Is Mac Jones the NFL's next great young quarterback? Here's why we need to be careful about anointing him

Jones has played precisely as we thought, but there's still one massive hang-up with him

How someone perceives the start of Mac Jones' NFL career is more of a reflection of what he or she values in a quarterback than anything else. 

The most alluring aspect of Jones the prospect was his high floor. He typically threw accurately to the correct receiver at Alabama en route to off-the-charts efficiency in, arguably, an offensive environment more conducive to quarterback success than any other in college football history. 

And Jones has provided the Patriots with -- you guessed it -- "high floor" play heading into Week 11. While New England hasn't been able to provide him with quite the advantages the Crimson Tide could, the Patriots have smartly spoon-fed him responsibility in the offense. 

Because what gave many -- including myself -- pause with Jones the prospect was his lower ceiling. He has an average-at-its-very-best arm and clearly substandard athleticism to create with his legs when things aren't perfect. 

With a high frequency of short, schemed-open, easy completions, Jones' main duty has been to quickly get the ball out of his hands to the open receiver, and he's done that robotically. He's been accurate on 87.3% on the nearly 50% of his passes -- 49.3% to be exact -- with targets behind the line of scrimmage or up to five yards beyond it. 

There's value in that, and I understand if that's what you value most in a quarterback, being capable of meticulously operating a well-oiled, low-risk, you-can't-go-broke-taking-a-profit offense. It's gotten the Patriots pass offense into the top half of Football Outsiders pass offense DVOA (15th currently) after finishing 27th in that vital metric a season ago. 

But after New England's demolition of the Browns, which extended the club's winning streak to four games, a narrative was born that Jones would be the first quarterback selected if the 2021 class re-drafted today. 

Heck, I've even seen suggestions that he's having an impact on this Patriots team that rivals early-career Andrew Luck in Indianapolis. 

As someone who's watched all of Mac Jones' drop-backs this season as part of my weekly young quarterback grades series, those ideas are preposterous. 

I feel a disconnect on the Jones storyline because -- while I'm certainly not opposed to "high floor" prospects -- the primary goal at quarterback in the first round should be high ceiling. Why is that? Because, eventually in the NFL, the quarterback -- if he is to be legitimately Super Bowl caliber -- must mask team flaws. 

And what Jones has essentially done so far is simply not pollute a thriving environment around him. 

In late June, I ranked the first-round quarterbacks by team situation, which of course is vital to a young passer's development. While having the worst skill-position group of the bunch, I labeled the Patriots as a club with the second-best offensive line and play caller, and the third-best defense. 

As it turns out, Jones' offensive line is playing better than any of the blocking units protecting first-year quarterbacks, and the defense is clearly the best.

And when you watch Jones, the lack of upside is as overtly apparent as his keen ability to get the ball out accurately and in a hurry. 

If teams could re-pick the 2021 draft today, I'm not hesitating to pick Lawrence at No. 1 overall. Heck, the main change I'd make is Justin Fields at No. 2. Trey Lance remains a complete enigma, and yeah, maybe Zach Wilson slightly damaged his reputation with his play before his injury. 

But the smart and accurate Jones would still be, at best, the third or fourth passer off my board. 

Selling Jones as a brilliantly mistake-averse, model game-manager would be wrong. His 2.2% interception rate is only the 18th-lowest in the NFL, and his 5.6% sack rate is the 15th-lowest. 

But right now for the Patriots, none of that matters. They've quietly constructed a quarterback-friendly atmosphere for their youthful passer, and the defense is surging.

Has Jones played well for a rookie? Absolutely. Yet while grading him, it's been a challenge almost every week to find throws worth highlighting, good or bad. Maybe he's the next super-successful quarterback that wins from the pocket in spite of his limited mobility and weak arm. But are you seeing a lot of those types in today's NFL? I'm not. 

Based on what he's done individually to date, I'm just not ready to anoint Jones as the next young star quarterback in the NFL.