AFC North playoff race, scenarios, odds: Why Steelers have major edge on Ravens with four weeks to go
Pittsburgh leads Baltimore by a game and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker
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3 min read
Mike Tomlin had plenty of reasons to blow a kiss to the CBS camera after the Steelers' 27-22 win over the Ravens on Sunday.
The win came one week after he heard "Fire Tomlin" chants during a 23-6 home loss to the Bills. He spent the week addressing his future, hearing reports and speculation about his future and even hearing his former Super Bowl-winning quarterback suggest, "Maybe it's time to clean house."
The win came despite the Steelers being outgained by more than 100 yards.
But most importantly, the win took the Steelers from seemingly on the brink to in the driver's seat in the AFC North with four weeks to play. Tomlin has famously -- or infamously -- never had a losing record, and games like this one are why. The Steelers are 7-6, the win having stopped a two-game losing streak.
"Awesome team win," Tomlin said. "I'm just appreciative of the effort of the men in that locker room. It's classic Steelers vs. Ravens. ... [I] appreciate the efforts. Big win for us, obviously, in a hostile environment, and we'll keep moving."
Mike Tomlin 😅 pic.twitter.com/Lz7NQVvJev
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 7, 2025
They certainly will keep it moving; they have no other choice. The Steelers lead the Ravens by one game and, crucially, have the head-to-head tiebreaker. They also know all too well how quickly things can slip the other way. Last year, the Steelers blew a two-game AFC North lead with four weeks to go.
As we turn our attention to Week 15, the stage only gets brighter and the road to January, for many teams, officially begins now.
Can they avoid a similar fate this year?
Ravens lose to Steelers in controversial finish, but have no one to blame but themselves as season nears brink
Zachary Pereles
Current AFC North standings, odds projections
Here's how the Steelers and Ravens measure up in the AFC North, plus the top two tiebreakers if the teams end up with the same record.
| W-L | Tiebreaker 1: Head-to-head | Tiebreaker 2: Division W-L | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Steelers | 7-6 | 1-0 | 3-1 |
| 2. Ravens | 6-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 |
With advantages in all three categories, Pittsburgh has a 73% chance to win the AFC North according to SportsLine projections, and the Ravens have a 24% chance. (The 4-9 Bengals have a 3% chance.)
Furthermore, the Steelers are -185 to make the playoffs at DraftKings Sportsbook (+150 to miss); the Ravens are +185 to make the playoffs (-230 to miss). Those may seem like surprising numbers given it's only a one-game lead for Pittsburgh and there's still a head-to-head meeting remaining, but another reason for Pittsburgh's significant advantage is ...
Remaining schedule for Steelers, Ravens
Pittsburgh faces a significantly easier schedule to finish.
| Remaining schedule with opponent W-L | Steelers | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
Week 15 | vs. Dolphins (6-7) | at Bengals (4-9) |
Week 16 | at Lions (8-5) | vs. Patriots (11-2) |
Week 17 | at Browns (3-10) | at Packers (9-3-1) |
Week 18 | vs. Ravens (6-7) | at Steelers (7-6) |
The Ravens have the sixth-toughest schedule remaining (.606 opponent win percentage); the Steelers have the seventh-easiest (.442 opponent win percentage).
Bet Steelers and Ravens games at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonus bets if their first bet of at least $5 wins.
How can the Ravens win the AFC North?
Not all is lost yet for Baltimore, as 24% is not nothing. Here are the ways Baltimore can still win the AFC North:
- Win out.
- Beat Bengals, Steelers and one of Packers or Patriots; Steelers lose one of three other remaining games.
- Beat Bengals and Steelers, lose to Packers and Patriots; Steelers lose two of three other remaining games.
- Lose to Bengals, beat Packers, Patriots, Steelers; Steelers lose out.
- Beat Bengals, Packers, Patriots; Steelers lose next three games. (In this case, the Ravens would clinch the AFC North even before playing the Steelers in Week 18.)
- Lose to Bengals and one of Patriots/Packers, beat Steelers; Steelers lose two of three other remaining games; Bengals lose at least one more game.
- Beat Steelers and lose other three games; Steelers lose out; Bengals lose at least two more games.
Needless to say, the Ravens are big Dolphins fans this weekend, followed by the Lions in Week 16 and the Browns in Week 17.
Can either team claim a wild card bid?
The short answer is it's extremely unlikely. The AFC Wild Card race currently features four teams with at least eight wins, meaning the Steelers' or Ravens' best chance, by far, is by winning the division.
| AFC wild card standings | W-L |
|---|---|
5. Bills | 9-4 |
6. Chargers | 8-4 |
7. Texans | 8-5 |
8. Colts | 8-5 |
9. Ravens | 6-7 |
10. Chiefs | 6-7 |
11. Dolphins | 6-7 |
SportsLine gives the Steelers a 0.5% chance to make the playoffs without winning its division and gives the Ravens no chance to make the playoffs without winning the division.
