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Definitely don't expect Sam Darnold to become the first rookie and/or first-year quarterback to storm into Foxborough and beat Bill Belichick on his home turf. But Darnold is playing well and the Patriots aren't interested in anything other than picking up a W here and securing home-field advantage. This is a turtle game for New England -- get a lead, run the ball, force Darnold to make some mistakes and don't care if he storms in the back door, just like Josh Allen did last week.
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If the Packers played Aaron Rodgers the full game against the Jets, they'll play him the full game against the Lions. And if he plays a full game along with Davante Adams, I like the Packers to take care of business against a Lions team that has two wins since Halloween -- a one-point win over the Panthers at home and a road win against the lousy Cardinals.
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Tampa lost its last two games but they were both on the road against good defenses and they gave a pretty good effort. There's nothing to play for here, but the Falcons are lousy on defense and aren't as good as the scores the last two weeks suggest. Jameis Winston should put up some pretty good numbers here before heading into a big offseason for his future.
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Lot of points here, but why are the Jaguars going to care about showing up for this game, especially if they get down a touchdown or 10 points early? The Jaguars snuffed out Miami last week but Houston is substantially better on offense, even if Deshaun Watson doesn't get very much protection from his offensive line. The Texans have to win in order to have a chance at the No. 2 seed, so they'll be motivated here.
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This is a weird spot. The Giants are favored by six points at home against a much better Cowboys team that keeps claiming this game matters. The Cowboys can't catch the Bears for the No. 3 seed and they can't miss the playoffs, having clinched the NFC East last week. So I don't buy it -- we've seen Jason Garrett pull his guys quickly in situations like this (remember Mark Sanchez against Philadelphia two years ago after Tony Romo threw that one touchdown pass). Give me Saquon Barkley to run wild as he tries to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
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This could change depending on what the weather is with this game, but I don't think the Bills are going to just blow anyone out. They're playing well at home and winning games, but I would expect the Dolphins can keep this one a little bit closer than the line suggests.
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Sort of blindly guessing on a line here: the Panthers will be starting Kyle Allen in this game. And even though the Saints won't be playing any of their starters, they still have a better option at quarterback in terms of Teddy Bridgewater. I think Teddy shows out and the Saints cruise against a Panthers team that is simply trying to avoid losing out but might not have the talent to do so.
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Pretty simple calculus here: the Vikings are playing a win/get in game against the Bears, who have already clinched the division but cannot clinch a bye unless the Rams lose to the 49ers. Matt Nagy comes from the Andy Reid school, which means he'll probably try and maximize rest for his players, which means anyone remotely questionable (Akiem Hicks, etc.) will sit out this game. He'll probably keep an eye on the scoreboard and if the Rams get up anything north of 10 points, he's going to yank his starters to avoid injury. Dalvin Cook runs wild and the Vikings cruise here.
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This is not a motivation bet, as I think the Browns will be hyped up to play against Baltimore in what essentially amounts to the closest thing they can get to a playoff game. The Browns would love nothing more than to spoil the Ravens' season, but I don't think Baker Mayfield is going to stroll into Baltimore and produce against a top-tier defense gunning for a division title. Love Baker, think he's the Rookie of the Year or at least should be, but this is a tough spot even with their motivation maxed out.
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Impossible game to predict/bet on right now because a) there's no line (so you literally cannot bet on it) and b) we don't know what Pete Carroll is going to do in this game in terms of playing his starters. The Seahawks need to win in order to guarantee they keep the No. 5 seed and avoid the Bears, but it's too hard to predict what seed you actually want here. The lowest remaining seed has to go to the Saints in the divisional round, so six is not ideal (but if three wins it's irrelevant). I would bet guys who are banged up (J.R. Sweezy) sit for this game, and if too many linemen are out, you could see Russell Wilson rest too.
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This is a tricky spot too: the Chargers need to win in order to have a shot at winning the AFC West and landing the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But if the Chiefs beat the Raiders, it won't matter. Los Angeles is saying the right stuff about being motivated, but you can't trust Anthony Lynn to start and play Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen in this game. I'll still take the Bolts laying points, though, because it looks like the Broncos have absolutely quit on Vance Joseph. He'd probably be fired if his team hadn't played on Christmas Eve.
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This line is shooting up and with good reason. The Rams are playing for a bye and they looked fine without Todd Gurley against the Cardinals. I expect they'll look fine without Gurley against the 49ers too, and I would look for Los Angeles to get up big in this game and then grind out the clock while trying to turn Nick Mullens over a few times. He was pressured bad against the Bears and it was just too much for him. Aaron Donald will do the same in a rout.
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Easy choice here, with Washington having nothing to play for and the Eagles battling for their playoff lives. Nick Foles is locked in and playing well and I would expect Doug Pederson to pull out the kitchen sink in this spot. No chance Josh Johnson and the Redskins offense can keep up the pace.
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I think the Raiders are putting together a promising close to the season and could keep this competitive, but I also think Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes REALLY want the first-round bye and home-field advantage. Lose this game and not only can they lose the division to the Chargers, but the Chiefs could cede home field to either Los Angeles or -- GASP -- the Patriots. They won't make that mistake and should pile on the points here against the Raiders.
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Cincinnati is very short on bodies, they're just playing out the string and the Steelers have to win this game in order to make the playoffs. They also need help, but this is a classic "blow someone out big" situation for the Steelers against an inferior opponent. Pittsburgh is a decent team to plug into a tease and watch them roll the Bengals and then pray for the Browns to pull something crazy off.
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Andrew Luck has literally NEVER LOST to the Titans in his career. You think he's going to start losing to them with a playoff spot on the line and potentially even the division on the line? No chance that's happening. Give me the Colts, even though I think Marcus Mariota will ultimately start this game.
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