on the line
It is not guaranteed that the AL Central runner-up will be a wild card team. The AL Central title isn't the only thing on the line this week. It could be a postseason berth period. Here are the AL wild card standings:
- New York Yankees: 88-68 (+4 GB)
- Boston Red Sox: 85-71 (+1 GB)
- Cleveland Guardians: 84-72
---------------------------------------------- - Houston Astros: 84-72
- Texas Rangers: 79-77 (5 GB)
The Guardians won the season series over the Astros and thus have the tiebreaker, so technically they're in and the Astros are out right now. The larger point is a good week by the Astros, who go on the road to play the (Sacramento) Athletics and Los Angeles Angels, could move them into a wild card spot and bump the AL Central runner-up out of the postseason bracket entirely.
The Tigers and Guardians will play each other for the AL Central this week, first and foremost. The secondary battle is staying in a wild card spot as a fallback. These two teams will be scoreboard watching the Astros (and Red Sox) in particular.
What's next for each team
On paper, the remaining schedule favors the Guardians. After the Tigers leave town, they'll host the Rangers this weekend, and it's possible (if not likely) Texas will be eliminated from postseason contention by then and just playing out the string. Any combination of Guardians wins and Rangers losses totaling two eliminates Texas. Chances are the Rangers will have one foot in the batter's box and one foot on the plane for their offseason vacation this weekend.
The Tigers, meanwhile, will head to Boston after leaving Cleveland, and finish the regular season with three games against a Red Sox team that could be playing for their own postseason life. On one hand, that would give the Tigers the opportunity to take matters into their own hands in the wild card race. On the other hand, that doesn't figure to be an easy series. You'd rather play an eliminated team looking forward to the winter than a contender, at least in theory.
Prediction
The Tigers are reeling and the Guardians are cruising, though I do have a hard time betting against Skubal. I'll say the Tigers win Tuesday but lose Wednesday and Thursday, leaving us with a tie atop the AL Central heading into the final weekend. Perhaps that's a wish more than a prediction. A division race going down to the wire would be quality television.
