FBL-WC-2022-TRAINING-FRA
Getty Images

Three days until the World Cup in Qatar! It's so close, you can basically feel the heat radiating out from the arid desert that forced the tournament to be played in winter instead of summer. I'm Mike Goodman and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Golazo Starting XI newsletter. 

Today's newsletter will focus on one of Europe's super powers looking to avoid a World Cup curse, listening to a USMNT legend offer his lineup opinions and making some picks about who's moving on from the group. Let's get you caught up as the excitement finally starts to kick in. 

Remember, when the World Cup ends and Champions League resumes you'll be able to catch all the action on Paramount+. Use offer code ALLYEAR now to get 50% off the annual plan. We've got UEFA club competitions, Serie A, NWSL, FA Women's Super League and more just one click away.

⚽  The Forward Line

Can France avoid a World Cup curse?

In each of the last three World Cups, the reigning champs have been eliminated in the group stage. Italy won in 2006, finished behind Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand in their 2010 group. Spain took the crown in 2010 and finished behind the Netherlands (who they beat in the 2010 final) and Chile in 2014. Germany won it all in 2014, then finished dead last behind Sweden, Mexico and South Korea. Can France fair better?

The answer is yes, but the reasoning is fairly counterintuitive, so stay with me here. France is going through an injury crisis, but they shouldn't treat it as if the sky is falling. One of the biggest challenges for the defending champions in any competition is that there's always the temptation to just run back the same crew four years later. But that's a really long time in sports. If you aren't turning over a team like you should, well, guys get old, lose their edge and things just go ever so slightly sour. And that's all it takes to go crashing out.

France won't have that option. In midfield, Blaise Matuidi retired and then their two superstars, Paul Pogba and N'Golo Kante, who are now 29 and 31, respectively. Though we might refer to them in soccer years as "experienced," their injuries clear the path for Real Madrid youngsters Aurelian Tchouameni, 22, and Eduardo Camavinga, 20. The duo are stupidly skilled for any age, but those young legs are sure to help when you've got to play every three days for a month. Is this France team better than the 2018 version? Probably not. But, that's not the most relevant question. The real question is whether this version is better than the 2018 team would have been in 2022. The answer there is that they quite possible are. Check out our resident France expert Jonathan Johnson's picks. He has Les Bleus making it to the quarterfinals.

More of that glorious World Cup content:

🔗  Midfield Link Play

Donovan wants Yedlin in his USMNT XI

luis-suarez-getty-images-atletico.jpg
Getty Images

Speaking to our In Soccer We Trust Podcast, Landon Donovan was clear that he felt that at right back veteran DeAndre Yedlin, and not youngster Sergino Dest, should start. Dest is a promising rising star, who has already seen his career take him from Ajax to Barcelona to AC Milan, albeit with struggles for playing time at the last two spots. Donovan thinks his defensive liabilities are too severe, but as Chuck Booth writes, a functioning USMNT midfield can cover for those problems.

Now, let's hit some links:

💰  The Back Lines

Best bets

Let's look ahead to the group stage for the World Cup. 

All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

  • Group E to Advance (Germany, Spain, Japan, Costa Rica)
    💰 THE PICK: Japan (+333). Group E is a tough group to bet. Spain and Germany are two of the best teams in the world, and it's hard to pick between them to find a group winner. But for the relative long shot price of +333, you can effectively bet on one of them tripping up. And neither of these two teams are quite as good as their vintage versions. Japan would be considered an exciting underdog pick to make a run if they had drawn an easier group. All it'll take is one surprising result for them to shock the world.
  • Group F Winner (Belgium, Croatia, Morocco, Canada)
    💰 THE PICK: Croatia (+240).     If I could easily bet on Belgium to get eliminated in the group stage, I would. They're -800 to advance and a team ripe for tripping themselves up. Their golden generation is past their prime, their striker Romelu Lukaku is rushing back from injury, their defensive line is a mess and it's all worse than it should be. So Croatia (who, to be fair, one could argue also suffers from some of these problems) becomes the most likely to win the group. I don't love them this time around, but I like them a lot more at +240 to win the group than Belgium at -167. And honestly don't sleep on Morocco shocking the world at +800
  • Group G to Advance: (Brazil, Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon)
    💰 THE PICK: Switzerland (+100).     The market basically views Switzerland and Serbia as toss ups. I don't. This Swiss team is, fittingly enough, just ruthlessly efficient. They've been punching above their weight in Europe this entire World Cup cycle, including a solid run to the quarterfinals of the Euros where they took out France on before losing to Spain on penalties. Serbia have lots of talent, but they don't have anything like that on their resume.