NFL power ratings: Spread projections reveal three questionable lines in Wild Card round
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every wild card matchup in the NFL playoffs
We talked about how the market was treating teams potentially resting players last week in five games and went 4-1 on those picks, and now we turn from the games that mean little to the games that mean everything. The playoffs start Saturday with the Rams heading to Carolina to face a Panthers team that is a double-digit underdog in the matchup, a monster spread and one that has been impossible to cover in the past.
Think that's an exaggeration? Home underdogs of four points or more in playoff games are 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years and while the previous three all covered in a losing effort, the previous six all won outright. If you look at games where a team is catching more than seven points, then we have three previous examples, all coming in the last 15 years.
The most recent underdog of at least four points came during the 2020 playoffs when Tom Brady went to Washington to face a 7-9 team led by Taylor Heinicke as 10-point favorites. A field goal late in the first half got the Bucs just outside the number with an 18-7 halftime lead and then they did it again by extending their lead to 28-16 in the fourth quarter, but Washington scored a late TD and a 31-23 final left them with the cover.
Skipping two 4.5-point underdogs that covered, our second huge home dog came in the 2011 playoffs when Mike Tomlin took the best defense in the league into Denver to face a questionable Broncos offense led by Tim Tebow, which caused the home team to be catching 7.5 points. The Broncos led from the second quarter until late in the fourth when the Steelers tied the game, then an 80-yard TD to Demaryius Thomas gave Denver the outright win.
The year prior, the Saints marched into Seattle as 10-point favorites against a 7-9 Seahawks team that like the Broncos had been unimpressive on both sides of the ball entering the postseason. The Saints managed a 10-point lead early before the Seahawks stormed back and led the final 31 minutes of the game, emphasizing their victory with the unforgettable Beast Quake touchdown by Marshawn Lynch late in the 41-36 win.
So what's the takeaway? To me, it is incredibly hard for any team to walk into an opposing stadium as no-doubt winners and put together a performance to meet expectations, as you have to play a near-perfect game to cover such a big number on the road against a team -- even a mediocre team -- that was able to win its division. The 2020 Bucs went on to win the Super Bowl in dominant fashion against the Chiefs but when they failed to cover in the wild card round, they had four drives stall in the red zone and result in field goals and lost a fumble on another drive that was near field goal range.
The Rams are similar to that Bucs team with an elite QB late in his career paired with some great weapons and facing a team with a subpar offense that won a bad division, although that Washington team had a better defense than Carolina. My power ratings say this spread should be Rams -7, and I would certainly expect a result around that number more than I would covering as double-digit road favorites considering the history of those teams in the playoffs.
I'll have my spread picks this week at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and then take a look at what the spread should be for every other game during Super Wild Card Weekend.
Wild card round power ratings
| Team | WC | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8 | 7 |
| SEA | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6.5 |
| JAC | 5.5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| PHI | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 2 |
| NE | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| DEN | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| BUF | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| LAC | 3.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 |
| HOU | 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 |
| SF | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 2 |
| GB | 2.5 | 0 | 1.5 | 3 | 5 |
| CHI | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
| PIT | 1.5 | -1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
| CAR | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1 | -2.5 | -2 |
I have given a bump to the Eagles, Bills, Chargers and Packers with those four teams getting key players rest in Week 18 as that really seems to matter more often than not, especially for teams as beat up as those four rosters. The Rams and Seahawks stay in their own tier despite not resting players and while the gap is notable between them and the next tier, it's no so big that I think rematch -- potentially in the NFC Championship if the 49ers or Packers win this week -- is inevitable.
I feel like the Jaguars are the best team in the AFC right now but aren't being treated as such by the market, and I'm surprised they're underdogs to the Bills. I'm putting the Eagles alongside Jacksonville with the expectation the offense will be better with Lane Johnson expected to return this week. They don't have the offense of the Rams or the defense of the Seahawks, but they are probably better balanced than either so even at 5.5, I might have them a little low.
Three AFC teams sit as five points better than average, but I think two could be a point high, if not more. I gave the Bills credit for the rest and hopefully they'll be in as good shape for their game against Jacksonville as they've been in months from a health perspective, but that remains to be seen. The Patriots have not faced many tough offenses this year, splitting their games with a beat-up Bills squad while edging out a Bucs team at the beginning of its downturn and a Ravens team that lost Lamar Jackson midgame. Both of those teams didn't make the playoffs, so the only playoff teams New England has faced are the Bills, Steelers and Panthers.
The Chargers are going to be at the mercy of matchups moving forward with their patchwork offensive line, but Justin Herbert has overcome those limitations in the past and the defense is in top form, so I'm not ruling out Jim Harbaugh's team from making some noise in the postseason. I give them a slight edge over a less-proven Houston offense.
I have the 49ers and Packers side by side as I don't know what we're going to get from either, but I'm almost certain it'll be tied to player availability. San Francisco absolutely needs Trent Williams back against that Philadelphia front and comments from the weekend make it sound like he would've had a chance to play if the Week 18 game fell on Sunday, so I'd give him better than even odds to be back for the matchup. The Packers defense might be a major problem with the injuries it has sustained, so we'll see if Jordan Love and the offensive unit can catch fire and that possibility has me profiling those two NFC wild card teams similarly.
I'm not putting much confidence in a Bears team that beat expectations to win the division but looked mediocre for much of the regular season finale against the Lions at home. Chicago certainly has the feel of a one-and-done team who might be in for bigger things next season. I'm giving the Steelers a boost with T.J. Watt back and DK Metcalf returning for the wild-card round, and I feel like the easy out is to just keep underestimating them because the talent on paper might not be on par with many of the other playoff teams.
The Panthers, even as a below-average overall team, have a fighter's chance at beating a team they've already beat once at home, and we talked about the history of big road favorites above. Now, let's get into the other matchups.
Packers at Bears
This game is functionally a pick 'em with the Packers only favored on the money line by a few cents. My ratings give the Bears a slightly better chance to win as they would project a spread of Bears -1.5, and that's acknowledging Chicago has had one of the better home field advantages in the league recently. The Bears were 5-3 ATS at home this year but missed a cover in the win over the Giants by a half-point, and their other two ATS losses were close games against the Vikings to open the season and the Lions to close it.
I also think there's a bit of wiggle room to reduce the Packers' rating downward as my current number projects good health for the offense coming off the rest week. The defense lost one of the best edge rushers in the league in Micah Parsons, and the Devonte Wyatt injury leaves them a mess on the interior. Nate Hobbs went on IR late in the year and Trevon Diggs is trying to replace him on the fly. The defense may have avoided another disaster after Jevon Holland left the Week 18 game with a knee injury, but that's another issue a player has to play through. That's before we get to an offense that's lost Elgton Jenkins at center and is now hoping Zach Tom returns and is able to play up to his typical high level at right tackle, with key target Tucker Kraft also out and Josh Jacobs playing through injury much of the year.
We've seen plenty of upstarts with young quarterbacks like the Packers, Texans and Jaguars win a playoff game in their first trip to the postseason with that guy under center, so I'm not counting the Bears out just because they're upstarts. But it's going to take more consistency on both sides of the ball to get it done.
Bills at Jaguars
The market has made the Bills a slight 1.5-point favorite in this game, saying that Josh Allen is enough to overcome home field advantage and overall team strength. My ratings of course disagree, as I have the Jaguars as the better team on a neutral field and project them as a 2.5-point favorite in this game. That's even with giving the Bills a bump for resting players in Week 18.
The Bills have been mostly successful in games where they can run the ball, like the blowout win over the Jets with their starters resting, and not as successful in games where they can't run the ball, as happened in the loss to the Eagles the previous week. Allen has not been able to rely on his passing-game weapons as much, and his 25 passing touchdowns are the fewest since his first full season as starter. He's also been sacked more than ever, 40 times in all and on 8% of dropbacks where he didn't run for positive yards, which is well above its highest point since 2019. The defense has been its own issue, particularly defending the run, with six opponents rushing for at least 189 yards as the Bills finished 30th in yards per rush allowed. I already think I'm being aggressively positive with their rating, so that suggests the market hasn't bought into Jacksonville at all.
The Jaguars are a team that plays sound run defense with a quarterback that was playing like a darkhorse MVP candidate down the stretch, potentially shortening the gap between him and Allen. If he falls apart in this spot and Allen doesn't, then the Bills can certainly win this game. Take away the QBs and I see a much stronger roster on both sides of the ball from the home team.
49ers at Eagles
This line has seen some early movement to the Eagles, and I think that's right. My ratings give them a boost for the rest edge after last week and are counting on them to wipe away their inconsistency on offense from the regular season, and I have them as three points better than the 49ers, who like the Patriots played a relatively easy schedule this year, on a neutral field. In Philadelphia, my spread projection is Eagles -5.5.
An offensive lineman is never going to win MVP, but two tackles in this game certainly have a case to do so. The Eagles' season turned negative as usual after the Lane Johnson injury as they lost their next three games, beat two pushovers and then edged out the Bills in a bad game for the offense considering the opponent. The 49ers offense in the biggest spot of the year was non-functional without Trent Williams on the field in Week 18. It appears both guys are trending toward playing in this matchup, which is good news for getting the best possible version of these teams and especially for avoiding the worst. While the 49ers defense did their part in that game last week, they still have the potential to be the team's fatal flaw with how they played down the stretch.
For that to happen, the Eagles offense will need to finally pull it all together and start to look like the attack that ran through the playoffs last year before obliterating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. They ranked just 19th in scoring offense and an unbelievable 23rd in yards per rush considering how unstoppable the ground game was last season. A healthy offensive line could help them get closer to that level than they've been for much of the season.
Chargers at Patriots
If I had to pick a game where the spread is probably right, it would be Packers-Bears. But this would be a close second. I think I'm pretty aggressive with my rating for both teams, and my spread projection for this matchup is Patriots -4.
I probably have the Chargers rated higher than most at 3.5 points better than average, which is in part due to them getting to rest last week. But I also think the team isn't getting enough credit for a defense that has held nine of its last 10 opponents to 20 points or fewer. That run includes four playoff teams, stopping a Broncos team fighting for the No. 1 seed from scoring an offensive touchdown while recovering from two early touchdowns allowed to Houston the previous week to keep the team in the game. They also generated five turnovers in an overtime win over the Eagles and three in a dominant victory against Pittsburgh. Their one bad performance in this stretch came against the Jaguars, who might be the hottest team in football.
There are plenty of Patriots naysayers due to their easy schedule but you can only beat who you play, and they have top-four scoring offenses and defenses on the season. The question is whether they have the edge rushers to take advantage of the Chargers' weakness at tackle, because if they don't and Justin Herbert can lead the team to 20 points, it might be enough to score the upset with how well the Chargers defense is playing.
Texans at Steelers
This game may keep bouncing between 3 and 3.5 as the market looks to buy in to the Texans and fade the Steelers, but maybe it shouldn't. Home underdogs between 3-4 points are 5-2 ATS in the last 10 years, and going back to our initial look at the Rams-Panthers game, all home 'dogs of three points or more are 10-3-1 ATS since the 2011 playoffs and 18-9-1 ATS since 1981. I'm trying not to underrate the Steelers, and with their excellent home-field advantage my spread projection for this game is Pittsburgh -1.
For how the Steelers offense is judged based on the personnel on paper, they've scored 25+ points in nine of their last 12 games, only getting shut down by the Browns and Chargers on the road and a Bills team that ran all over them. The Texans defense is second to none so it's possible we see a similar Pittsburgh offensive outing to what we saw in those Browns and Chargers games, but they also scored 23-25 points in three straight home games earlier in the year against the Vikings, Browns and Packers. The Texans also just gave up 30 points against Riley Leonard despite getting three takeaways, so they're not exactly in their best form.
The Texans offense has put up a bunch of points against some awful defenses, but I still can't trust them in a tough matchup after what they showed against the Raiders a few weeks ago. This Pittsburgh defense just got back T.J. Watt as well, giving them a strong group of edge rushers that can overwhelm Houston's subpar O-line and make life difficult for C.J. Stroud, who hit two long TDs early against the Chargers but had just 126 yards on his other 26 attempts. It's a game where I don't think I'd be surprised by any final score.
