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Remember: You can stream the AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Jaguars live right here on CBSSports.com.

The New England Patriots are in the AFC Championship Game. This comes as no surprise to almost anyone. They were expected to be here. They were the preseason favorites in both the AFC and the NFL overall. They've been here a ton of times before, and it would have been a massive upset if they didn't make it to this point. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are their opponent, and that's a very big surprise. Jacksonville wasn't even a trendy playoff pick this season. The Jags were almost uniformly picked to come in last in the AFC South, and they had the sixth-lowest over/under in the NFL. Instead, they won their division and upset the Steelers on the road in order to crash the title game party. 

The Patriots are heavy favorites to advance to the Super Bowl, but the Jags do fit the mold of several teams that have upset New England in the playoffs in the past. Earlier this week, our Ryan Wilson detailed how they can make that happen. Below, I'll dive into how the Pats can stave off an upset -- assuming Tom Brady suits up. 

How to Watch

Who: Jaguars vs. Patriots
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
When: Sunday, Jan. 21, 3:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS 
Stream: CBS All Access

Work the interior of the field through the air

The Jaguars have the best pass defense in the NFL. They allowed 22 fewer passing yards per game than any other team in the league. They allowed fewer passing touchdowns than all but two teams and recorded more interceptions than all but one. They ranked first in opponent's completion percentage, opponent's yards per game, opponent's passer rating, and Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA. 

The strength of the pass defense is the pass-rush and the cornerbacks. 

Jacksonville recorded 55 sacks during the regular season, which ranked second in the NFL behind the Steelers. They recorded a sack, hit, or hurry on 40.4 percent of opponent drop backs, far above the league average of 34.7 percent; and they did it despite having one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL (19.0 percent). Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue, Malik Jackson, Marcell Dareus, and Dante Fowler form the core of one of the most devastating groups of rush men in the league. 

Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye were arguably the two best cornerbacks in the league. Opposing passers had a passer rating of just 63.9 when throwing at receivers covered by Ramsey this season, per Pro Football Focus. That's the equivalent of turning every quarterback into Brady Quinn. Amazingly, QBs were even worse when throwing at Bouye, who did not allow a single touchdown during the regular season. Opponents had a disgusting 31.6 passer rating when throwing in his direction. There is not a single quarterback in NFL history that has thrown at least 500 passes and come within six points of that rating. Even slot corner Aaron Colvin, the least-heralded member of Jacksonville's trio, was also excellent. Opponents averaged just 5.3 yards per attempt when targeting a slot receiver that Colvin was covering. 

The "weakness" of the Jaguars pass defense, if it could be said to have one, was covering tight ends and running backs. The Jags ranked just 20th in Football Outsiders' DVOA against tight ends, and they ranked 15th against running backs. When you're playing against a team with both Rob Gronkowski and a plethora of pass-catching running backs, that's not great. 

Gronk is an impossible cover. He's Tom Brady's No. 1 passing game option to begin with, but he should be even more of a focal point against a Jacksonville team that is far stronger against passes to the perimeter than the middle. Additionally, working Dion Lewis, James White, and Rex Burkhead (if he plays) in the passing game against linebackers and safeties would provide an opportunity for quick, safe gains through the air in order to keep the pressure unit off-balance. 

Unleash Dion Lewis

It took him a while to work his way into the position, but Dion Lewis emerged down the stretch of the season as a true feature back for the Patriots. 

From Week 11 through 17, Lewis averaged 15 carries and three receptions per game, accumulating an average of 103 yards per game during those weeks. He stepped it up even more once Rex Burkhead and James White got injured, setting career-highs in carries in back-to-back weeks in the final two games of the year. In Week 16 and 17, Lewis carried 50 times for 222 yards and two touchdowns, and also caught 11 passes for 62 yards and two more scores. In New England's win over the Titans, he found some tough sledding on the ground (15 carries for 62 yards); but he was a force in the passing game, hauling in nine passes for 79 yards. 

The Jaguars did not have quite as strong a run defense during the regular season as the Titans. They finished 26th in both yards per carry allowed and rush defense DVOA. They got better against the run after acquiring Marcell Dareus, however, ranking ninth in the league in yards per carry against from Week 6 on. 

As mentioned above, though, the Jags struggled against running backs in the passing game. With Lewis' versatility, he should be able to find success either on the ground or through the air. He's the one back that does not tip off whether the Patriots will run or pass when he's in the game, as there was almost an even split when he was on the field. (He had 44.5 percent run rate, 43.0 percent pass route rate, and 12.5 percent block rate.) 

Make Blake Bortles beat you

What the Patriots do better than any other team in the NFL is take away a team's strengths and force them to play to their own weaknesses in order to win. Against the Jaguars, that will almost surely mean focusing on stopping the Leonard Fournette-led running game and forcing Blake Bortles to beat their defense through the air. 

Bortles has fared far better this season than anyone could have reasonably expected. He posted career-best figures in completion percentage, interception rate, and net yards per attempt. He has a deep and versatile group of pass-catchers to throw to, even with Allen Robinson missing the entire season with his torn ACL. Marqise Lee, Allen Hurns, Dede Westbrook, and Keelan Cole all stepped up at times as Bortles' top target, and they all shined to differing levels throughout the year. 

Still, while Bortles was better than expected, he was still not all that great, and he was still prone to meltdown games when heavily pressured. He ranked 24th among 32 qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage, 17th in yards per attempt, and 20th in passer rating. He completed south of 65 percent of his passes when under pressure, per Pro Football Focus, and posted a passer rating of just 64.6 on those plays. 

He had four multi-interception games during the regular season. He had six games with a passer rating below 75. He had four games where he completed less than 55 percent of his passes. He also completed less than 55 percent of his passes in both of Jacksonville's playoff wins. He threw for all of 87 yards against the Bills. This really happened two weeks ago! 

The Patriots did not have a very strong pass defense this season and their pass rush was one of the most anemic in the NFL, but again, Belichick does not game-plan to minimize his own team's weaknesses -- he game-plans to maximize the weaknesses of his opponent. This week, that means making Jacksonville win the game through the air.