Like the over more than anything in this game (51) but lean toward the Steelers, who are rolling right now, having won four in a row and swept the AFC North. The Panthers are great and will make this a close game, but Cam Newton is better on the road and Ben Roethlisberger is better at home, so I think the Steelers pull away in what should be an exciting Thursday night shootout.
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Bills (+7.5) at Jets
Hello, my name is Will Brinson and I am voluntarily choosing the Buffalo Bills against the spread for the second week in a row. This is a horrible game, featuring two of the top five defenses and two of the three worst offenses in the NFL.
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Browns (+4) vs. Falcons
The Browns just got beat up BAD by the Chiefs and the Falcons just beat up the Redskins bad and everyone is going to hammer the Falcons and somehow this line is only four points. It makes no sense. Give me Baker Mayfield and the Browns which would feel a lot better had I not also just taken the Bills and the points.
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Bengals (+5) vs. Saints
A.J. Green is out. The Bengals barely beat the Buccaneers two weeks ago. The Saints just stomped the Rams. They're ROLLING. What on earth is this line doing at just five points? GIVE ME THE HOME DOG.
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Redskins (+3) at Buccaneers
Very, very, very concerned with the loss of the offensive line starters (namely Brandon Scherff) for the Redskins over the long haul. I'd love to sell my Washington tickets for them winning the NFC East, but I don't think anyone is going to buy it. Still, I'll take a surprising bounceback this week by the Redskins against a terrible Tampa Bay defense spearheaded by Adrian Peterson.
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Titans (+6.5) vs. Patriots
Kind of a stupid reason for taking the Titans and a ton of points here, but I just don't think the Patriots and Bill Belichick will run up the score against Tennessee because of the respect he has for Mike Vrabel. The Titans showed some life against Dallas too, at least in terms of offense, and I think they can actually put a little pressure on Tom Brady. Closer game than people expect.
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Jaguars (+3) at Colts
The Jaguars stink. I get it. And I love the Colts, but I think the bye helps the Jaguars more and they should come out of it refreshed and ready to play some better defense. I don't think either team is going to blow out the other team, but if one team WAS going to blow out the other team, it would be the Jags blowing out the Colts with a healthy Leonard Fournette.
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Lions (+6.5) at Bears
The Bears just hammer jacked the Bills on the road and now come home to the friendly confines of Soldier Field. The Lions were snuffed out by the Vikings, making this an overreaction line. Detroit definitely misses Golden Tate, but Mitchell Trubisky isn't lighting up a Matt Patricia defense enough to win by a full touchdown.
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Cardinals (+16.5) at Chiefs
Terrified of stepping in front of this buzzsaw again, but this is just too many points, especially with the Chiefs likely to slow their roll if they get a lead and try to minimize any damage to Patrick Mahomes or skill position players. The Cardinals offense is going to show a little something here.
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Chargers (-10) at Raiders
This is an obscene amount of points, but I'm pretty sure the Chargers and Philip Rivers can name their price when it comes to how many points they win by in this spot. Oakland even has 10 days to rest, but they're just giving up at this point and can't stop or block anyone.
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Dolphins (+10) at Packers
TOO MANY POINTS even for Brock Osweiler on the road against Aaron Rodgers. The Packers will probably be up pretty big the whole game, but I can see Brock storming through the backdoor late with some short passes.
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Seahawks (+10) at Rams
The Rams are still really, really good, but they showed they have major weaknesses on defense. And the Seahawks can play some ball on the offensive side of the ball -- I think they come out with a much more focused offensive attack and feed Mike Davis to set up Russell Wilson, who will use his legs to avoid Aaron Donald. Seahawks keep this much closer than many think.
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Eagles (-6.5) vs. Cowboys
This line might be begging us to take the Eagles after the Cowboys looked bad on a short week, especially with Dallas desperate to save Jason Garrett's job. But the Eagles are coming off a bye, can stomp out a divisional opponent and are just a much better overall team. Plus they can bottle up Ezekiel Elliott and make the Cowboys one dimensional.
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49ers (-3) vs. Giants
Coaching matters and it matters here because Kyle Shanahan is one of the best coaches in football. He just keeps getting his quarterbacks open looks with his schemes and as a result I will ride the Nick Mullens train. This feels dangerous but the Giants are not good.
