NFL Week 16 odds, picks: Colts continue Cardinals' late-season downward trend, Patriots beat up Bills again

Three picks and a cloud of trust for Week 16

By Tom Fornelli

Dec 23, 2021 at 11:06 am ET • 4 min read

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I'm worried the NFL will get the wrong idea after what happened in Week 15. The league had multiple games played on Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, and I don't want it to think that's a good idea going forward. I know I received texts from friends who said the NFL should do this regularly, and I saw some media members echoing those sentiments, and I'm begging them to stop.

The only thing the NFL would accomplish by playing games four nights a week would be making fans tired of watching the NFL. Think about it. Football is easily the most popular sport in the United States, yet no spring league has ever had success because people don't want to watch football all the time. The scarcity is part of its appeal.

There are already plans to have more doubleheaders on Monday nights, and that's about as far as I'm willing to go. Hell, I'm not even sure I want that. By the time Monday night rolls around, I've typically been watching football (pro and college) for 72 hours. I'm pretty worn down by then.

Anyway, now that I've spent three paragraphs telling you I don't want to watch football all the time, now I'll tell you about which football games you should be betting on. I'm a complicated human being. All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Colts at Cardinals: Colts +1 (-110)

It feels like we've been here before, doesn't it? Last year the Cardinals started the season 6-3 but finished by losing five of their last seven and missed the playoffs. This season the Cardinals started 7-0 but have lost four of their last seven. Kyler Murray is banged up, and while a lot of attention was paid to his height coming out of college, the real danger of Murray's size is his ability to withstand an entire NFL season.

While Kyler was sharp in his return from injury against the Bears, he's been bad the last two weeks, and it's clear he's not 100%. This week he's going against a tough and physical Indianapolis defense that has caused problems for many opponents and a team that's steamrolling opponents behind Jonathan Taylor. The Colts have been undervalued on the market all season long, but while the public is finally starting to catch on, this still strikes me as a situation where the wrong team is favored.

Prediction: Colts 27, Cardinals 24

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Chargers at Texans: Chargers -10 (-110)

I took the Texans last week against the Jaguars, and while I appreciate them getting the win outright, I wasn't betting on them because I believed in them. I was betting them because the Jaguars are just that much worse. The Chargers, on the other hand, are not. So I now find myself betting on a double-digit road favorite in an NFL game. I assure you, this is not a position I enjoy being in, so the fact I'm here should tell you how confident I am in the pick.

The Texans are terrible, and the Chargers offense is playing extremely well. Los Angeles already ranks third in the league in points per drive at 2.57, but over the last five games, that number is at 2.83. Now, on the flip side, the Chargers defense has been bad most of the season, but Houston's offense is terrible too. While I don't think the Chargers can truly blow the doors off anybody with their defense, I do think they can score enough to cover this spread against a Texans team with nothing to play for.

Prediction: Chargers 31, Texans 17

Bills at Patriots: Patriots -2.5 (-110)

I know the Bills won last week to put a temporary end to their recent slide, but it was against Cam Newton and the Panthers. We already know the Bills can beat Cam Newton because their only two wins against New England in the last nine meetings came with Cam at QB for the Patriots. This is a series the Patriots have long dominated (they've won 36 of the 43 meetings since 2000), and I expect that run to continue.

The Bills have legitimate problems in the trenches that a win over the Panthers will not fix. We've seen it all year. When Buffalo goes up against a team that's strong on its lines, it loses. It lost to Tennessee, it lost to Indianapolis, it lost to Tampa Bay, and it lost to these Patriots 14-10 just a few weeks ago, as New England ran the ball on it all night long. Maybe they use that embarrassment as motivation and turn things around this weekend. Or maybe the Patriots will just beat them again. I know which outcome I think is more likely.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Bills 16