The sky is falling for the Thunder: Four reasons why OKC has come back to earth after sizzling start
The Thunder were dreaming of a 74-win season after a 24-1 start, but they are 6-6 since
By
Jack Maloney
•
9 min read
The most surprising result of the 2025-26 NBA season happened Monday night when the perpetually rebuilding Charlotte Hornets waltzed into the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and demolished the reigning champion Thunder, 124-97.
After a 24-1 start that had them on pace to challenge the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors for the single-season wins record (73), the Thunder are now 6-6 in their last 12 games. This is the worst stretch of regular season basketball the Thunder have played -- at least by record -- since 2022-23, which was the last time they failed to reach the playoffs.
At a time like this, it's worth recalling a quote from Thunder general manager Sam Presti, who said the following in April of 2023 at his exit interview:
"The sky falls on every NBA team at least two times a year. Over 82 games, you will not play well for 82 games. You may play horrible for weeks, it may be a month. You don't want to have several months, but every team, the teams that are still playing right now, the sky fell on [them] this season, and everybody freaked out."
The 30-7 Thunder still have a four-game lead over the San Antonio Spurs atop the Western Conference and a 2½-game advantage on the Detroit Pistons for the best record in the league, and remain the clear favorite to win the title (+115, per Caesars).
But right now, the sky is falling in Oklahoma City, and everyone is freaking out. Let's take a deep dive into what's gone wrong for the Thunder and examine some of the weaknesses they've shown that could hurt their repeat quest.
1. Not getting the calls
Free throws tend to always the most divisive topic with the Thunder, so let's start there.
There have long been complaints -- not only from fans, but opposing coaches and players -- about how the Thunder are allowed to play defense compared to how teams are allowed to defend the Thunder, specifically Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
"It's so frustrating to play this team because they foul a ton. You know, they really do, they foul, they foul, all the time," Minnesota Timberwolves coach Chris Finch -- perhaps the most vocal critic -- said last February. "And then, you know, you can't really touch Shai. And it's a very frustrating thing, and it takes a lot of mental toughness to try to play through it."
More recently, Finch lost his mind and was ejected minutes into his team's eventual win over the Thunder on Dec. 19 after the refs appeared to miss multiple calls in quick succession. Finch had to be held back multiple times and was eventually fined $35,000 for his reaction.
Have officials have been influenced by Finch's outburst and all the subsequent chatter? Perhaps. There's no doubt that the Thunder have not been getting the same calls they were getting earlier in the season. The numbers make that absolutely clear.
Here's a look at the Thunder's free throw numbers as a team (league ranks in parenthesis):
| Period | FTM | FTA | FT% | FTA Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
First 25 games | 20.6 (11th) | 24.7 (16th) | 83.2% (2nd) | .279 (15th) |
Last 12 games | 17.9 (18th) | 21.5 (23rd) | 83.3% (2nd) | .234 (24th) |
The Thunder are scoring nearly three fewer points at the line per game during this skid. Notably, Gilgeous-Alexander -- the only player on the Thunder averaging more than 3.8 free throws per game for the season -- accounts for almost the entire drop-off.
Here's a look at Gilgeous-Alexander's free throw numbers (league ranks in parenthesis):
| Period | FTM | FTA | FT% | Double-digit FTA Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
First 25 games | 8.8 (2nd) | 9.9 (3rd) | 88.2% | 13 |
Last 12 games | 6.3 (13th) | 6.8 (18th) | 91.5% | 0 |
It's worth noting that Gilgeous-Alexander's drives per game have actually increased during the Thunder's skid. He was averaging 17.5 in their first 25 games (fourth in the league), and is averaging 18.8 in their last 12 games (third in the league). And yet, his free throw attempts are down significantly.
If this trend continues and it's significantly easier for opponents to keep Gilgeous-Alexander off the line, that will be a major blow to the Thunder's offense.
2. Inconsistent supporting cast
For the season, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored (1,191) or assisted (591) on 1,782 of the Thunder's 4,486 points (39.7%). He leads the team in scoring (31.6 points), assists (6.4) and minutes (33.1) per game by a wide margin. Despite widely being praised for their depth, the Thunder's supporting cast is inconsistent on offense and they remain heavily reliant on Gilgeous-Alexander on that side of the ball.
In 1,191 minutes with SGA on the floor, the Thunder have a 122.1 offensive rating; in 605 minutes without him, the Thunder have a 108.8 offensive rating.
The Thunder don't have another 20-point-per-game scorer this season, and the supporting cast lacks on-ball creators aside from Jalen Williams (who hasn't looked like his usual self since his return from offseason wrist surgery). Unless Gilgeous-Alexander is doing it for them, it's hard for the Thunder to create advantages in the halfcourt.
The good news for the Thunder is that Gilgeous-Alexander has been historically reliable in recent years. He hasn't scored fewer than 20 points since Oct. 30, 2024 -- 108 games ago, the second-longest such streak of all-time -- and has failed to reach the 20-point mark just 10 times since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, when he made his first All-NBA First Team.
Since the Thunder became contenders in 2023-24, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at least 30 points in 126 of the 187 games he's played in -- the Thunder are 104-22 when he gets to 30 points -- and has sat out just 14 times. The vast majority of the time, Gilgeous-Alexander shows up and puts the Thunder on his back.
When he doesn't, the Thunder tend to struggle, as we've seen recently. Gilgeous-Alexander had just 21 points on 7-of-21 shooting in their loss to the Hornets on Monday, which was his worst offensive outing of the season. In fact, his three worst showings of the season have all come in the last two weeks:
- Dec. 25, loss to Spurs: 22 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists on 7 of 19 FG (1 of 6 3FG)
- Jan. 5, loss to Suns: 25 points, 0 rebounds, 6 assists on 8 of 22 FG (1 of 5 3FG)
- Jan. 6, loss to Hornets: 21 points, 2 rebounds, 6 assists on 7 of 21 FG (1 of 5 3FG)
While Gilgeous-Alexander is still putting up 29.5 points on 52.2% shooting overall in the last 12 games, he hasn't gotten the help when he's needed it. Aside from Lu Dort and Alex Caruso, every rotation player is averaging fewer points over the last 12 games than they were during the team's 24-1 start.
Here's a look at the supporting cast's scoring numbers:
| Player | PPG in first 25 games | PPG in last 12 games |
|---|---|---|
18.8 | 16.6 | |
Jalen Williams | 17.3 | 17.1 |
14.2 | 13 | |
13.2 | 6.3 | |
12.9 | 5.7 | |
12.2 | 7.4 | |
8.5 | 5.8 | |
Lu Dort | 8.3 | 8.3 |
6 | 4..8 | |
Alex Caruso | 5.5 | 6.8 |
Minutes, roles and injuries have played a part, of course, in some of those changes, but the chart above paints a clear picture. Notably, Williams and Holmgren went from a combined 36.1 points per game to 33.7, and the team went from having six double-digit scorers aside from Gilgeous-Alexander to three.
It's fair to wonder if carrying such a heavy offensive burden while playing almost every single night is starting to wear on Gilgeous-Alexander, even just slightly. And as this recent stretch has shown, the Thunder aren't a dominant force if Gilgeous-Alexander isn't consistently awesome.
Perhaps now is the time for Presti to cash in some of the assets he's hoarded over the years and make a trade to boost the Thunder's offense.
In the meantime, giving Mitchell a bigger role on offense, like he had earlier in the season when Williams was sidelined, could help some of their creation issues. Aside from Williams, he's the one member of the supporting cast who can reliably create anything for himself. For the season, 57.2% of Mitchell's field goals have been unassisted (Gilgeous-Alexander is at 79.7% and Williams is at 62.5%). No one else in the rotation is above 30.6%.
3. Streaky 3-point shooting
The Thunder have not been a high-volume 3-point team throughout their rise, and have lacked truly elite shooters aside from Isaiah Joe -- and he's often been on the fringes of the rotation. In general, they've surrounded Gilgeous-Alexander with capable outside threats who are prone to ice-cold stretches.
When the Thunder were stunned by the Dallas Mavericks in the second round of the 2024 playoffs, they lost in large part because they shot 33.5% from 3-point range in that series. Even en route to the title last season, there were stretches in the playoffs where they could not buy a shot from behind the arc. They were so much better than the Memphis Grizzlies that it didn't matter that they shot 31.3% from 3-point range in that series, but they needed seven games to avoid a major upset in the second round against the Denver Nuggets when they only made 32.3% of their 3s.
This current 12-game skid has been yet another example of the Thunder's streaky outside shooting. Here's a look at the Thunder's 3-point shooting as a team (league ranks in parenthesis):
| Period | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|
First 25 games | 14.2 (8th) | 37.2 (16th) | 38.1% (5th) |
Last 12 games | 12.2 (23rd) | 36.9 (18th) | 33% (24th) |
Gilgeous-Alexander's 3-point shooting has fallen off a cliff, which is a real issue when he's third on the team in attempts per game (4.9 for the season). However, there are issues across the board.
Kenrich Williams, Wiggins, Wallace and Caruso are all shooting at least 8% worse than they were earlier in the season. And while Dort has been slightly better as of late, he has not been able to replicate what he did last season, when he made a career-high 41.2% of his attempts.
| Player | 3P% First 25 games | 3P% Last 12 games |
|---|---|---|
Kenrich Williams | 46.7% | 36.8% |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 45.4% | 32.2% |
Aaron Wiggins | 43.8% | 29% |
Isaiah Joe | 41.9% | 38.6% |
Chet Holmgren | 39.5% | 36.8% |
Cason Wallace | 38.1% | 30.2% |
Alex Caruso | 36% | 22.9% |
Ajay Mitchell | 34.6% | 40% |
Lu Dort | 32.5% | 34.6% |
Jalen Williams | 28.6% | 32.4% |
The good news for the Thunder is that they are creating plenty of open shots. Over the last 12 games, they are third in wide-open (nearest opponent six-plus feet away) 3s per game (24), but are 28th in wide-open 3-point percentage (34.4%). As long as they keep generating open shots, the percentages will swing back around.
However, there has been an abundance of evidence over recent years that the Thunder will continue to have wild swings in shot-making if they do not acquire better shooters. Will Presti make a move at the deadline to try and boost their spacing?
4. Tougher schedule
The Thunder's schedule has been another key factor in their slide.
During their 24-1 start, they played just five games against teams that currently have a record above .500. During their 6-6 stretch, they've played six games against teams that currently have a record above .500 -- four of which have been losses. For the season, the Thunder are 24-2 against teams currently below .500 and 6-5 against teams currently above .500. Notably, three of those losses have come to the Spurs, the No. 2 team in the West.
It's also worth noting that they've played 11 games in 19 days since play resumed after the NBA Cup, and their loss to the Hornets was the second night of a back-to-back and their third game in four days after a West Coast road trip.
On that front, the Thunder have the toughest remaining schedule in the league by a a good margin, with an average opponent winning percentage of .545.
The Thunder remain deserved favorites for the title, and will still likely finish with the best record in the league. However, their march to a repeat no longer seems the foregone conclusion it did this time a month ago.
