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The NFC South has been one of the weakest divisions in the NFL of late, as at least three of the four teams finished with records under .500 four times in the last seven seasons—including last year. All four clubs were sub-.500 in 2022.

This bodes well for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are seeking their fifth consecutive division title. Tampa Bay, which posted a 10-7 record in 2024, currently is tied with the New Orleans Saints for the most NFC South crowns with seven. The Carolina Panthers have finished first five times, while the Atlanta Falcons have accomplished the feat on four occasions.

With Baker Mayfield coming off a career season in which he was third in the NFL with 4,500 passing yards and second with 41 touchdown tosses, the Buccaneers are favored to again finish atop the division. They are +115 favorites to win the NFC South, ahead of Atlanta (+240), Carolina (+450) and New Orleans (+1000).

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, already has crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has projections on each team's win total and chances to win the division, the NFC and the Super Bowl. And based on the odds being offered at sportsbooks, there is value to be had.

NFC South division futures and model projections

TeamModel div sim%Implied model oddsBest market odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers72.8%-268+115 (FanDuel)
New Orleans Saints18.2%+449+1000 (DraftKings)
Atlanta Falcons7.6%+1216+240 (DraftKings)
Carolina Panthers1.4%+7043+450 (BetMGM)

The SportsLine Projection Model believes the Buccaneers will continue their rule of the NFC South and would consider anything better than -268 odds a value play. Most of the sportsbooks have Tampa Bay over that price, with the best (+115) being at FanDuel. That implied probability at +115 is 46.5%, which is well below the model's simulation of 72.8%, meaning the Buccaneers are good value at that number according to the model.

Even though the model is high on Tampa Bay, it does see value with New Orleans. According to the model, the Saints are +449 to win the NFC South. All of the sportsbooks have New Orleans well over that price, with the best (+1000) being at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers futures

  • Win total model projection: 10.3
  • Best market win total odds: Over 9.5 (+115, Caesars)
  • Model sim% to make playoffs: 80.8% (-421)
  • Best market odds to make playoffs: -140 (FanDuel)
  • Model sim% to win NFC: 6.7% (+1400)
  • Best market odds to win NFC: +1800 (Caesars, BetMGM)
  • Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 3.2% (+3000)
  • Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +4000 (Caesars)

The model is high on the Buccaneers this season, which means there's value to be found. 

Perhaps the best value, according to the model, is +4000 to win the Super Bowl, which can be found at Caesars. The model sees anything above +3000 as a positive play. Also, Caesars and BetMGM have Tampa Bay at +1800 to win the NFC, while the model thinks that +1400 is fair. While -140 on the Buccaneers to make the playoffs is value based on the model's projection of 80.8%, a bettor still has to wager $140 to win $100 and lock up that money for months to do so.

New Orleans Saints futures

  • Win total model projection: 8.2
  • Best market win total odds: Over 6.5 (+135, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)
  • Model sim% to make playoffs: 32.7% (+206)
  • Best market odds to make playoffs: +500 (DraftKings)
  • Model sim% to win NFC: 0.9% (+11000)
  • Best market odds to win NFC: +13000 (DraftKings)
  • Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0.3% (+31000)
  • Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +25000 (DraftKings, BetMGM)

Even though they were last in the NFC South last season and are unsure of Derek Carr's status for 2025, there is value with the Saints. The model believes anything above +449 to win the division is a positive play, and all of the sportsbooks have New Orleans at higher odds, with +1000 at DraftKings being the best value. There is value at the sportsbooks on New Orleans to make the playoffs as well, with the best also being at DraftKings (+500). The model has the Saints at +206. In addition, value on New Orleans winning the NFC can be found at DraftKings (+13000) considering the model has the Saints capturing the conference title 0.9% of the time, which equates to +11000 odds.

Atlanta Falcons futures

  • Win total model projection: 7.1
  • Best market win total odds: Under 7.5 (+120, FanDuel, BetMGM)
  • Model sim% to make playoffs: 14.8% (+576)
  • Best market odds to make playoffs: +155 (DraftKings)
  • Model sim% to win NFC: 3.2% (+3000)
  • Best market odds to win NFC: +4000 (DraftKings)
  • Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 1.6% (+6000)
  • Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +8000 (DraftKings, BetMGM)

With Michael Penix Jr. expected to be the team's starting quarterback this season, there is some value on the Falcons available. According to the model, the best value is +8000 to win the Super Bowl, which can be found at both DraftKings and BetMGM. The model sees anything above +6000 as a positive play. DraftKings also has Atlanta at +4000 to win the NFC, while the model thinks that +3000 is fair. However, there is no value on the Falcons to make the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers futures

  • Win total model projection: 5.2
  • Best market win total odds: Under 6.5 (+115, Caesars, FanDuel)
  • Model sim% to make playoffs: 2.6% (+3746)
  • Best market odds to make playoffs: +270 (BetMGM)
  • Model sim% to win NFC: 2.1% (+4700)
  • Best market odds to win NFC: +8000 (BetMGM)
  • Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0.9% (+11000)
  • Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +17500 (Caesars)

Much like the Falcons, there is some value on the Panthers in what figures to be a very important season for quarterback Bryce Young, who was selected first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft but has yet to live up to expectations. Perhaps the best value, according to the model, is +17500 to win the Super Bowl, which can be found at Caesars. The model sees anything above +11000 as a positive play. Meanwhile, BetMGM has Carolina at +8000 to win the NFC, while the model feels that +4700 is fair. But there is no value on the Panthers winning the NFC South or making the playoffs.