Agent's Take: Comparing 2004 draft-class greats Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger
Here's a look at the past and what the future might hold for three QBs who are forever linked
Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger are inextricably linked because of the 2004 NFL draft. Manning (selected first overall), Rivers (fourth) and Roethlisberger (11th) have all lived up to the billing of their first-round status.
The 2004 first round is modern-day gold standard for quarterback stability. All three have spent their entire 15-year NFL careers playing for one team. The chart below summarizes the quarterbacks' respective accomplishments and statistics.
| Eli Manning | Philip Rivers | Ben Roethlisberger | |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | |||
Age | 37 | 36 | 36 |
Games | 226 | 205 | 210 |
Completions | 4,675 | 4,382 | 4,435 |
Pass attempts | 7,760 | 6,807 | 6,909 |
Completion % | 60.2% | 64.4% | 64.2% |
Passing yards | 54,478 | 53,208 | 54,267 |
Yards per attempt | 7.02 | 7.82 | 7.85 |
Touchdowns | 352 | 365 | 352 |
Interceptions | 234 | 172 | 184 |
Passer rating | 84.1 | 95.6 | 94.2 |
Record as starter | 114-110 | 113-89 | 142-65-1 |
Pro Bowls* | 2 | 6 | 6 |
Playoff appearances | 6 | 5 | 10 |
Playoff record | 8-4 | 4-5 | 13-8 |
Super Bowl record | 2-0 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
Super Bowl MVPs | 2 | 0 | 0 |
* Pro Bowls are for original ballot only
Each signed second lucrative veteran contract extensions in 2015, adding four new years which expire after the 2019 season. Roethlisberger ($21.85 million per year), Manning ($21M) and Rivers ($20,812,500) were the third-, fourth- and fifth-highest-paid players by average yearly salary when the 2015 regular season began. Manning and Rivers were tied for the most overall guarantees in an NFL contract with $65 million.
Manning leads in career earnings from NFL player contracts with $214.02 million, according to NFLPA data. Rivers is next with $199.2 million. Roethlisberger has made $189,702,382. These amounts are through the 2018 season and do not include collectively bargained amounts for playoff money or participating in offseason workouts, which is nominal.
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None of their teams seem to have an obvious successor for when the quarterbacks' illustrious careers end. Rivers is backed up by Geno Smith, a 2013 second-round pick by the Jets who didn't pan out. The Giants and Steelers have taken quarterbacks in the last two drafts.
Davis Webb, a third-round pick in 2017, was inactive for 15 of 16 games with the Giants as a rookie, but he didn't survive the Giants' preseason roster cutdown. Webb was recently elevated to the Jets' 53-man roster from their practice squad. The Giants opted for running back Saquon Barkley, who is a leading candidate for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, instead of Manning's replacement with the second-overall pick in a quarterback-heavy 2018 draft. Four quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield-Browns; Sam Darnold-Jets; Josh Allen-Bills; Josh Rosen-Cardinals) were selected in top 10 for the first time since 1949. Kyle Lauletta, a fourth-round pick by the Giants in 2018, is best known thus far for an arrest during a late October traffic incident.
Steelers 2017 fourth-round pick Josh Dobbs was rumored to be on the roster bubble after a third-round pick was used on Mason Rudolph this year. Dobbs, who was inactive for 15 games during his rookie year just like Webb, was kept in favor of six-year veteran Landry Jones as Pittsburgh's No. 2 quarterback. He has three career pass attempts.
Manning's future
Manning's situation is a lot more tenuous than Rivers' or Roethlisberger's. His benching seemed inevitable when the Giants had a 1-7 record heading into their bye and were struggling to score points. Head coach Pat Shurmur was noncommittal about Manning remaining in the lineup after the bye before Lauletta's arrest. Lauletta's troubles may have given Manning a reprieve, at least temporarily.
Manning has responded by playing his best football of the season during the last two games. He engineered a last-minute game-winning touchdown drive against the 49ers in Week 10. The 38 points put up against the Buccaneers on Sunday are the most for the Giants since scoring 49 versus the Saints in early November 2015. The current two-game winning streak is the Giants' first one in 700 days, dating back to December 2016. The Giants can't yet be counted out of the title chase of a weak NFC East despite a 3-7 record, although that wouldn't be the case in any other division. Getting an extended look at Lauletta at some point to determine whether he could be the quarterback of the future seems likely if and when the Giants are eliminated from playoff contention, regardless of how Manning is playing.
Watch the Giants take on the Eagles on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on Fox (stream on fuboTV, try for free).
Manning continuing his reversal of fortune could make deciding whether to part ways with him next year more difficult. It was a foregone conclusion that Manning wouldn't complete his contract in New York at the halfway mark of the season. A potential long-term solution at quarterback may not be in 2019's first round. The same caliber of prospect as the 2018 quartet won't be available with the 2019 quarterback class. This includes Oregon's Justin Herbert, should he declare for the draft.
Complicating matters is Manning can't be dealt to another team in the offseason without his permission because he has a no-trade clause in his contract. The Jaguars, who are discovering that Blake Bortles isn't the answer at quarterback after a surprising playoff run to the AFC Championship game last season, have been mentioned most frequently as a potential destination for Manning. Tom Coughlin, who was Manning's head coach in New York for his first twelve NFL seasons, is Jacksonville's executive vice president of football operations. Manning has been unwilling to waive the provision so far.
A resolution should come quickly. His $17 million 2019 salary includes a $5 million fifth-day-of-the-league-year roster bonus due next March 17. It wouldn't be a shock if Manning retired rather continue his career with a new team. $17 million of cap room would be gained without Manning on the Giants' roster in 2019.
Roethlisberger's future
Roethlisberger had hinted at retirement in previous offseasons, much like Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre did in his latter years with the Packers. He quickly announced he was returning for 2018 after the Steelers were upset by the Jaguars last season in the AFC divisional playoffs. Roethlisberger took it a step further shortly after Rudolph was drafted when he proclaimed he planned on playing another three to five years.
Roethlisberger's play this season hasn't given the Steelers any reason to think otherwise. He is fourth in the NFL with 3,202 passing yards. Roethlisberger's 23 touchdown passes are tied for the league's fifth most, and he is on pace for career highs of 5,123 passing yards and 37 touchdown passes.
Watch the Steelers take on the Broncos on Sunday at 4:25 p.m ET on CBS (stream on CBS All Access or fuboTV, try it for free).
Roethlisberger suggested he was more concerned about winning more Super Bowls than a record-breaking contract during the offseason. He indicated that the contracts of other core players also needed to be addressed. One such player may not be running back Le'Veon Bell, who is sitting out the season rather than play under a $14.544 million franchise tag.
The Steelers have yet to let Roethlisberger play out a contract. Roethlisberger's rookie deal was extended in 2008 with two years remaining. He was entering his contract year when he signed his last extension.
Roethlisberger may have an opportunity to put his money where his mouth is in 2019 by following in Drew Brees' footsteps. There's a good chance Brees could have become the NFL's first $30 million-per-year player on a short-term deal had he not given the Saints a financial break for the first time in numerous contract dealings with the franchise. The 39 year old took a two-year, $50 million contract with $27 million fully guaranteed to remain in New Orleans after refusing to exploit his leverage by exploring options with other teams. Some, if not all, of the cash and salary-cap room saved by Bell's decision could be devoted to a new Roethlisberger deal.
Roethlisberger's previous contracts made him the league's second-highest-paid player when signed. The $33.5 million-per-year extension Aaron Rodgers received from the Packers in the preseason is the current standard. Should Roethlisberger decide to pay lip service to the idea of leaving money on the table, an extension averaging approximately $33.25 million per year would put him in the same place in the quarterback-salary hierarchy relative to where he was upon signing in 2015. At the time, Rodgers was the NFL's highest-paid player at $22 million per year.
Rivers' future
Rivers, who turns 37 in December, is a little more of a wild card than his counterparts. Although Rivers expressed no desire to play well into his 40s as Brees and Tom Brady have suggested when speaking to the MMQB's Albert Breer during training camp, he would like to still be the Chargers' quarterback when the new Los Angeles stadium opens for the 2020 season. Rivers also acknowledged that he may not play beyond his current contract. He plans on coaching high school football when he retires.
Rivers is on track to join Brees and Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks in NFL history with at least 10 seasons of 4,000 passing yards or more. He currently has a career-best 112.1 passing rating. The only thing that has eluded Rivers in his career is a Super Bowl ring. The quest for one could be the motivation for him to keep going. Barring a late-season meltdown, the 7-3 Chargers should earn their first playoff berth since the 2013 season.
Watch the Chargers take on the Cardinals on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET on Fox (stream on fuboTV, try for free).
A Brees approach may make sense for Rivers and the Chargers. Brees signed a one-year extension for $24.25 million at the beginning of the 2016 season. The Chargers might not be opposed to adding fake or dummy years, like the Saints did with Brees' 2016 extension, for salary-cap purposes. Rivers has restructured his contract twice to create cap room since signing in 2015. A voiding date after the franchise-player designation period ends in early March 2021 or a clause preventing the designation altogether, as Brees had, could be a different story.
The 2019 salary cap is expected to be in the $190 million range with the annual growth from recent years continuing. Adjusting Rivers' current $20,812,500 average to the next year's expected cap environment would mean a one-year extension in the $27.5 million neighborhood.
Hall of Fame prospects
Roethlisberger, who was the 2004 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, is the closest thing to a sure-fire Hall of Famer out of the three. He may even get enshrined on the first ballot.
Manning may not be too far behind Roethlisberger despite the least regular-season consistency. He has led the NFL in interceptions on three different occasions, including a career-high 27 in 2013. Roethlisberger's 23 interceptions were the NFL's most in 2006. Rivers has never thrown more than 21 in a season. Manning elevating his play on the biggest stage will carry significant weight with the Hall of Fame selection committee. He led teams that denied Brady, arguably the greatest quarterback to ever play the game, championships twice. His 2007 Giants kept those Patriots from a perfect 19-0 season in Super Bowl XLII. Every multiple Super Bowl MVP winner that is eligible for enshrinement is already in the Hall of Fame.
A lack of postseason hardware could give Rivers a longer wait than Manning. A Super Bowl ring would remove any doubt for Rivers. He recently joined Manning as one of four quarterbacks in NFL history with at least 200 consecutive starts. Fortunately for Rivers, every quarterback who has thrown for over 55,000 yards who can be considered for the Hall of Fame has been elected. Rivers should hit the mark early next season.
