Agent's Take: Deciphering Russell Wilson's contract deadline, including what happens if it's not met
Wilson wants a new deal by April 15; let's take a look at his reasoning and how it could all play out
A new contract for quarterback Russell Wilson has been on the Seahawks' to-do list ever since they were eliminated from last season's playoffs in January by the Cowboys. Wilson is in the final year of the four-year, $87.6 million contract extension he signed at the start of training camp in July 2015. He is scheduled to make $17 million in his contract year.
Time is of the essence. Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times revealed last week that the Seahawks were given April 15 as a deadline for a new contract. Wilson intends to cease negotiations if a new deal isn't finalized by this date, which coincides with the beginning of Seattle's voluntary offseason workout program.
Wilson putting a clock on negotiations was a surprising development to the public, but not internally. The Seahawks were reportedly informed of Wilson's timing for a new contract shortly after their offseason began.
Contract negotiation deadlines
This isn't the first time Wilson has set a deadline in his contract negotiations with the Seahawks. Wilson planned on playing out his rookie contract in 2015 if a new deal wasn't in place for the start of training camp.
Players dictating the timing of negotiations isn't the norm in the NFL. It can be effective with the right player. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr was going to break off contract talks in 2017 and play out his rookie contract once training camp started. He became the NFL's first $25-million-per-year player five weeks ahead of his self-imposed deadline.
I wasn't afraid to use a deadline during my time representing players. We started negotiating an extension for wide receiver Jimmy Smith with the Jaguars in 1998, right around the start of the NCAA Tournament that March. It didn't take long to reach an impasse after making some headway on a new deal. Since Smith wanted a quick resolution where his contract status would be settled, we told the Jaguars he would play out his contract so he could test the open market the following year if the deal wasn't done before the 1998 NFL Draft started. I remember confirming our plans for current CBS Sports colleague Pete Prisco, who was covering the Jaguars for the Florida Times-Union, when he called after speaking to Smith about the pace of negotiations. Smith signed an extension with about 10 days to spare.
Reason for Wilson's deadline
Wilson giving the Seahawks an early deadline prevents another protracted negotiation. The negotiation process took several months in 2015, which can become frustrating for a player.
Another rationale for the deadline is the quarterback market is well defined from Wilson's standpoint. Mark Rodgers, Wilson's agent, isn't going to consider potential extensions for Jared Goff, Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz, who are still playing under rookie contracts, relevant to his client's situation unless breaking new ground contractually. That seems unlikely. The Steelers are interested in signing Ben Roethlisberger, who is also in a contract year, to a new deal. Rodgers can distinguish Roethlisberger's circumstances from Wilson's. Roethlisberger is a 37-year-old, 15-year NFL veteran approaching the twilight of his career, while Wilson, 30, is in his prime.
Contract logistics and Wilson's value
The Seahawks and Rodgers reportedly haven't made much progress on a new deal. That doesn't necessarily mean an agreement won't be reached by the April 15 deadline. Player contracts at the highest level can be negotiated in a compressed timeframe when the parties are sufficiently motivated. For example, edge rusher Khalil Mack's deal with the Bears making him the NFL's highest-paid non-quarterback essentially came together in 24 hour period as it was done in conjunction with his trade from Raiders last Labor Day weekend.
Any long-term deal Wilson signs should make him the NFL's highest-paid player, which is currently Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at $33.5 million per year. Rodgers signed a four-year, $134 million extension worth a maximum of $138 million through salary escalators and incentives last preseason. The deal has $98.2 million in guarantees, of which $78.7 million was fully guaranteed at signing. Rodgers received an NFL-record $57.5 million signing bonus.
Wilson arguably had his best season in 2018 operating the NFL's most run-oriented offense. The Seahawks exceeded expectations by earning a playoff berth as a wild card after a massive offseason roster overhaul. Wilson set career highs with 35 touchdown passes (tied for third in the NFL) and a 110.9 passer rating (third) although his 427 pass attempts were his fewest since 2013. He threw only seven interceptions, which tied his career low.
The Seahawks made Wilson the league's second highest paid player at $21.9 million per year when his current contract was signed, despite the Legion of Boom defense being the strength of the team. Wilson has demonstrated he can shoulder the offensive load for extended periods of time since signing his extension notwithstanding the run-oriented approach last season. He began showing dramatic improvement as a pocket passer in 2015 while carrying Seattle's offense for stretches. Wilson had an unprecedented five-game run from Week 11 to Week 15 during the 2015 season where he threw 19 touchdown passes without an interception while completing 74.3 percent of his passes for a 143.6 pass rating.
Contract sticking points
Contract structure may be a bigger sticking point than compensation in Wilson's negotiations. Most of the NFL's biggest player contracts have the first two years fully guaranteed at signing. A small group of teams, such as the Bengals, 49ers, Packers, Steelers and Vikings, typically don't adhere to this practice. The Packers made an exception with Rodgers. The Vikings also deviated from their contract conventions in 2018 to sign quarterback Kirk Cousins to the NFL's first lucrative fully-guaranteed veteran contract during free agency for $84 million over three years. Cousins' deal is worth up to $90 million with incentives.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, who sets the NFL standard for guaranteed money, takes it a step further with his $30-million-per-year contract. The first three years of Ryan's deal and a small portion of his fourth-year salary are fully guaranteed at signing. Ryan has $100 million of overall guarantees where $94.5 million was fully guaranteed when he signed his deal.
Seattle prefers lucrative veteran contracts signed to be structured where the guaranteed money consists of base salary guarantees and a signing bonus. Base salary guarantees after the first contract year are for injury only initially at signing but typically become fully guaranteed either on the fifth day of the waiver period in each specific year or five days after the start of the waiver period. The waiver period always begins the day after the Super Bowl.
The second contract year was fully guaranteed at signing in several deals negotiated prior to 2013. The Seahawks moved away from this concept with wide receiver Percy Harvin's contract in 2013. The extensions cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas signed in 2014 were structured like Harvin's. Wilson's current contract has this structure.
Teams not only must adhere to the salary cap but also have cash budgets that are set internally. Structuring Wilson's deal in a manner consistent with the other high-end quarterback contracts may not fit within Seattle's budgetary constraints partially because of archaic funding requirements. The NFL's Collective Bargaining Agreement requires that a team must place into an escrow account the amount of any guarantees in a contract other than those just for injury, including ones in future contract years.
Teams also try to avoid deviating from well established contract practices or precedents. My experience as an agent was that getting a team to reverse a contract trend or a policy regarding contracts was extremely difficult. Teams routinely cited their concern about setting a new precedent that others would attempt to use against them in future negotiations. It always seemed a little disingenuous because teams should be able to distinguish the circumstances of different negotiations.
Alternative proposal concept
I would be inclined to give Seattle two alternative proposals, which I occasionally did as agent when warranted, if representing Wilson where they would be encouraged to decide on a specific path to reach an agreement. One option would allow Seattle to pick up substantial 2019 cap room by structuring a contract with guarantees comparable to the other top quarterback deals. At a minimum, the first two years would be fully guaranteed at signing. If the third year wasn't fully guaranteed at signing, these guarantees would vest a year early. In other words, Wilson's 2021 contract year would become fully guaranteed at the beginning of the 2020 waiver period. Any fourth-year guarantee in 2022 would vest either in 2020 or 2021.
Seattle's other choice would attempt to accomplish the same thing through a signing bonus that would make it practically impossible to release Wilson during the early years of the deal because of the adverse cap consequences. The practice of guaranteeing only the first year at signing would be preserved but Wilson's 2019 cap number would remain at $25,286,766. Assuming another four-year extension, Wilson's 2019 base salary could drop from $17 million to $1 million. He would receive an $80 million signing bonus, which is nearly 40 percent greater than Rodgers' league record $57.5 million one. Wilson's bonus would get prorated on the cap at $16 million annually for his 2019 through 2023 contract years. There wouldn't necessarily need to be any guarantees after the first year because of the enormity of the signing bonus.
Either option would probably force Seattle to revise the cash budget. Money would be going into escrow regardless because Wilson's signing bonus surely would be paid in installments with deferrals into the next calendar year (2020), which is a standard NFL practice.
What if the deadline isn't met
Wilson has already stated that he is comfortable playing out his contract if necessary. He has also indicated that he won't be a holdout. Seattle's recent history in contract disputes suggests that a holdout isn't the best tactic to get a new contract. Safety Kam Chancellor held out 54 days in 2015 before returning to the Seahawks without any changes to his contract. Ownership didn't intervene to end Chancellor's dispute. General manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll's refusal to give into Chancellor's demands had ownership's backing. Safety Earl Thomas ended last year's holdout a few days before the 2018 regular season started because his "pay me or trade me" ultimatum to the Seahawks fell on deaf ears.
Wilson has a lot more leverage than he did in 2015. At the time, Wilson had made just under $2.2 million from his playing contract. This dynamic was going to make it extremely difficult for Wilson to reject an offer putting him near the top of the NFL pay scale as long as the structure wasn't too team friendly. Wilson has made just over an additional $72 million from his current contract. This financial security gives Wilson the latitude to play hardball in negotiations.
Seattle should be concerned with Wilson deciding to play the franchise tag game if his deadline passes without a new contract. Most quarterbacks receive the exclusive designation as opposed to non-exclusive one. Wilson would probably get an exclusive franchise tag in 2020, which would prohibit him from soliciting an offer sheet from other NFL teams. The calculation is different from the non-exclusive version. An exclusive designation for Wilson would be the average of the top five 2020 quarterback salaries (usually cap numbers) when the restricted free agent signing period ended, which would be about a week before the 2020 draft. This number currently projects to $31.211 million. A second franchise tag in 2021 at a 20 percent increase over Wilson's 2020 franchise number would be slightly under $37.5 million. A third franchise tag in 2022 with a 44 percent increase over the 2021 figure would be pretty steep. It would be almost $54 million.
Embracing the franchise tag could become appealing to Wilson. He would earn a little more than $68.5 million over the two years before likely becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2022, when he is 33, which would make him a year younger than Rodgers when he signed his current contract. Since good, healthy quarterbacks who should still have several highly productive years still ahead of them almost never hit the open market, Wilson could practically name his price by going this route. By that time, 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes should have a new contract in place that conceivably could be in excess of $40 million per year.
The goal appears to be for Wilson to remain in Seattle for the foreseeable future. If the franchise tag game becomes a viable course of action for Wilson or signability becomes a major issue, Seattle would be smart to explore trading Wilson at some point before all that is gotten in return is a third-round compensatory pick for losing him via free agency, presumably in 2022. The trade value of any non-quarterback in the NFL shouldn't be more than the trade value for a quarterback of Wilson's caliber. The Mack trade centered around the Bears giving up their next two first-round picks for him.















