Agent's Take: What new Rams corner Jalen Ramsey must consider before agreeing to a massive extension
Ramsey has leverage based on the high cost to acquire him, and here's what resetting the CB market means
Jalen Ramsey finally got his wish last week. The Jaguars dealt the disgruntled cornerback to the Rams for a 2020 first-round pick, a 2021 first-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick. The two-time Pro Bowler had missed the previous three Jaguars games primarily because of a back ailment.
Ramsey is under contract through the 2020 season. The Rams assume responsibility for 11 weeks of Ramsey's 2019 base salary, which is $2,351,559. The 2016 fifth overall pick is scheduled to make $13.703 million next year on his fifth-year option.
It's usually more cost effective to negotiate a new deal when trading for a high-caliber player nearing the end of his contract. Negotiation leverage shifts in favor of the player because teams don't make a habit of giving up significant assets for a potential short-term rental.
Rams general manager Les Snead revealed in a Sirius XM NFL Radio interview last week he had a brief but productive conversation with Ramsey's representatives about a long-term deal prior to the trade. Ramsey's agent is Athletes First's David Mulugheta. Snead also mentioned to the media that there wasn't a specific timeline for a Ramsey deal. Interestingly, Ramsey, who has established himself as arguably the game's best young cornerback, reportedly pledged that he wouldn't be a holdout in 2020 if he didn't get a new contract.
Ramsey hasn't been shy about his financial expectations. He reported to Jaguars training camp in an armored bank truck. Ramsey had previously tweeted about costing so much that he would have to be put on layaway.
The David Mulugheta factor
Mulugheta knows a thing or two about high-priced defensive backs, as he almost single-handedly reshaped the safety market in free agency.
He made Landon Collins the NFL's highest-paid safety with a six-year, $84 million contract from the Redskins. The Collins deal also established new benchmarks in guarantees for safeties, as Collins has $44.5 million of guarantees where $37 million was fully guaranteed at signing.
Mulugheta also got five-time All-Pro safety Earl Thomas a four-year, $55 million deal containing $32 million fully guaranteed with the Ravens.
Another Mulugheta client subsequently eclipsed Collins' $14 million average yearly salary. Kevin Byard received a five-year, $70.5 million contract extension from the Titans at the start of training camp.
Cornerback market stagnation
The cornerback market on the other hand has remained stagnant for quite some time. When Mulugheta made Thomas the league's first $10 million per year safety with the Seahawks in 2014 by getting him a four-year, $40 million extension, cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman signed extensions with the Cardinals and Seahawks respectively in the $14 million per year neighborhood shortly thereafter.
Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard replaced Josh Norman as the NFL's highest-paid defensive back during the offseason with a five-year extension averaging $15.05 million per year. Howard's deal barely moved the needle for cornerbacks. It is less than a one-half percent increase over the five-year, $75 million contract Norman signed with the Redskins in 2016. Norman is still the position's standard bearer in the most important contract metrics, with a cornerback-best $50 million in overall guarantees, $36.5 million fully guaranteed at signing and a $51 million three-year cash flow.
The stagnation didn't start in 2014. It's been going on for a decade. The top of the market has grown a little over 5 percent since Nnamdi Asomugha signed a two-year deal with the Raiders in 2009 averaging $14.296 million per year. The highest-paid safety at that time was Adrian Wilson (Cardinals) at $7,937,500 per year. To be fair, Asomugha's deal was a market anomaly. His next contract, which he signed with the Eagles as a free agent in 2011, averaged a cornerback-best $12 million per year. It also set the cornerback market.
Where Ramsey should take the CB market
The top of the cornerback market is clearly long overdue for a reset. One thing Mulugheta could look at is how cornerback salaries haven't kept pace with the growth in the salary cap in recent years. The salary cap has gone up 41.5 percent since Peterson and Sherman did their deals in 2014. Howard's deal is almost 7.5 percent more than Peterson's average yearly salary.
Adjusting contracts into the existing salary cap climate is something I started doing to determine an asking price for Hall of Fame defensive tackle John Randle when he was a transition player in 1998. It occurred to me that the top defensive player contracts didn't reflect the growth in the salary cap from $41.454 million in 1997 to $52.388 million, which was a direct result of new TV contracts.
Bruce Smith was the NFL's highest-paid defensive player with the five-year extension averaging $5.2 million per year he signed with the Bills in 1997. I adjusted his contract to reflect the 26.4 percent salary cap growth from 1997 to 1998. His adjusted deal of almost $6.575 million became the guide for setting Randle's target price. Randle replaced Smith as the league's monetary benchmark for defensive players on a five-year, $32.5 million contract containing $20 million in guarantees to remain with the Vikings as salaries exploded thanks to the new TV money.
Randle's actual contract under a $52.388 million salary cap in 1998 equates to just over $23.55 million per year with a little under $72 million of guarantees in today's $188.2 million salary cap environment. When I was representing players, I found that teams might not totality accept this kind of approach but wouldn't dismiss outright it either.
The chart below contains the top of the cornerback market after adjusting for salary cap inflation.
| Patrick Peterson | Josh Norman | Xavier Rhodes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Cardinals | Redskins | Vikings |
| Year Signed | 2014 | 2016 | 2017 |
| Salary Cap | $133M | $155.27M | $167M |
| Growth Factor | 41.50% | 21.21% | 12.69% |
| New $ Average | $14.01M | $15M | $14.02M |
| Adj. New $ Avg. | $19,824,677 | $18,181,233 | $15,799,784 |
| Contract Length | 5 Years (Ext.) | 5 Years | 5 Years (Ext.) |
Another approach Mulugheta could take is trying to restore the historical financial balance between cornerback and safety salaries. This could be done by examining the economic relationship between the cornerback and safety non-exclusive franchise tags over the past five years. Franchise tags are an accepted measure for high-end salaries positionally. The chart below highlights the differences in the respective numbers.
| Year | CB Franchise Tag | S Franchise Tag | % Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $13.075M | $9.618M | 35.94% |
| 2016 | $13.952M | $10.806M | 29.11% |
| 2017 | $14.212M | $10.896M | 30.43% |
| 2018 | $14.975M | $11.287M | 32.67% |
| 2019 | $16.022M | $11.15M | 43.70% |
| Total | $72.236M | $53.757M | 34.38% |
There is a disconnect between the franchise tags and the developments in the marketplace. The safety number dropped slightly from 2018, while cornerback is currently seeing its biggest increase during the last five years. The 34.38 percent difference between the cornerback and safety franchise tags when applied to Byard's $14.1 million per average yearly salary indicates the top of cornerback market should be just under $18.95 million.
The other methodology is more favorable to Ramsey. Peterson's adjusted average yearly salary is approaching $20 million per year. Splitting the difference between the two ways suggests it wouldn't be unreasonable for Ramsey to look for $19.5 million per year to get a deal done before the season ends.
Feasibility of drastically resetting the CB market
Ramsey getting a substantial increase over the current cornerback market while under contract may seem like an outlandish proposition at first blush. A $19.5 million per year extension would be almost 30 percent more than Howard's contract average. It may not necessarily be the case when considering the Rams' treatment of reigning two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald and 2017 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley in resetting their respective positional markets.
Donald became the NFL's first $20 million per year non-quarterback at the end of the preseason last year on a six-year, $135 million extension. His $22.5 million per year average salary was just over 31.5 percent more than Eagles defensive tackle Fletcher Cox's 2016 six-year extension averaging $17.1 million per year, which was the standard for interior defensive linemen at that time.
The four-year, $57.5 million extension Gurley signed right before the start of training camp in 2018 was a game changer for running backs. At $14.375 million per year, Gurley's deal represented an almost 75 percent increase over the previous benchmark, which was Devonta Freeman's five-year extension with the Falcons in 2017 averaging $8.25 million per year. In all fairness, the running back market had been steadily declining since Adrian Peterson signed a six-year extension with the Vikings in 2011 averaging $14,213,333 per year.
Ramsey's contract structure
Any new Ramsey contract will likely raise the bar for cornerbacks in most, if not all, important contract metrics by a wide margin. If he gets a contract from the Rams, it will probably have an extremely player-friendly structure based on the Donald and Gurley deals.
Donald's $86.892 million of overall guarantees are almost 25 percent more than Broncos linebacker Von Miller's $70 million, which was the previous non-quarterback standard. $40 million of the guarantees were in the signing bonus. Donald tied then Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco for the fourth biggest signing bonus ever when his contract was done. $77 million of the guarantees don't have offsets.
A player receives his salary from the team that releases him in addition to the full salary from his new contract with another club when there isn't an offset (also known as "double dipping"). An offset clause allows a team to reduce the guaranteed money owed to the player if released by the amount of his new deal with another team. Between the lack of offsets and the large signing bonus, the Rams are committed to Donald at least through the 2021 season.
Donald's deal is also front-loaded. He has $80 million in the first three new contract years (through 2021) for a $26,666,667 per year average. Almost 60 percent of Donald's new money is in the first three new years. By contrast, Miller had approximately 53 percent of his money in the first three years. Miller was designated as a franchise player after playing out his rookie contract while Donald was in a contract year and facing a franchise tag once his deal expired.
Gurley's deal established new standards for running backs in practically all key contract metrics. His $45 million in overall guarantees were the most ever in a running back contract until Ezekiel Elliott signed a six-year, $90 million extension right before this season started to end his holdout. The previous record was Adrian Peterson's $36 million in his 2011 extension. Gurley's $21 million signing bonus is still the largest ever for a running back. The $22 million fully guaranteed at signing eclipsed Peterson's veteran running back contract record of $20.25 million but was subsequently broken by David Johnson with $24,682,500 in the three-year, $39 million extension he received from the Cardinals as the start of the 2018 regular season approached. A majority of Gurley's guarantees don't have offsets either.
Gurley's $40 million three-year cash flow (through 2020), which remains the benchmark for running backs, is more than he would have made by finishing his rookie deal and playing on franchise tags in 2020 and 2021. Gurley's 2020 franchise tag would have been $11.556 million, a 20 percent increase over his 2019 option year salary. A second franchise tag at another 20 percent increase would have put him at $13,867,200 in 2021. Gurley would have made slightly under $37.375 million this way over the four-year period, which is about $2.625 million less than his actual three-year total (2018 through 2020).
What if Ramsey's contract expires without a new deal?
Generally, the longer a team waits to sign a Pro Bowl caliber player who remains healthy, the more costly it becomes. Anything Ramsey would accept now or during the offseason will only increase over time. A new Collective Bargaining Agreement and new NFL media rights deals could create more favorable financial conditions to Ramsey with him waiting for a new deal.
The Rams could be in a position to recoup a significant portion of the draft capital used to obtain Ramsey by designating him as a franchise player in 2021. The compensation for signing a non-exclusive franchise player to an offer sheet that isn't matched is two first-round picks. The last franchise player to move to another team for full compensation was wide receiver Joey Galloway in 2000 when he went from the Seahawks to the Cowboys. It's probably just a matter of time before it happens again since the draft choices necessary to acquire a supremely talented player in his prime (Khalil Mack, Ramsey, Laremy Tunsil) are beginning to be worth more than the franchise player compensation.















