trevor-lawrence.jpg
Imagn Images

Perhaps the most compelling matchup of NFL Super Wild Card Weekend -- at least the one generating the most polarizing opinions -- sees the Buffalo Bills visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville.

The Bills (12-5), who are the No. 6 seed in the AFC, delivered a solid if uneven season that fell a bit short of most preseason expectations. They had the highest over/under team win total in the NFL future odds at 12.5 and fell one victory shy of clipping that lofty number. They were also the Super Bowl betting favorite with odds of around +600 but enter the postseason as the No. 6 favorite among the 14 playoff teams with odds of +1000 at DraftKings.

Conversely, the Jaguars (13-4) turned in a stunning season in their first year under coach Liam Coen, capturing the AFC South title and the imagination of football fans who love to root for the trendy underdog. Jacksonville, the No. 3 seed in the AFC, crushed its over/under win total of 7.5 and enters the postseason as arguably the hottest team in the NFL behind an eight-game winning streak that followed a 1-3 midseason stretch. The Jaguars currently have Super Bowl odds of +1300 at DraftKings.

The Bills are 1-point favorites and the over/under for total points scored is 52 in the latest DraftKings NFL odds for Buffalo vs. Jacksonville in the NFL Wild Card Round.

Here is a look at the Bills vs. Jaguars matchup from a betting perspective: 

Bills vs. Jaguars odds

  • Opening spread: Bills -1
  • Opening money line: Bills -115, Jaguars-105
  • Opening total: 51.5 

Bills betting profile

  • Opening win total: 12.5 wins  
  • W/L record: 12-5
  • ATS record: 8-9 
  • O/U record: 9-8 

The Bills' 8-9 ATS record suggests they were at least somewhat overvalued in the betting market, though a couple of trends stand out. For one, they have been historically reliable ATS against inferior opponents but failed to cover the spread in home victories over the Dolphins, Saints and Bengals. However, reigning MVP Josh Allen and friends stepped up at times against quality opponents and notched wins and covers against persistent nemesis Kansas City and notched a remarkable 21-point comeback for a 35-31 victory in their rematch against the New England Patriots. The primary argument for Bills supporters lies in their faith in Allen, who has shown he is capable of carrying the team despite limited offensive weapons and a vulnerable defense. With rival Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs out of the picture for the first time in Allen's career, the path is clear for the Bills to make a long-coveted Super Bowl appearance. 

Jaguars betting profile

  • Opening win total: 7.5 wins  
  • W/L record: 13-4
  • ATS record: 11-5-1 
  • O/U record: 8-9 

The Jaguars were expected to take a step forward amid the hiring of Coen, a first-time head coach who gained a reputation as an offensive-minded maven while serving as the offensive coordinator of the Buccaneers. They appeared improved but erratic in the early going, and it seemed a leaky defense could be their undoing after squandering a 20-point lead to the offensively-challenged Texans in a 36=29 loss that dropped them to 5-4. However, they finished the season on a torrid stretch that saw QB Trevor Lawrence, the much-criticized No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, find the most efficient stretch of his career as the Jaguars averaged nearly 34 points during their current winning streak. The offense was aided by a resurgence from Lawrence's former Clemson teammate, RB Travis Etienne, and the midseason acquisition of reliable wideout Jakobi Meyers. Those who favor the Jaguars on Sunday can make the logical argument that this is simply a locomotive that you don't want to get in front of, especially one with home-field advantage against a flawed opponent.

Bills-Jaguars prop pick

Khalil Shakir Over 4.5 receptions (-120): Shakir remains the closet thing to a WR1 for Allen among a rag-tag group of Buffalo pass catchers. He finished with team highs of 72 catches and 719 yards with four touchdowns. Although his usage sometimes fluctuated, we expect him to be a integral part of a Bills offense that will need to keep pace with Jacksonville. The high total suggests an offense-heavy game script and the quick hitters that Shakir often sees near the line of scrimmage -- tantamount to long handoffs to the speedy wideout -- should be in play as a means for the Bills to consistently get decent yardage on early downs. Moreover, if the Bills find themselves trailing in the second half, Shakir will be relied upon as a downfield option. Ultimately, we feel Shakir's role is largely game-script proof and expect him to clear this number with room to spare.