Buccaneers at Patriots picks: Point spread, total, player props, trends for Tom Brady's return to New England

Get ready for Tom Brady vs. Bill Belichick with our gambling breakdown of 'Sunday Night Football'

The most highly anticipated regular-season game of the season (and possibly of all time) is upon us. For the first time since leaving the organization in the spring of 2020 after two-decades of unprecedented success, Tom Brady is returning to Foxborough to take on his former team in the New England Patriots and former head coach in Bill Belichick. The 44-year-old quarterback will be rolling into Gillette Stadium with his new squad in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are looking to repeat as Super Bowl champions in 2021. 

In this space, we'll dive into all the different betting angles that this game has for us. We'll take a look at how the spread and total have moved throughout the week leading up to this epic head-to-head and we'll give our picks for this game as well, along with a few player props that catch our eye. 

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

How to watch

Date: Sunday, Oct. 3 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Buccaneers -7, O/U 49.5

Line movement

The Buccaneers opened as a 5.5-point favorite and that advantage has only increased as the week has gone on. On the eve of this matchup, Tampa Bay is a full 7-point road favorite against the Patriots.  

The pick: Buccaneers -7. While this is a polarizing matchup thanks to Brady playing his former team, I don't know if this will be particularly competitive. The Buccaneers are simply the better football team and are by a wide margin. Tampa's offensive efficiency ranks inside the top five in the NFL, while New England sits at 26th overall in DVOA, per Football Outsiders. At this stage in his career, it doesn't seem likely that Mac Jones will be able to go toe to toe with Brady, especially with the big discrepancy in talent at the skill positions. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS over its last five games following a straight-up loss and the Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall.  

Key trend: Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Over/Under total

The total for this game largely held at 49 for the bulk of the week, but has begun to tick up as it's now 49.5 as of Saturday afternoon. 

The pick: Under 49.5. There's a scenario where Brady just lights up the scoreboard to make a statement against his former team and basically takes us the bulk of the way to hitting the Over, but I have little faith in the Patriots' offense being able to match the scoring production. Jones has yet to truly master the deep ball and the protection in front of him hasn't given him much help as of late. Now, he'll face a tough Bucs front seven that should continue to give the offense headaches. 

Key trend: Under is 7-1 in Patriots' last eight home games.

Tom Brady props

• Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +110, Under -140) 
• Passing yards: 304.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
• Pass attempts: 39.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
• Completions: 25.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
• Longest pass completion: 38.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -135, Under +105)

The Over on Brady's completions prop at 25.5 is where I'd lean out of this bunch. The quarterback needs just 68 yards passing to be break the NFL record, so he'll likely be dropping back early and often against his former club. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots defend Brady, but he's gone over this number in two of his three games played this season. 

Mac Jones props

• Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
• Passing yards: 259.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
• Pass attempts: 37.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
• Completions: 25.5 (Over -105, Under 125)
• Longest pass completion: 35.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -145, Under +115)

I expect the Patriots to be trailing in this game, which is why I like the Over on Jones' 37.5 pass attempts prop for Sunday. New England will likely need to lean on the rookie quarterback to try and throw its way to a victory. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers' secondary isn't particularly dominant, allowing a 72.2 completion percentage and 338.3 passing yards per game. Jones has also topped this prop in two of his three starts, including last week when he dropped back 51 times. 

Player props to consider

Jakobi Meyers total receptions: Over 5.5 (-130). Meyers saw 14 targets last week and should continue to be a go-to outlet for Jones, especially now that passing-down back James White is on IR. 

Leonard Fournette total rushing yards: Over 48.5 (-115). New England is allowing 122.7 rushing yards per game on 4 yards per carry. 

J.J. Taylor anytime touchdown (+850). Lottery ticket, but Taylor is poised to take over the third-down back role left by White, which was quite productive through the first three weeks. Taylor is an electrifying back that has the ability to score any time he touches the ball, making this one of the more exciting longshot plays of this game.

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