NFL player props, odds, expert picks for Week 18, 2021-22: Tom Brady goes under 291.5 passing yards for Bucs

Over the past two seasons, PropStarz is up well over $11,000 on NFL prop bets and NFL picks

Teams in must-win situations will want to get on the board early to relieve pressure. Caesars Sportsbook favors a Chargers TD (+145) as the first scoring play on Sunday Night Football, with a Las Vegas TD at +215 in its latest NFL Week 18 NFL prop bets. The Raiders' Josh Jacobs (+550) and fellow running back Austin Ekeler of the Chargers (+575) are the likeliest to score the first TD in the latest NFL player props. Before locking in any Week 18 NFL props, you need to check out the top NFL picks and predictions from NFL props expert Alex Selesnick.

Over the past two seasons, Selesnick (aka PropStarz) is up more than 116 units on NFL props and futures plays. For a $100 bettor, that's a well over $11,000 return. PropStarz specializes in NFL and NBA prop betting, where he implements a combination of research, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. His background playing competitive poker, Scrabble and backgammon helped form the foundation of his sports betting approach.

Through 17 weeks, PropStarz is an impressive 50-35 on his picks for SportsLine, and last week he nailed Cardinals QB Kyler Murray to go over 30.5 rushing yards (-110) against Dallas. The expert typically shies away from QB rushing props, but this number was too enticing to pass up.

"This is a friendly number," PropStarz told SportsLine, "one that Murray has eclipsed in 25 of 44 career games." The expert added that the strength of the Dallas pass defense and its quality pass rushers would force Murray to make plays with his feet.

The third-year Cardinals starter rushed nine times for 44 yards, five over his career average, as Arizona upset the Cowboys 25-22 and cashed the expert's bet.   

Now, after sifting through the hundreds of available Week 18 NFL prop bets, PropStarz has found five more picks he loves. He's only sharing his Week 18 NFL prop picks at SportsLine. 

Top 2021-22 Week 18 NFL prop picks

One prop bet that PropStarz loves for NFL Week 18: Buccaneers QB Tom Brady goes under 291.5 passing yards (-125) against the Panthers. The teams met in Week 16, and the future Hall of Famer threw for just 232 yards as the Bucs relied on the run in the 32-6 victory. Former Vanderbilt running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn had a 55-yard TD run in that game, as Tampa Bay rushed for 159 yards.

The Panthers' defense is far better against the pass, allowing just 184 yards per game through the air (second in NFL). It is 20th against the run, giving up 116 per contest. The Bucs also have issues at receiver, with Chris Godwin out for the season and Antonio Brown no longer on the team after last week's outburst. Brady has 4,990 passing yards and still has Mike Evans, so they'll get yards, but this number is too high, according to PropStarz.

How to make 2021-22 NFL Week 18 prop bet picks

PropStarz has locked in four other Week 18 NFL prop picks, including a star receiver who will have a bounce-back game that you'll want to jump on right away.  You can get all his Week 18 NFL prop bet picks over at SportsLine.

What are the five best Week 18 NFL prop picks you can make? And which receiver prop do you need to jump on now? Visit SportsLine now to see the best Week 18 NFL prop bets, all from the expert up more than 116 units the past two years, and find out.