2020 NFL Draft QB Stock Watch: Joe Burrow's torrid season continues, Justin Herbert tries to quiet skeptics
Burrow is not only making his case as a top-10 pick, but he could be the first QB drafted in 2020
With Georgia's Jake Fromm and Washington's Jacob Eason on bye weeks, and Tua Tagovailoa recovering from surgery, only four quarterbacks are highlighted here this week. There's still plenty to break down, as LSU's Joe Burrow continues his ascent into not only the top 10 of the draft but the Heisman conversation too. Meanwhile, Oregon's Justin Herbert looks to prove to his skeptics that he also deserves to be among the first quarterbacks drafted, while Utah State's Jordan Love tries to overcome a lack of playmakers. Finally, Jalen Hurts suffers his first loss of the season as Oklahoma's quarterback despite throwing for almost 400 yards.
Joe Burrow, LSU
Another week, another stellar performance from Joe Burrow. A year ago, entering LSU's eighth game of the season, Burrow had thrown just six touchdowns to go with two interceptions. Heading into Saturday's matchup against Auburn, Burrow had 29 touchdowns (he set the Tigers' single-season passing TD mark the week before) and just three interceptions. He managed just one touchdown (that's a season low) against Auburn, and he also tossed his fourth pick of the year, but Burrow was again clinical.
The senior finished 32 of 42 for 321 yards and that 76.2 completion percentage actually brought down his season average to 78.8 percent. His most impressive stretch came early in the 2nd quarter when he led a 10-play, 89-yard drive that ended with a back-of-the-end zone throw to wide receiver Terrace Marshall for a 20-yard score that gave LSU a 7-3 lead.
Touchdown number THIRTY for Joe Burrow gets @LSUfootball on the board. pic.twitter.com/7IOFPPZv9S
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 26, 2019
Burrow has been making throws like this all season, and he made several on the drive leading up to this moment. But this series started with Auburn standout defensive lineman Derrick Brown sacking Burrow. (Heading into the game, LSU had 20 drives that didn't produce points; eight of those drives included Burrow getting sacked.) But the quarterback displayed both toughness and sneaky athleticism two plays later, on third and 12, when he ran for the first down and took a huge lick for his troubles. Burrow popped up and got right back to work.
Despite facing pressure early in the game (he was sacked on each of the first three drives), Burrow stood in the pocket, unfazed, and continued to go through his progressions. His pocket savvy is another underrated aspect of his game, along with this athleticism, and both were on display against Auburn. These are all traits that evaluators at the next level will be excited about. Wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase hauled in three passes on the drive -- including a 19 and 27-yarder on the plays immediately preceding Marshall's touchdown grab.
On the ensuing drive, Burrow again highlights his athleticism, which has been overlooked because of all that he's accomplishing with his arm:
"SWEET FEET JOE BURROW" pic.twitter.com/KyKGUN5MWi
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 26, 2019
In terms of his style of play, Burrow has drawn comparisons to Tom Brady, but as a runner he's much closer to Marcus Mariota. (To be clear: We're not saying he's either but certain parts of his game reminds us of both quarterbacks.)
Most of Burrow's afternoon was spent avoiding pressure and taking the underneath routes Auburn's defense gave him. There was the 10-play touchdown drive we highlighted above, as well as the 45-yard in-the-bucket throw Burrow made to Chase in the third quarter that again reinforced just how well he's played this season.
Burrow has tremendous trust in Chase, and he’s dropping the long ball in the bucket today. pic.twitter.com/I4ZfDCfeEx
— Travis Wingfield (@WingfieldNFL) October 26, 2019
That's an NFL throw every day of the week.
We've been saying more than a month now but Burrow is good at keeping eyes downfield, remaining calm in the pocket while keeping feet moving. Yes, he's sometimes throwing to wide-open receivers but the difference between him and just about everyone else in college football is that he doesn't miss them, either with his reads or his ball placement.
Justin Herbert, Oregon
Justin Herbert remains the most intriguing prospect in the country because of his physical gifts, but questions remain about whether he'll be able to put that all together at the next level when we haven't seen consistent evidence of that at Oregon. Saturday night's game against Washington State provided glimpses of his talents but also reminders of why he's not currently a top-15 pick in our minds.
Herbert's first downfield completion came on the second drive of the game. It's play action, Herbert does a nice job of getting his head around to find Spencer Webb in the middle of the field between three defenders for an 18-yard gain. This is what he has to do more consistently.
🔥justin herbert vs wash st. thread🔥 pic.twitter.com/zClkgiQSAr
— josh houtz (@houtz) October 27, 2019
The majority of Herbert's throws are some variety of screens, and to his credit, he is typically accurate in those situations. But once you get 15-plus-yards down the field, the consistency wanes and he's not in the same conversation with Joe Burrow or Tua Tagovailoa. Granted, he also doesn't have the same receivers, and that's part of what NFL evaluators will have to figure out.
Herbert is at his best when he trusts his O-line, stays in the pocket and goes through his progressions, but he tends to get jumpy if the first read isn't there. Late in the first half, he does a nice job finding his third option; Webb was sitting in a soft spot in zone coverage in the middle of the field, just beyond the sticks on third and 7. That simple throw and catch went for 18 yards.
But on the next play, a naked bootleg to the right, Herbert doesn't hit either of his two options, both of whom were "NFL open." There was a defensive lineman in Herbert's face but it's a relatively easy completion, even if it only goes for 2-3 yards. Instead, Herbert hesitates, tries to buy time with his athleticism and ends up taking an 11-yard sack. That's a 15-yard swing. Herbert follows that up a play later with a short-hop swing pass out of the backfield to the running back.
Looking to get into field goal range later in the first half, Herbert has all day in the pocket and airmails a wide-open Mycah Pittman on a deep crossing route.
big miss here by herbert. pic.twitter.com/wFQ3wUwnlg
— josh houtz (@houtz) October 27, 2019
But it's not all doom and gloom. Facing third and 9 on Oregon's first drive of the second half, Herbert is blitzed and can't step up in the pocket, but still throws a laser to Jaylon Redd for a first down. That's an NFL throw. Later on the drive, facing second and 8, Herbert drives the ball to the sidelines on a perfectly thrown pass to his receiver, but it was ruled incomplete (it would've been good for a first down). To reiterate: There is no doubt he has the physical skills to be an NFL quarterback. The question has always been whether he can do it consistently while making the right decisions.
Undeterred, Herbert throws another laser, this one a timing route to the other side of the field, and his receiver makes the grab inside Washington State's 15-yard line to move the sticks. The Ducks run it in for a touchdown several plays after that to make it 24-17 late in the third quarter. One of Herbert's best throws came midway through the fourth quarter -- an incompletion in the back of the end zone to Pittman on a play we've seen Herbert have success with in the past, usually with tight end Jacob Breeland as his target (Breeland's out for the season with a knee injury). On the next snap, we go from Great Herbert to Frustrating Herbert; with time in the pocket, he missed Webb in the back of the end zone on a bad overthrow and the Ducks had to settle for a field goal to give them a 34-28 lead with 6:29 to go.
elite QBs make this throw. big miss. pic.twitter.com/2fvr4TPi5I
— josh houtz (@houtz) October 27, 2019
Fast forward several series later. With one minute to go and trailing 35-34, Herbert gets to work to get the Ducks into field goal range. He throws a quick screen for five yards. He follows that up with a quick out for seven more yards to get to midfield. A play later, Herbert throws on time and with confidence and finds Juwan Johnson for 15 more yards for another NFL-caliber completion.
nice throw. :34 left. however, oregon’s kicker is cheeks. pic.twitter.com/iJfeWE3gk6
— josh houtz (@houtz) October 27, 2019
Another slip screen, again to Johnson, gets 24 yards and Oregon has the ball at Washington State's 9-yard line to set up the game-winning field goal as time expires.
Save the last drive, Herbert wasn't asked to do a lot in this game -- he finished 21 of 30 for 222 yards, attempted just 10 passes in the first half, and most of his completions all evening were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (he also didn't throw a touchdown for the first time all season). This is partly a function of Oregon's running game having so much success, and partly the overall offensive philosophy. That said, Herbert was 6 of 8 on third downs (he started 6 of 6) and that's noteworthy no matter who you're playing.
Still, NFL evaluators have to try to project how Herbert's skills will not only translate to the next level, but to an offense that will presumably lean more on the passing game. Because no organization is using a top-10 pick on a franchise quarterback to hand the ball off 30 times a game.
Jordan Love, Utah State
Love got off to a strong start to the season, throwing three touchdowns (and three interceptions) against Wake Forest, but it's been a roller coaster ride in the weeks since. He came into Saturday night's game completing just 59 percent of his throws and like Herbert, no one questions Love's physical tools -- he has a rifle for a right arm and the athleticism to make plays with his feet -- it's his decision making that will ultimately determine if he finds his way into the first round.
On a windy evening in Colorado Springs against Air Force, Utah State never really had a chance. Air Force would win the time of possession battle 45:43 to 14:17, would lead 17-0 at the break and cruise to a 31-7 victory. The Aggies would have nine drives, eight of which ended with a punt, and Love would finish 14 of 23 for 114 yards, with a touchdown and no turnovers.
There wasn't a lot to take away from Love's performance, mostly because he spent much of the night on the bench while Air Force's offense racked up yards and points, but we did want to mention two things:
1) Facing 3rd down on Utah State's first series against Air Force, Love throws late to the far sideline, as he's done several times this season. Lucky for him, the pass wasn't intercepted, as it has been several times this season, but it was broken up by the Air Force cornerback. Love has to get out of this habit, which has plagued him over the first seven games.
2) You have to go back to Sept. 2017 to find the last time Utah State was held scoreless in the first half. That changed on the first drive of the 3rd quarter, which ended with a beautiful 27-yard touch pass down the sidelines from Love to Siaosi Mariner:
Utah State's on the board! Jordan Love with a DIME to Siaosi Mariner for the 27 yard TD! Helluva catch too! pic.twitter.com/k2wDYBkz6X
— I'M SEEING GHOSTS (@FTBeard11) October 27, 2019
Worth noting: like Herbert, Love doesn't have the stable of pass catchers that Burrow, Tagovailoa and even Jalen Hurts enjoy. In fact, it feels like Love is plagued by more drops than those three quarterbacks combined and that will have to be part of the evaluation in the coming months.
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
This Oklahoma offense is an embarrassment of riches, starting with Hurts but a close second has to be all the talented pass catchers, along with a solid group of running backs.
For some perspective through seven games consider this: Hurts has a higher completion percentage (74.7), total yards (2,779) and total touchdowns (30) than Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, the back-to-back Heisman Trophy winners and No. 1 overall picks. Right on cue, Hurts gets things going on the first snap of the game. With plenty of time in the pocket he finds Charleston Rambo on a deep throw downfield that we've seen with some regularity this season:
Hurts ➡️ Rambo on the first play of the game.#OUDNA | #BoomerSooner pic.twitter.com/fhd4pv9uxX
— Sooner Gridiron (@soonergridiron) October 26, 2019
Then, midway through the first quarter, Hurts drags most of the Kansas St. defense into the end zone on a 10-yard run -- and he did it again a few minutes later:
Jalen Hurts with two rush TD ... in the first quarter 🏃 pic.twitter.com/b02hxJ0QNe
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 26, 2019
Then there's CeeDee Lamb, who is making a strong case as the best receiver in college football. He doesn't look it, but pound for pound he's one of the strongest pass-catchers in college football too:
What a play by Jalen Hurts!
— Abdul Memon (@abdulamemon) October 26, 2019
He’s able to recover the bad snap, move around in the pocket, and hit CeeDee Lamb for a big gain! pic.twitter.com/H7cdgnSCjT
Don't overlook Hurts picking up the errant snap, getting his head downfield, and finding Lamb who does the rest. Hurts turned to Lamb again early in the 4th quarter with the Sooners trailing by 25 points. The wideout takes a screen pass 70 yards, and in the process torches (and re-torches) the Kansas State defense:
CeeDee Lamb ends Oklahoma's scoring drought. pic.twitter.com/yz35QEM14i
— ESPN (@espn) October 26, 2019
This was so incredibly fun to watch, but it wasn't enough for Oklahoma. The Sooners were plagued by turnovers all afternoon though Hurts didn't throw an interception or lose a fumble. And while his 5.3 yards per carry were his lowest of the season, Hurts was responsible for three rushing touchdowns, and another passing touchdown -- and he combined for 489 total yards (395 passing, 96 rushing).
Hurts' stock continues to rise. He isn't yet a Day 1 pick for us but he's banging on the door, and his strong leadership skills are only helping his cause.
















