2023 NFL Mock Draft: Bijan Robinson lands in the perfect spot, plus more Fantasy Football fallout
Five QBs in the top-15? DeAndre Hopkins traded? Dave Richard's mock has some curveballs
By
Dave Richard
•
1 min read
The 2023 NFL Draft is now just hours away. You're about to read through a mock draft that has been thoroughly researched. How players fit into teams' systems and which players visited where were checked out and considered again and again. Future roster issues and salary-cap crunches were also looked into. Team tendencies and needs were also front-of-mine for many of these picks.
And it's not going to matter.
Some teams have extensive player personnel departments that utilize data and marry that information with coaches' film to make a sound, reasonable decision on Draft Day. Other teams rely on less. Occasionally, a team will follow a directive from their team owner ("GET ME A QUARTERBACK OR YOU'RE FIRED!"). We'd be naïve to think we know all the factors that go into the process for choosing a player. Any picks made in this or any mock are for naught.
Understand that this mock draft is based on what I think each team will do, not what I would do if I were the GM, or what I've read in the constant stream of draft gossip over the last two weeks. And, since you're probably a Fantasy Football-loving individual like myself, I've pitched in some analysis for each offensive skill-position player I mocked.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
The Panthers moved up to No. 1 overall knowing other fundamental parts of their roster (offensive line, pass rush, secondary) weren't in bad shape. Young has been preparing to be a professional quarterback since he was a child and has the pedigree of high school championships, a college championship and individual accolades including a Heisman Trophy. I would expect him to get taken as about the 20th quarterback off the board in redraft formats. In rookie-only drafts he'll be a top-5 pick in Superflex/two-QB formats and a top-12 pick in one-QB.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
DeMeco Ryans has been outspoken about building up both offensive and defensive lines as well as finding a young quarterback. He and the Texans have a mighty tough to-do list to finish, but their options for a potential elite-tier pass rusher are slim if they don't take one at No. 2. Anderson is the most NFL-ready rusher available and is basically the Bryce Young of defensive players: pedigreed and successful. And, they've met with him a ton; nearly all of the Texans' high-profile 2022 picks visited with the team before the draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
The Cardinals might think hard about taking Jalen Carter to improve their defensive front, but I was reminded that first-year coaches and GMs tend to not take unnecessary risks. As for moving down, trades involving top-5 picks the week of the draft are exceptionally rare (none since the 2019 draft) and I don't think there's a slam-dunk player a team would trade up for that the Cardinals themselves wouldn't take. Wilson, 23 when the season starts, is a massive pass rusher with long arms, lots of power and good speed. They need a guy like that desperately for the long term.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
New Colts coach Shane Steichen helped Jalen Hurts improve as a passer over the last two years, but even he would probably admit he'd prefer to navigate an offense with a quarterback that already has excellent mechanics, footwork, etc. Stroud is NFL-ready and can be molded into an offense that already has established parts at receiver, running back and along the offensive line. He's in the same boat as Young in Fantasy -- around the 20th QB off the board in redraft, a top-5 pick in Superflex/two-QB leagues and a top-12 pick in one-QB. However, because his division in this scenario is a little softer on defense than Young's, I would prefer him.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
Pete Carroll addressed the defensive line recently, saying there's still "work to do." This helps in a major way. Carter is a tone-setter, an absolute havoc-wreaker at the line of scrimmage with a rare blend of power and speed. Pairing him with Darrell Taylor and Uchenna Nwosu, at least for this year (both are free-agents-to-be) should at least be intriguing. There are maturity issues with Carter, but those can be addressed, as can his play-to-play functionality.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
This was a tough call between a quarterback and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. My hunch is that the Lions see themselves as contenders who won't pick this high again anytime soon. Franchises tend to try solving their quarterback issues first and foremost, so that's my forecast here, particularly given Jared Goff's contract situation. Richardson would give the Lions, potentially, an unreal playmaker to go with several other such studs in their formidable offense. And they have the assistant coaches to help harness his athleticism while training him to be more efficient. Richardson might not get picked in redraft leagues but has 1.01 potential in Superflex/two-QB rookie-only drafts and top-10 potential in one-QB versions. If you can afford to be patient then I'd recommend Richardson over all of the 2023 QB prospects if he ends up in Detroit.
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Mock Trade from
Las Vegas Raiders
Round 1 - Pick 7
Mock trade: *(Houston trades 12, 65 and 161 to Las Vegas for 7)* I don't believe the hype that Houston wants Levis at No. 2 overall, mostly because I don't think they have to reach that high for a 24-year-old with some footwork issues. What they can do, though, is trade up to get him. His short-area passing and mobility, not to be confused with rushing ability, does make him a good candidate for this offense. The Texans have had multiple visits with Levis including a private workout, so they should know him well. Levis would probably get passed over in re-draft -- call him the 25th or so QB off the board -- but makes the cut as a top-8 pick in Superflex/two-QB and top-20 in rookie-only Dynasty formats.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
General manager Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith haven't shied away from taking elite-level offensive talent in the first round of drafts before, so why stop now? Robinson is the next great NFL rusher who can handle a lot of work and tally for north of 1,500 total yards and 15 touchdowns. Atlanta's strong O-line helps plenty. Besides, the Falcons have quietly put together a good defense this offseason. In Atlanta, Robinson would immediately vault into the top-18 overall picks in 2023 redraft leagues as a top-12 RB. He'll be a cinch as the 1.01 in one-QB rookie-only drafts almost regardless of where he lands, and still a top-5 choice in Superflex/two-QB rookie-only drafts.
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From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 9
As bad as the Bears pass rush is, they absolutely have to protect Justin Fields and fortify the O-line. Technically, Johnson would be the second former teammate of Fields to join him, so there's some familiarity, but the reality is that Johnson is a big, strong tackle who thrived in Ohio State's zone-run scheme. It's just about the same fit with the Bears -- they did more power running in 2022 but Johnson has the strength and movement skills to adapt.
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Mock Trade from
Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 - Pick 10
Mock Trade: *(Las Vegas gives pick 12 and 100 to Philadelphia for pick 10)* The Raiders have to do something about their secondary, particularly given the AFC West quarterbacks they'll face twice each. Only slot corner Nate Hobbs flashed last year among their cover guys. Gonzalez is the best cornerback in the draft and should give Las Vegas some needed defensive flexibility. And, in their moves from 7 to 12 to 10, they netted a better third-round pick and an extra fifth, all the while getting the same guy they wanted at seventh.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Mike Vrabel's crew needs help everywhere, and I wouldn't rule them out from trading down (only six picks in the draft), but their offensive line needs help the most. Skoronski is the smart, fleet-footed, NFL-ready lineman they need with the versatility to either settle in at guard or tackle.
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Mock Trade from
Houston Texans
Round 1 - Pick 12
The leanest, but fastest, pass rusher in the draft. Smith's stats aren't going to make you excited but his potential will. Philly's looking for their version of Micah Parsons, particularly with several members of their pass rush aging and/or seeing expiring contracts within the next two seasons.
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Mock Trade from
New York Jets
Round 1 - Pick 13
Maybe the Packers never took a receiver in Round 1 because they felt like Aaron Rodgers could elevate receivers taken in other rounds. They can't possibly feel the same way with Jordan Love under center. Instead, they can take a sneaky-quick separator with excellent hands to develop into Love's most reliable target. Smith-Njigba clearly has upside to be more than a slot guy, too.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Isn't it just like the Patriots to have a good player fall into their lap? Witherspoon's physical style fits it just fine with the Patriots, who play a lot of man coverage and ask their corners to be tough. He could start at outside corner right away and stay there for years.
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Mock Trade from
New York Jets
Round 1 - Pick 15
Mock trade: *(Seattle gives picks 20, 83 and 154 to New York for pick 15)* I can't help but think that Seattle sees Hooker's big arm, clean mechanics and smooth mobility and fall in love. They can spend this year letting Hooker rehab his knee while Geno Smith starts, then the two can flip places in 2024. And the Seahawks won't care much about his age -- Russell Wilson turned 24 during his rookie season. That worked out. Hooker is unlikely to get picked in re-draft no matter which team selects him, but he would be a tempting reach in Dynasty leagues provided his long-term outlook was attached to at least one star receiver. That would be the case if he were in Seattle, which is why I'd be cool with him as a top-8 pick in Superflex/two-QB rookie-only drafts and a top-15 pick in one-QB versions.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Defensive ends Chase Young (probably), Montez Sweat and Efe Obada are all in contract years for Washington. Murphy protects the team at this important position in case they move on from most/all of them. And as it turns out, Murphy might have just as much upside as the two pass rushers taken before him thanks to his power-plus moves to create pressure
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Round 1 - Pick 17
With multiple huddles with Jones this spring, the Steelers probably figured out that he's their best bet to serve as their long-term answer at left tackle. Jones doesn't have a ton of experience (just two years as a starter) and needs some help with his technique, but he's got the agility and mean streak to flatten defenders in the run game and slow down pass rushers.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Porter grew up around the NFL and knows how to carry himself, which I think the Lions will value. But better than that, he's a physical cornerback with good speed who can play man coverage. The Lions ask their cornerbacks to do plenty of that and he could either fit right in Week 1 or sit for a little bit behind Emmanuel Moseley before getting on the field in an every-down role.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Tough break for the Bucs seeing Hooker go one spot in front of them. However, offensive tackle is a big need for the Buccaneers, who could have bookend tackles for the long haul with Wright and Tristan Wirfs. They can figure out who plays left tackle later (probably Wirfs to start), but it's a big plus for their quarterback of the future, whomever that may be.
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Mock Trade from
Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 - Pick 20
Pass rush might not be high on the list of the Jets' needs, but Van Ness has exceptional power and a big frame that can be molded into any defense. It's his pass rush tool kit that needs attention, something near and dear to head coach Robert Saleh. Veteran defensive end Carl Lawson is entering the final year of his deal, so Van Ness could serve in sub-packages under him this year before starting next year.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
There are some injury concerns with Bresee -- just what the Chargers' fans love to read in the first sentence -- but the upside is terrific. He's very good against the run, he can play anywhere on the D-line, and he can get after the quarterback. After the run-stopping woes and pass-rush injuries the Chargers dealt with last year it makes sense for them to invest in their front-seven with a high-motor player like this.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor are on one-year deals. Rashod Bateman has two years left on his contract, assuming the Ravens keep him for that long. The Ravens have been sniffing around receivers all spring, including Flowers, who provides explosiveness and great route-running. He can help now without being leaned on too much before developing into their No. 1 receiver. Flowers has potential as soon as this season to help Fantasy managers -- he'd be draft worthy in Round 8 if he were with the Chargers -- but his real contributions would come after his rookie campaign when he'd evolve into L.A.'s No. 1 receiver. That's why he'd be a potential top-5 pick in one-QB Dynasty rookie-only drafts and a top-10 pick in Superflex/two-QB rookie-only formats.
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 23
Mock trade: *(Dallas gives picks 26 and 90 to Minnesota for picks 23 and 119)* The Cowboys have learned to focus on quality in Round 1 over need. In this case, they get both. Mayer is a very good all-around player who gives Dallas the kind of tight end they missed out on when the Eagles swiped Dallas Goedert. He's an easy replacement for Dalton Schultz in the pass game and a plus-blocker in the run game. Might he become the Cowboys' second-best target-getter in 2023? That's unlikely, which is why he'd be no better than a late-round flier in redraft. But Mayer would have a shot to be a stat contributor in his second season and beyond. Dynasty managers should consider him with a late Round 1 pick in one-QB rookie-only drafts and with an early second-rounder in Superflex/two-QB versions.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Outside of Tyson Campbell, there's a chance none of Jacksonville's meaningful cornerbacks are even on the roster in 2024. They had to re-stock and would do so here with great value. Banks can play man or zone coverage and has good size to play along the outside, but might work in the slot during his rookie campaign.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Branch gives the Giants some much-needed versatility on defense, roaming as either a slot corner or a box safety. He will help across the board including against the run. Plus he'll play next to Xavier McKinney, another versatile ex-Alabama defensive back.
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Mock Trade from
Dallas Cowboys
Round 1 - Pick 26
The Vikings need a lot of help, and there will be temptation to trade down one more time, but Ojulari is a fast edge rusher who can pay off dividends this year and beyond. That latter part is very important -- Danielle Hunter, Za'Darius Smith and Marcus Davenport are all on the older side and all three might be off the Vikings roster by 2024.
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Mock Trade from
Buffalo Bills
Round 1 - Pick 27
Mock trade: *(Arizona trades 34 and DeAndre Hopkins to Buffalo for 27 and 59)* The Cardinals pick up a big man with long arms who can move well. He has two years of experience at left tackle with the Sooners and shouldn't have that steep of a learning curve in his move to Arizona's offense. Buffalo would obviously expand its receiving corps, hurting Hopkins' target potential in the process. He'd be a quality No. 2 WR if he landed with the Bills.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Forbes is lean, but man is he a ballhawk. Fourteen interceptions with six returned for touchdowns over three seasons thanks in part to his sub-4.4 speed. The Bengals try getting ahead of Chidobe Awuzie's upcoming free agent status (after this year) by stockpiling another cornerback.
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From
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 29
Adebawore has traits the Saints seem to chase: Strength, speed, size. Otherwise, he's pretty raw. Cam Jordan could be off this roster by 2024 and they'll need depth, which Adebawore can provide at minimum. With some coaching, he could become pretty special.
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Mock Trade from
Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 - Pick 30
Mock trade: *(Carolina gives 39 and 93 to Philadelphia for 30 and 248)* Coming into the draft Carolina's receiving corps had some depth, but no star power. Addison gives them that star power -- a fast, shifty receiver who plays bigger than he actually is. Addison dominated two seasons ago at Pitt (helping make Kenny Pickett look good) and did a nice job at Southern Cal last year (helping future first-rounder Caleb Williams look good). Now he'll pair up with Bryce Young for the foreseeable future as a line-up-anywhere go-to target. In this situation I could see myself reaching for Addison on the hope he winds up as Carolina's top target-getter in 2023. That would be worth close to a mid-round pick. Addison will most likely be a top-7 pick in one-QB rookie-only Dynasty drafts and a top-12 pick in two-QB rookie-only drafts regardless of which team he's on.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
No doubt, Kancey is undersized but he is incredibly quick off the snap to either attack the quarterback or -- at minimum -- make a running back pause. At first blush this doesn't feel like a need for the Chiefs, but with Chris Jones entering a contract year, Andy Reid's crew picks up some youth and potential long-term help.
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