The Buccaneers are not 2-5 just because of Jameis Winston. They're also 2-5 because their defense is the third-worst defense in football by DVOA and they're incapable of making a field goal. But the Buccaneers need more from their quarterback if they're going to overcome their horrific start and live up to the playoff expectations that came attached to them entering the season.

You don't take a quarterback No. 1 overall -- over another potential franchise-altering quarterback like Marcus Mariota -- so he can simply be a part of a successful or disappointing team, along for the ride, up and down with the rest of the team. You draft a quarterback No. 1 overall to mask your other flaws, so that constructing a Super Bowl roster becomes a heck of a lot easier. A franchise-saving quarterback is supposed to overcome roster flaws, to make his teammates better, to lift his team above their true talent level. Maybe those are unfair expectations, but those are the expectations of the league that Winston is living in.

The Buccaneers need more from Winston. And they need it now.

On Sunday, the Buccaneers will face the 5-2 Saints in New Orleans. A loss will likely KO the Buccaneers' season. And a loss is likely. The Saints are winners of five straight. They boast a plus-46 point differential -- the fifth-highest in football -- and are ranked fifth in overall DVOA. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are losers of four straight, have been outscored by 20 points this season, and are 24th in overall DVOA.

All signs indicate that the Saints will beat the Buccaneers. They're the better overall team. And it's not even close. So, to pull off a shocker and save their season, the Buccaneers will need to play above their talent level. To do that, the Buccaneers need Winston to finally play up to his potential.

The injury issue

First, it's important to acknowledge that Winston has been dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder (an AC joint sprain) since Oct. 15. He's played through the injury twice now and both games have resulted in losses. 

In his first game after the injury, he faced a tough Bills defense and went 32 of 44 for 384 yards, three touchdowns, one pick, and a 112.3 passer rating. He didn't seem to be severely impacted by the injury. All three of his touchdowns came in the second half. And the loss was sealed when the defense blew a late lead.

In the second game against the Panthers, Winston completed 21 of 38 passes for 210 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 49.2 passer rating. He was a significant part of the problem in that loss. Winston has always been wildly inconsistent, alternating great performances with absolute duds. Sunday was no exception.

Throughout the past two weeks, Winston has been sitting out of practice until Friday. So, he's clearly affected in some way by the injury. That's important. It doesn't mean Winston gets a free pass for how he's played this season, it just means we shouldn't forget about the injury. It means it might be more difficult for him to engineer a turnaround in the next two months. 

But the Buccaneers need him to overcome the injury. 

NFL: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are counting on a banged-up Winston to get them out of their rut.  USATSI

He's stagnated 

Winston's quality of play didn't drastically dip after the shoulder injury. Even when he was healthy, he failed to make the leap from a promising yet maddeningly inconsistent quarterback to a franchise-caliber quarterback. 

Take a look at his stats on a weekly bais:

Comp.%

Yards

TDs

INTs

Rating

vs. Bears

60%

204

1

0

91.5

vs. Vikings

70%

328

2

3

80.0

vs. Giants

57.9%

332

3

0

113.0

vs. Patriots

56.5%

334

1

0

86.7

vs. Cardinals*

50%

61

0

0

69.2

vs. Bills

72.7%

384

3

1

112.3

vs. Panthers

55.3%

210

0

2

49.2

*Didn't play a full game due to the shoulder injury. 

Here's how those numbers add up with their league rankings in parentheses:

  • 61.8 completion percentage (20th) 
  • 7.5 yards per pass (10th)
  • 10 touchdowns (tied 15th)
  • 6 interceptions (tied for the 10th most)
  • 88.3 passer rating (18th).

As you can see, Winston's inconsistencies have continued to plague him. Across the board, he's a middling quarterback.

Before the season, I wrote that progress from Winston was the only thing holding back the Buccaneers. To this point, Winston's yet to improve substantially in any area. Comparing this year to last season, his completion percentage is up one percent, his yards per attempt is up 0.3 yards, his touchdown and interception rates are both down 0.8 percent, and his passer rating is up 2.2 points. So for the most part, he has stagnated.

More advanced statistics aren't kinder to him. By Pro Football Focus' adjusted accuracy percentage (which "accounts for dropped passes, throw aways, spiked balls, batted passes, and passes where the quarterback was hit while they threw the ball"), Winston ranks 26th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks. Last year, he ranked 26th out of 29 quarterbacks. 

He's accumulated the fourth-lowest passer rating (67.4) on passes that travel at least 20 yards downfield, according to PFF. Last year, he ranked 21st out of 27 with a 71.0 passer rating on such throws.

When he's been under pressure, he's posted a 67.6 passer rating (18th of 31), according to PFF. Last year, his passer rating under pressure was 70.0. And it's worth noting that his protection has improved. Last season, he faced pressure at the ninth-highest rate (38.3), per PFF. This year, his pressure rate has dropped to 28.6, which is the sixth-lowest in football.

Here's an example of his struggles against pressure and throwing deep all packed into one GIF from a couple weeks ago:

You get the point. He hasn't improved despite the Buccaneers adding DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard this offseason.

The most likely excuse from his defenders are going to be related to his throwing shoulder, which again, is something we should keep in mind. But Winston's shoulder has nothing to do with poor decision making, which has accounted for many of his mistakes. Accuracy and decision making continue to be flaws that show up whenever you turn on his game film.

There's no way in hell he should even be trying to squeeze this into his receiver, who was sandwiched between a trailing defender and a safety coming over the top. The result is a throw behind his target and an interception. 

This is just an easy throw. He misses it.

It's too early to write off Winston, who still oozes raw talent and untapped potential. But at this point, through 39 career games, it's time to acknowledge that he's been an erratic quarterback. His highs might be higher than other quarterback (which is what makes him such a frustrating and tantalizing player to watch), but his lows occur too frequently. And for a team like the Buccaneers, whose defense and special teams are also underperforming, that isn't good enough.

The Buccaneers can't afford to waste any more time. If they lose on Sunday, they'll be four full games behind the Saints in the NFC South. If they win, they'll be two games behind the Saints with one more matchup against them remaining on the schedule. Even if you're not looking at the NFC South, the Buccaneers need a win just to keep pace in the wild-card hunt.

A difficult matchup against the Saints

So, how can he get back on track against the Saints? It won't be easy. In the past, games against the Saints offered the perfect opportunity for a struggling offense to rebound. That's not the case anymore. 

This Saints defense is allowing only 20.7 points per game and is ranked 16th in DVOA. The Saints' defense isn't, by any means, a shutdown unit. But it's no longer bad. It's capable and completely adequate, which still feels weird to say about the Saints. 

Winston would be wise to stay away from rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore or at the very least, be wary of his whereabouts. Lattimore hasn't just snagged two interceptions, he's also posted a 33.3 passer rating in coverage -- the second-lowest among cornerbacks. The Buccaneers also might need to commit extra men to block elite pass rusher Cameron Jordan (5.5 sacks). Those two players are the Saints' best on the defensive side of the ball. 

saints-defense.jpg
Lattimore, right, leads a much-improved Saints defense.  USATSI

Winston can also expect to be blitzed ... a ton. According to PFF, the Saints blitz on 40.3 percent of their defensive snaps. League average? 29.7 percent. That's not good news for Winston, who struggles against the blitz. He's been blitzed on 84 dropbacks this season and has completed 55 percent of his passes, averaged 7.2 yards per attempt, thrown three touchdowns and three picks, and posted a 74.9 passer rating, per PFF. His rating when he isn't blitzed rises to 94.8. Expect the Saints to bring the heat against a quarterback who's been worse against extra rushers. 

So no, this doesn't seem like the best matchup for Winston. He's dealing with a shoulder injury. He's visiting a hostile environment. He's going up against a defense that loves doing what he struggles with. And it's not like his underperforming defense can be counted on to slow down Drew Brees and the Saints' suddenly formidable rushing attack.

But none of that changes the fact that the Buccaneers need their quarterback to elevate his level of play. It only heightens the pressure on Winston. On Sunday and beyond, he needs to begin showing signs of improvement. And he can only do that by stringing together consecutive stellar outings. We've seen him do it from time to time, but the consistency has always been lacking. If he can do that, he'll get the Buccaneers back into the playoff race and even if that doesn't happen, he'll give them a reason to be more optimistic heading into the 2018 season. But if he can't raise his performance in the second half of the season, the Buccaneers will certainly miss the playoffs and the same questions hounding Winston will follow him and the Buccaneers into next season.

Progress from Jameis Winston still stands in the path to the Buccaneers' playoff aspirations. It was true before the season. And it's still true at the midway point of the year.